The ultimate team sport, the NFL rarely produces a player statistic that doesn’t require context. Touchdown totals are influenced by opportunity, height/weight, and a team’s offensive prowess. Yardage can be distorted by big plays and defensive ability. And that’s just scratching the surface. The variables that construct an individual player statistic are nearly infinite, which certainly doesn’t make the prognostication aspect of the game particularly simple.
Fortunately, our team of analysts here at PFF continues to change the game. By charting every aspect of every play, we can normalize these statistics based on the most-significant underlying influencers.
Earlier this offseason, I analyzed the impact of depth on quarterback completion percentage and defensive packages on yards-per-carry.
Today, I’ll be examining the impact of target location and quarterback play on each player’s catch rate.
Location-adjusted
In the past, target location was limited to the depth of target. The further down field a player is when targeted, the less likely he is to catch the pass. This year, the horizontal location of the throw is also in play. This is an important upgrade to the formula, as not all depths are created equal. Consider the below heat map, which splits catch rates based on the vertical and horizontal throw distance.
We’ll kick off the best in the business. The players shown in the below chart exceeded their expected catch rates by the largest margins during the 2014 season. Players who saw 60 or more targets are included.
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Diff |
| 1 | Kenny Stills | 80 | 63 | 12.6 | 79% | 59% | 20% |
| 2 | Brandin Cooks | 65 | 53 | 8.5 | 82% | 67% | 14% |
| 3 | Travis Kelce | 80 | 66 | 6.3 | 83% | 70% | 12% |
| 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | 155 | 108 | 13.0 | 70% | 60% | 10% |
| 5 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 129 | 91 | 12.3 | 71% | 61% | 10% |
| 6 | Antonio Brown | 192 | 138 | 10.7 | 72% | 63% | 9% |
| 7 | Jason Witten | 101 | 75 | 9.4 | 74% | 66% | 9% |
| 8 | Niles Paul | 51 | 39 | 7.8 | 76% | 68% | 9% |
| 9 | Randall Cobb | 145 | 106 | 9.3 | 73% | 65% | 8% |
| 10 | Pierre Thomas | 50 | 45 | -1.2 | 90% | 82% | 8% |
| 11 | Eddie Royal | 86 | 62 | 10.4 | 72% | 64% | 8% |
| 12 | Jarvis Landry | 105 | 84 | 5.4 | 80% | 72% | 8% |
| 13 | Doug Baldwin | 104 | 76 | 9.5 | 73% | 66% | 7% |
| 14 | DeMarco Murray | 68 | 61 | -1.2 | 90% | 83% | 7% |
| 15 | Malcom Floyd | 86 | 52 | 18.1 | 60% | 53% | 7% |
| 16 | Marshawn Lynch | 50 | 42 | 0.7 | 84% | 77% | 7% |
| 17 | Larry Donnell | 87 | 63 | 8.6 | 72% | 66% | 7% |
| 18 | Dez Bryant | 142 | 94 | 12.9 | 66% | 60% | 6% |
| 19 | Jermaine Gresham | 78 | 62 | 4.5 | 79% | 73% | 6% |
| 20 | Jordy Nelson | 159 | 105 | 12.0 | 66% | 60% | 6% |
If you read this piece last year, the name at the top of the board won’t surprise you. For the second consecutive season, Kenny Stills stands above the rest. Stills has a reputation as a situational deep threat, but he’s so much more. Consider that his 82 percent career catch rate on targets 20 yards or less downfield is tops in the NFL since 2007. On 130 career targets, Stills’ catch rate is 75 percent despite a hefty 14.3 average depth of target. That’s 17.7 percentage points above expected based on target location (58 percent). Not only is that best in the NFL – it’s six percentage points ahead of second place (Tim Wright) during the two-year span. Once quarterback is factored in, Stills’ remains atop the board at 15 percent.
Travis Kelce had an outstanding 2014 season, but note that his 83 percent catch rate was heavily influenced by target location and quarterback play. Kelce’s expected catch rate of 70 percent was topped by only four non-running backs. I’m getting a bit ahead of myself here, but when I show this same chart later except with the influence of quarterback play added in, Kelce will not be in the Top 15. Alex Smith is exceptionally accurate on short-to-mid-range throws, which helped boost Kelce’s catch rate. There’s a lot to like about Kelce, but is stat line figures to normalize a bit this year, especially in the catch rate and post-catch yardage departments.
There are quite a few well-known/reliable targets on the list (Antonio Brown, Jason Witten, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson), but we also see a few emerging and/or potential breakout players, including Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham, Niles Paul, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Donnell. Landry is especially notable because many traced his high catch rate solely to an absurdly-low 5.4 average depth of target (aDOT). That obviously is a big factor, but Landry’s 80 percent catch rate was still well above expected (72 percent).
Next, we head to the opposite end of the spectrum. These are players who fell short of their expected catch rates by the largest margins.
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Diff |
| 131 | Cecil Shorts | 102 | 53 | 9.1 | 52% | 65% | -13% |
| 130 | Darren Sproles | 60 | 40 | 1.0 | 67% | 79% | -12% |
| 129 | Justin Hunter | 66 | 28 | 16.3 | 42% | 53% | -11% |
| 128 | Andre Roberts | 68 | 36 | 10.3 | 53% | 63% | -10% |
| 127 | Jared Cook | 91 | 52 | 9.1 | 57% | 66% | -9% |
| 126 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 58 | 33 | 10.2 | 57% | 65% | -8% |
| 125 | Jason Avant | 58 | 34 | 9.0 | 59% | 67% | -8% |
| 124 | Arian Foster | 56 | 38 | 3.1 | 68% | 75% | -7% |
| 123 | Reggie Wayne | 115 | 65 | 10.2 | 57% | 63% | -7% |
| 122 | Marcel Reece | 54 | 37 | 3.2 | 69% | 75% | -7% |
| 121 | Sammy Watkins | 124 | 65 | 13.5 | 52% | 59% | -7% |
| 120 | Taylor Gabriel | 71 | 38 | 14.2 | 54% | 60% | -6% |
| 119 | Jeremy Kerley | 64 | 38 | 9.4 | 59% | 65% | -6% |
| 118 | Joique Bell | 51 | 38 | 0.0 | 75% | 80% | -6% |
| 117 | Marqise Lee | 61 | 37 | 8.2 | 61% | 66% | -6% |
| 116 | Mohamed Sanu | 104 | 59 | 10.8 | 57% | 62% | -5% |
| 115 | Allen Hurns | 91 | 51 | 11.3 | 56% | 61% | -5% |
| 114 | Matt Asiata | 58 | 44 | -0.9 | 76% | 81% | -5% |
| 113 | John Brown | 99 | 52 | 15.2 | 53% | 57% | -5% |
| 112 | Andre Holmes | 91 | 47 | 14.8 | 52% | 56% | -4% |
As if his durability issues weren’t enough of a problem, Cecil Shorts had a rough on-field campaign last season. Shorts barely caught half his targets despite a manageable 9.1 average depth of target. As we’ll visit later on, Blake Bortles was only a mild factor in Shorts’ underwhelming play.
It’s far from surprising to see 2014 busts Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson here, but the presence of Sammy Watkins and John Brown should catch your eye. Watkins ranked 16th among wide receivers in targets as a rookie, but hauled in a miserable 52 percent of his looks. Brown’s 57 percent expected catch rate is 14th-lowest in our sample, but he still fell short of the mark. Once quarterback is factored in, the data shows that Brown was no better or worse than pedestrian in this department last year.
Considering how efficient he’s been over the past decade, it shocked me to see Darren Sproles near the top of this list. At +8 percent, Sproles put up the 19th best mark in this category in 2013. This past season – his first in Philadelphia – Sproles caught a miserable two-thirds of his targets. That’s despite a manageable 1.0 aDOT, which was actually nearly a full yard lower than his 2013 mark. Sproles’ struggles were only slightly impacted by Philadelphia’s porous quarterback play, which suggests his age could be becoming a detriment to his game.
Location- and Quarterback-adjusted
Our next two charts will look similar to the first pair, but this time quarterback play is factored into the expected rates. We, of course, will always expect better efficiency from players catching passes from Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers than those working with Mark Sanchez and Brian Hoyer.
Our next chart shows the players who exceeded their expected catch rates by the largest margins during the 2014 season.
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Diff |
| 1 | Kenny Stills | 80 | 63 | 12.6 | 79% | 63% | 15% |
| 2 | Miles Austin | 67 | 47 | 9.3 | 70% | 58% | 12% |
| 3 | Brandin Cooks | 65 | 53 | 8.5 | 82% | 70% | 11% |
| 4 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 129 | 91 | 12.3 | 71% | 60% | 11% |
| 5 | Mike Evans | 116 | 68 | 15.8 | 59% | 50% | 9% |
| 6 | Niles Paul | 51 | 39 | 7.8 | 76% | 68% | 8% |
| 7 | Greg Olsen | 131 | 91 | 8.8 | 69% | 62% | 8% |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | 155 | 108 | 13.0 | 70% | 62% | 8% |
| 9 | DeAndre Hopkins | 120 | 76 | 13.4 | 63% | 56% | 8% |
| 10 | Zach Ertz | 86 | 58 | 10.9 | 67% | 60% | 7% |
| 11 | Larry Donnell | 87 | 63 | 8.6 | 72% | 65% | 7% |
| 12 | Jerricho Cotchery | 83 | 54 | 10.8 | 65% | 58% | 7% |
| 13 | Golden Tate | 145 | 105 | 8.3 | 72% | 66% | 7% |
| 14 | Doug Baldwin | 104 | 76 | 9.5 | 73% | 67% | 6% |
| 15 | Anquan Boldin | 121 | 83 | 9.6 | 69% | 63% | 6% |
| 16 | Eric Decker | 110 | 74 | 11.3 | 67% | 61% | 6% |
| 17 | Travis Kelce | 80 | 66 | 6.3 | 83% | 77% | 6% |
| 18 | Eddie Royal | 86 | 62 | 10.4 | 72% | 66% | 6% |
| 19 | Randall Cobb | 145 | 106 | 9.3 | 73% | 68% | 5% |
| 20 | Jason Witten | 101 | 75 | 9.4 | 74% | 69% | 5% |
Brandin Cooks sat second on our non-passer-adjusted list earlier, but because I was intrigued to see how much Drew Brees played into that, I waited to mention him. Brees, of course, impacted Cooks’ catch rate, but not by a significant margin. Cooks’ low average depth of target allowed him plenty of high percentage targets, and he clearly took advantage. It’s unreasonable to expect Cooks to haul in over 80 percent of his targets again this year, but 100 catches over a full season is certainly manageable.
Yes, he’s on the wrong side of 30, but Miles Austin is still a good player. In 2014, his first with Cleveland, Austin sat 43rd among wide receivers in receptions prior to a season-ending kidney injury. Used primarily in the short-to-mid range, Austin’s expected catch rate sat at 64 percent. Of course, once we add in the awful quarterback play of Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel, that number dips to 58 percent. Austin managed to catch 70 percent of his looks, which was exceptional considering the circumstances. Now in Philadelphia, Austin should be considered a real contender for the team’s No. 2 gig opposite Jordan Matthews.
Same as Austin, Mike Evans was not on this list before we included the impact of quarterback play. Considering he was catching passes from Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, the jump shouldn’t be a surprise. Evan’s rookie-season catch rate of 59 percent doesn’t jump off the page, but it should when you consider both the aforementioned quarterback play and his 15.8 aDOT (10th highest). Utilizing his massive 6’5” frame, Evans hauled in 11 of 24 deep balls. That 46 percent catch rate was well above both his 23 percent expected rate and the 29 percent league average.
Next, we have the players who fell short of their expected catch rates by the largest margins once quarterback play is mixed in.
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Diff |
| 131 | Cecil Shorts | 102 | 53 | 9.1 | 52% | 63% | -11% |
| 130 | Cordarrelle Patterson | 58 | 33 | 10.2 | 57% | 68% | -11% |
| 129 | Darren Sproles | 60 | 40 | 1.0 | 67% | 77% | -11% |
| 128 | Jamaal Charles | 52 | 40 | -0.7 | 77% | 87% | -10% |
| 127 | Andre Roberts | 68 | 36 | 10.3 | 53% | 63% | -10% |
| 126 | Jared Cook | 91 | 52 | 9.1 | 57% | 66% | -9% |
| 125 | Jason Avant | 58 | 34 | 9.0 | 59% | 67% | -9% |
| 124 | Justin Hunter | 66 | 28 | 16.3 | 42% | 51% | -9% |
| 123 | Matt Asiata | 58 | 44 | -0.9 | 76% | 84% | -8% |
| 122 | Reggie Wayne | 115 | 65 | 10.2 | 57% | 65% | -8% |
| 121 | Sammy Watkins | 124 | 65 | 13.5 | 52% | 60% | -7% |
| 120 | Arian Foster | 56 | 38 | 3.1 | 68% | 75% | -7% |
| 119 | Mohamed Sanu | 104 | 59 | 10.8 | 57% | 64% | -7% |
| 118 | Marcel Reece | 54 | 37 | 3.2 | 69% | 75% | -7% |
| 117 | Danny Amendola | 57 | 38 | 7.0 | 67% | 73% | -6% |
| 116 | Charles Johnson | 55 | 31 | 15.3 | 56% | 62% | -5% |
| 115 | Jeremy Kerley | 64 | 38 | 9.4 | 59% | 65% | -5% |
| 114 | Dwayne Bowe | 90 | 60 | 9.2 | 67% | 72% | -5% |
| 113 | Justin Forsett | 60 | 47 | -1.2 | 78% | 83% | -5% |
| 112 | Eddie Lacy | 54 | 43 | -0.3 | 80% | 84% | -5% |
Same as with Sproles earlier, I was shocked to see Jamaal Charles on a naughty list in the receiving category. Charles struggled on balls thrown near or behind the line of scrimmage, hauling in only 31 of 41 (76 percent). Considering aforementioned savvy-short-tosser Smith was throwing the passes, Charles should’ve been closer to 90 percent.
Patterson was above average as a mid-range target, but caught only 10 of 16 short throws and 1 of 10 deep balls. Teddy Bridgewater was very efficient as a rookie, which makes Patterson’s struggles look even worse, and helps explain his demotion in favor of Charles Johnson.
Considering the offensive coordinator change in Baltimore, I was intrigued to see Justin Forsett on this list. Five percentage points isn’t a massive mark, but it’s notable that Forsett came up short of his expected catch rate. OC Marc Trestman has a history of keeping his top back busy in the passing game, but any struggles from Forsett in this department figure to lead to more work for rookie Buck Allen.
Expected Catch Rates
As a final exercise, the next two charts show the highest and lowest expected catch rates in each category. For the most part, these will align with aDOT, but, as noted earlier, the horizontal location of each throw is also a factor. Note that running backs were eliminated here, as they would’ve dominated both ‘low’ categories.
Location-Adjusted
| Highest Expected Catch % | Lowest Expected Catch % | |||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | |
| 1 | Jermaine Gresham | 78 | 62 | 4.5 | 79% | 73% | 1 | Michael Floyd | 95 | 48 | 18.7 | 51% | 52% | |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | 105 | 84 | 5.4 | 80% | 72% | 2 | Martavis Bryant | 57 | 31 | 18.7 | 54% | 53% | |
| 3 | Jordan Reed | 65 | 50 | 4.7 | 77% | 72% | 3 | Justin Hunter | 66 | 28 | 16.3 | 42% | 53% | |
| 4 | Cole Beasley | 59 | 44 | 6.7 | 75% | 70% | 4 | Malcom Floyd | 86 | 52 | 18.1 | 60% | 53% | |
| 5 | Travis Kelce | 80 | 66 | 6.3 | 83% | 70% | 5 | Mike Evans | 116 | 68 | 15.8 | 59% | 54% | |
| 6 | Martellus Bennett | 125 | 90 | 6.5 | 72% | 70% | 6 | Terrance Williams | 70 | 41 | 16.9 | 59% | 55% | |
| 7 | Wes Welker | 66 | 50 | 6.3 | 76% | 70% | 7 | Vincent Jackson | 138 | 70 | 15.0 | 51% | 55% | |
| 8 | Danny Amendola | 57 | 38 | 7.0 | 67% | 69% | 8 | Kenny Britt | 81 | 48 | 16.3 | 59% | 56% | |
| 9 | Percy Harvin | 76 | 51 | 7.7 | 67% | 69% | 9 | Torrey Smith | 101 | 54 | 16.8 | 53% | 56% | |
| 10 | John Carlson | 53 | 36 | 7.1 | 68% | 69% | 10 | Andre Holmes | 91 | 47 | 14.8 | 52% | 56% | |
Location- and Quarterback-adjusted
| Highest Expected Catch % | Lowest Expected Catch % | |||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | Rk | Player | Targ | Rec | aDOT | Catch% | Exp C% | |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | 80 | 66 | 6.3 | 83% | 77% | 1 | Michael Floyd | 95 | 48 | 18.7 | 51% | 47% | |
| 2 | Jarvis Landry | 105 | 84 | 5.4 | 80% | 75% | 2 | Mike Evans | 116 | 68 | 15.8 | 59% | 50% | |
| 3 | Jermaine Gresham | 78 | 62 | 4.5 | 79% | 75% | 3 | Vincent Jackson | 138 | 70 | 15.0 | 51% | 51% | |
| 4 | Cole Beasley | 59 | 44 | 6.7 | 75% | 74% | 4 | Justin Hunter | 66 | 28 | 16.3 | 42% | 51% | |
| 5 | Jordan Reed | 65 | 50 | 4.7 | 77% | 73% | 5 | John Brown | 99 | 52 | 15.2 | 53% | 52% | |
| 6 | Danny Amendola | 57 | 38 | 7.0 | 67% | 73% | 6 | Kelvin Benjamin | 158 | 84 | 14.6 | 53% | 53% | |
| 7 | Wes Welker | 66 | 50 | 6.3 | 76% | 73% | 7 | Nate Washington | 71 | 40 | 14.3 | 56% | 54% | |
| 8 | Martellus Bennett | 125 | 90 | 6.5 | 72% | 72% | 8 | Calvin Johnson | 131 | 76 | 15.6 | 58% | 54% | |
| 9 | Heath Miller | 98 | 72 | 7.6 | 73% | 72% | 9 | Andre Holmes | 91 | 47 | 14.8 | 52% | 55% | |
| 10 | Dwayne Bowe | 90 | 60 | 9.2 | 67% | 72% | 10 | Taylor Gabriel | 71 | 38 | 14.2 | 54% | 55% | |
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