Today’s crazy fantasy stat: Why you should draft Drew Brees over Tom Brady

Which QB was better for fantasy last year? Which will be better this year?

| 6 months ago
(Elsa/Getty Images)

(Elsa/Getty Images)

Today’s crazy fantasy stat: Why you should draft Drew Brees over Tom Brady


Last season, Tom Brady of the New England Patriots put up 351 fantasy points. New Orleans Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees offered 319. Both finished in the top six at the position in fantasy scoring, and big totals are fairly regular for both longtime starters.

Which brings us to today’s Fantasy Stat of the Day: 2015 was the first year since 2010 that Tom Brady outscored Drew Brees in fantasy. The last five years, Brees has averaged 357.6 fantasy points a season, compared to 327.6 for Brady.

Per current average draft position on Fantasy Football Calculator, Brady is going sixth among quarterbacks in early 2016 fantasy drafts, with Brees just behind him in seventh. This despite the above stat, and despite the fact that Brady is slated to miss the season’s first four games to a suspension. Our own PFF ranks currently have Brees fifth at the position, with Brady seventh. Brady’s superior 2015 even had help, with Brees missing a game and battling a shoulder injury.

That’s not it, either. Brees is going behind Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in early drafts as well. Our own Mike Tagliere wrote that Brees will continue to outshine Roethlisberger in 2016. The above is only one piece of data, but from here, it certainly looks like Drew Brees is underrated going into 2016 drafts. His consistency is worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, Brady might be getting a little overrated; his 351 in 2015 was his second-highest total since his 2007 MVP season, and he’s finished with fewer than 310 fantasy points three times in seven seasons since (Brady missed virtually all of the 2008 season to injury), including the two seasons just before his big 2015. Off of a near-MVP season, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer is going after Brady, as are Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, who has weapons aplenty, and Oakland’s Derek Carr, who made a huge leap from his rookie year to last year, and has room to improve yet. Brady probably should be going ahead of them, even with his suspension, but considering the dropoff in overall ADP and the moderate risk Brady carries, the next guys might offer a better return on investment.

| Fantasy Editor

Daniel Kelley is the fantasy editor for Pro Football Focus. He has previously appeared at SB Nation.

  • majesstik1

    There are some good points made here. However, I think we should be putting more weight into the new year than past performance. While Brees is likely to outscore Brady over the course of the season, due to the suspension, I look at the situations these guys are in. Brady has a superior supporting cast, has a softer schedule, and more importantly may have the better fantasy playoff schedule. Brees @ARI in your championship week means you’re likely falling into the 3rd place game. Brady is @DEN the same week, and by comparison Brady put up 280yds and 3TDs @DEN in 2015 and Brees put up 355yds and 1 TD @ARI. DEN struggles vs the TE, where Gronk an Bennett are likely to help a P.O’d Brady maintain that stat line.

    Both are likely to be drafted higher than I’m willing to spend on a QB. I’d rather have T-Mobile at home for the 3 games in the fantasy playoffs against PIT/CLE/MIA 😉

  • majesstik1

    *conference championship week, in the comparison above. not championship week.