Production doesn’t tell full story for Wilson

| 3 years ago

Production doesn’t tell full story for Wilson

PFF-headlinesAccording to the box score, last night’s display looks like a supremely efficient display from Russell Wilson but sometimes the stats hide the full story of a player’s performance. His display last night earned him a 110.9 NFL passer rating but that translated into a -2.2 PFF passing grade.

What the box score fails to see were some poor decisions that his receivers bailed him out on and a largely YAC-oriented passing attack. Twice Wilson put the ball in the hands of Green Bay defenders and twice he was bailed out by his targeted receiver.

The first came midway through the first quarter attempting to force a ball into Zach Miller on a hitch which Sam Shields broke up (he might rue not intercepting it) and then Miller had to knock the ball out of Brad Jones’ hands off of the tip.

Toward the end of the second quarter he almost gifted Ha Ha Clinton-Dix an interception on his NFL debut. Throwing late across field, Clinton-Dix was underneath Doug Baldwin down the left sideline and Wilson required Baldwin to turn defensive back for a play to break up the pass. A shot to nothing perhaps, given the game situation, but an ill-advised and poorly-executed shot to nothing.

More than 50% of Wilson’s passing yards (117 of 191) came after the catch with the likes of Percy Harvin (38 of 59 yards after the catch), Ricardo Lockette (23 of 38) and his backs helping to transform short throws into longer gains. He was efficient and accurate on these shorter passes but without the input of his receivers both after the catch and as de facto defenders, Wilson’s stat line would have had a very different look based on the exact same performance by Wilson himself.

| Director of Analysis

Ben joined Pro Football Focus in 2007, and has since been in charge of the company’s analysis process. He also contributes to PFF’s weekly NFL podcast.

  • [email protected]

    Not one of his better games for sure. Its nice to see him get lucky for once, his rookie season most of his interceptions were fluke plays or the receivers fault.

  • Greg

    I thought Wilson was efficient early and showed a quick release. The YAC yards on Lockette’s TD were a result of a great fake by Wilson and the YAC yards for Harvin were designed plays to get him the ball in space. I don’t think you can discredit Wilson for that. Also, he showed great awareness of when to throw the ball away and kept drives going late in the game with effective scrambling. I thought he should have a positive grade for the game.

  • Dohkay

    Alex Smith 2.0. If only Alex had an all-world defense instead of an almost-all-world defense. Maybe he’d have a ring, too.

    • Tom

      Uh, no.

      • Dohkay

        No? In 4 of his 5 playoff games he’s averaged 14-23, 178 yards, 1 TD 0 INTs and 5 rushes for 27 yards. Let’s throw his outlier game from ATL in there, too. 16-26, 219 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.2 INTs to go with 5 rushes, 34 yards, and 0.2 TDs.

        Alex Smith in his 3 playoff games has averaged 22-38, 291 yards, 3 TDs 0 INTs and 5 rushes, 42 yards, and 0.3 TDs.

        The difference of course is that Russ has the best defense since the ’85 Bears. Consider his team was up 22-0 against Peyton Manning at half time of the SB when he was something like 9-14 for 100 yards and 0 TDs. Can you imagine if his defense was merely above-average?

        • Chris

          My god someone on here with brains!!

        • Michael

          I can think of a few other differences. Russell did all of what you’re saying in his first 2 years, where as Alex Smith didn’t even sniff the playoffs until his 6th year on the job. I might also mention how Russell Wilson has thrown for 26 TD’s in each of his first two seasons; a mark that Alex Smith has never reached in any of his 8 years in the league. Lastly I would point out that Russell’s 7.08 career ANY/PA is MUCH BETTER than the 5.18 mark that Smith checks in at. But yeah… other than that they are totally the same.

        • Brandon

          People keep saying that. Other than the KC and Indy game last year no QB had big passing days. It’s bigger not to make mistakes. Wilson played just as well as any other QB in last year playoffs.

    • brett987654321

      Similar in that they avoid costly mistakes. But Wilson is much more dynamic than Alex Smith. The Niners would have been better off with him rather than Kaepernick the last couple years. Kaepernick is very dynamic but makes a ton of costly errors at key times.

      • Dohkay

        Last 3 years for Smith (41 games) compared to last 2 years for Wilson (32 games) and their per game averages.

        Smith: 18-29, 200 yards, 1.3 TDs, 0.4 INTs, 0.4 FUM, 4 rush, 18 yards, 0.1 TDs

        Wilson: 16-25, 202 yards, 1.6 TDs, 0.6 INTs, 0.5 FUM, 6 rush, 32 yards, 0.2 TDs

        Slightly more production and slightly more mistakes. Eerily similar. Again, Alex Smith 2.0. Though Smith has performed much better in the playoffs (see my point below) albeit with very small sample sizes for both players.

        • Steve Schwarz

          Dohkay…Like so many who undervalue Russell, I suspect you’re a slave to the Fantasy Football mentality.

          It’s not about stats and who can score you the most points. It’s about winning NFL games. That includes so many things that don’t show on a stat sheet.

          You need to actually watch Russell play. And, more importantly, understand football. One you do, the argument ends.

          • Dohkay

            Steve, you have illuminated my football mind with that incredible logic. Winning NFL games. Alex Smith is 31-9-1 over those 41 games. Russell Wilson is 24-8 over those 32 games. Alex’s win pct: 75.6%; Russel’s win pct: 75.0%.


          • Steve Schwarz

            Dohkay…You can try to prove your point by pulling out stats. But it’s clear you don’t watch football with an educated eye.

            Where’s your stat for how each QB performs when the chips are down and the pressure is highest? Please get back to me on that one.

          • Dohkay

            You told me all that matters is winning. I showed you that Smith and Wilson are equal in those regards. Now your counterpoint is another cliche about who performs best “when the chips are down and the pressure is highest”. Fine. Would you say that time would be the playoffs?

            From my reply to another poster…

            Russell Wilson in his 5 playoff games has averaged 16-26, 219 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.2 INTs to go with 5 rushes, 34 yards, and 0.2 TDs.

            Alex Smith in his 3 playoff games has averaged 22-38, 291 yards, 3 TDs 0 INTs and 5 rushes, 42 yards, and 0.3 TDs.

            Who outperformed who based on the above? This is the part where you go back to cliche #1 and tell me all that matters is winning.

            Of course, when your defense gives up 17 PPG it’s easy to go 4-1 (Wilson of course lost the only game where they gave up more than 2 TDs and a FG) versus Alex Smith whose defense gave up an average of 32 PPG leading to his 1-2 record despite compiling 10 TDs and no TOs compared to Wilson’s 7 TDs and 1 TO in 2 more games.

          • Steve Schwarz

            And how many of those Alex Smith games were with the 49ers, who had the best D in the NFL until barely surpassed by the Hawks last year?

            That’s why guys who can’t watch and truly understand football always run to the stats.

            I’m done wasting my time arguing. You just keep blindly reading the numbers.

          • sc42

            Niners D was never as good as this Seattle D. Smith’s first playoff game against NO, they gave up 32 and the Niners won. Seattle has given up 30+ once in Wilson’s 38 career games.

          • Troy

            Wilson haters (and Seahawks haters in general – in particular 49ers fans) need to find something negative to point at to prove they’re not as good as they appear to be…both individually and as a team. The stats may show similar numbers…and I think Alex Smith is a solid QB….but what the stats don’t show is at what points in those big games Smith made the errant throws. Wilson is in his 3rd year. Noone with any sense is comparing him to Joe Montana or Brady or Manning or Brees. Regardless, while he may not be spectacular, and while he’s rarely called upon to win games for the team with his arm (though, he certainly has on more than one occasion), what he doesn’t do is lose games for his team by making critical errors in judgement. What kind of defenses has Smith been playing against in the AFC West (I’ll answer for you – LOUSY ones)?…and even the NFC West for the majority of his time there (it was considered the very worst division in football for much of the time he was there and the 49ers were the only team considered to be any good)…so it’s still a bad comparison.

          • sc42

            I think Wilson is a much better QB than Smith. Smith played against no good defenses last year. Wilson is compared to Brady, and Manning. People were talking him up as the MVP last year, until he played pretty poorly down the stretch.

            The comment above was that Smith had the best defense just like Wilson does. But those defenses weren’t close.

          • Troy

            I personally think Wilson is a better QB than Smith, as well….but, I don’t think Smith is a bad QB….Again….the competition they faced isn’t comparable. The NFC West (and NFC as a whole) is far tougher on the defensive side of the ball than anything Alex Smith ever faced….and now in the AFC West, the defenses he faces are even more pathetic (though Denver should be improved).

          • Dohkay

            Football Outsiders had the 9ers as the third best D in 2011. Hawks have had the second and now first ranked defenses in Russell’s two years in the NFL and the 2013 defense destroys the 2011 9ers defense according to FO and anyone with a semi-functioning brain.

            Again, in Russell’s playoff games he’s needed to score an average of 18 points to win. Smith has needed to score an average of 33. Do you understand?

          • Troy

            If your point is to try to disparage Wilson by comparing him to Alex Smith, then you’re missing the boat. Since Wilson took over at QB, he has been playing in what most would consider the best division in football (not to mention how much tougher the entire NFC is now compared to the AFC)…particularly on the defensive side of the ball. His task has been far tougher than Smith’s ever was. Smith played against bad teams in the NFC West for most of his tenure, which were only just beginning to play well the year he lost his job to Kaeperpunk and was subsequently jettisoned to the Chiefs.

          • Dohkay

            My point is that both are asked to do the exact same thing. Don’t lose the game for us. Wilson is probably the 5th most important player on his own team behind Thomas, Sherman, Lynch, Harvin or Bennett or Irvin or Chancellor.

            You beat Seattle by scoring on their defense or shutting down Lynch and now apparently Harvin too. Wilson is a game manager just as Alex Smith is. Both can put up great efficiency stats and win tons of games when they have the talent around them.

            I’ll take Luck over Wilson any day. Terrible supporting cast but he still manages to win.

          • eYeDEF

            The bottom line is still that you have no idea whether he’d be able to carry the team on his own. I don’t either but the empirical evidence supports that he would because he has engineered 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives on par with Andrew Luck when the occasion calls for it and has been outstanding in the times when the team has had to rely on him. He also did it at a constant clip in college, there’s nothing in his background to suggest he’s not capable if he was in relied upon to be. So you calling him ‘mediocre’ is just your stilted bias talking. You can’t fairly judge a player as being ‘mediocre’ based on how you imagine he would play in a different system. If someone says he’s a ‘game manager’ because he hasn’t had an opportunity to show otherwise on a consistent basis because of the team he plays on, then even if I don’t agree, I’d accept that as a fair opinion. But you saying he’s ‘mediocre’ because he plays in a system where he’s not consistently relied upon to do more demonstrates that you never had any interest in objective analysis in the first place. You prove you’re a hater because you can’t base such an assessment on empirical facts.

          • Dohkay

            Wilson has the opportunity to win every game because of his defense. How many QBs have a chance at a game winning drive despite only producing 10-14 points to that point? His defense puts him in an excellent position to do so. Further, how many QBs lead their teams to game winning drives only to watch their defense surrender one themselves? Another benefit of playing with one of the best defenses ever.

            Football is the ultimate team sport and while QB is the most important position in the NFL, it really isn’t for Seattle (or the 49ers or Chiefs, for that matter). That’s a credit to the team they built and the schemes they use and it’s clearly worked.

          • eYeDEF

            That happened to Wilson in the 2012 playoffs against Atlanta when he rallied the team and the defense couldn’t hold. So that destroys your argument that it doesn’t happen to him.

            You’re splitting hairs because you know you have no argument. Nothing you’ve said comes close to proving he is ‘mediocre’ when his play has been anything but mediocre.

          • Dohkay

            You should take a look at his GWDs by the way. Two occurred with 7 minutes left, one with 10 minutes left, and one with 14 minutes left. There’s also the Fail Mary being counted. Nice! Helps having an amazing defense to hold those leads and a few replacement refs to boot. Now go look at Luck’s. Hint: they tend to take place with 2 minutes or less remaining…

          • eYeDEF

            Hahahaha. So that’s all you got? Your argument that Wilson is mediocre boils down to the fail mary pass against Green Bay and that he left 7 minutes in one game and 10 minutes in another after rallying his team to victory?!! LOLOLOLOLOLOL! Epic fail on your part. Thank you ahead of time for the muffled embarrassed-for-you laughs.

          • Dohkay

            Um, what? Two of his “game winning drives” ended with 7 minutes to go, one with 10, and one with 14 minutes. In other words his defense had to go out there for another 7 minutes twice, 10 minutes, and 14 minutes to secure those clutch, “game on the line” drives. That coupled with a game ending INT turned magical TD means 5 of his supposed GWDs really weren’t that impressive.

            You of course bring up one game in which his defense let him down in Atlanta. Can you find 4 more?

            LOL, right?

          • eYeDEF

            LOLOLOL! It proves you’re GRASPING FOR STRAWS! That doesn’t say anything about his ability to come back with less time on the clock, it’s not like he wasn’t an absolute legend in come from behind wins in college. It’s not his fault that his defense is good enough that he’s not put in position where he has to. Once again, NOTHING you’ve said goes any way in proving that he’s ‘mediocre’. Thank you again for the muffled embarrassed-for-you laughs.

          • Dohkay

            I’d say trying to pull in college stats or wins is grasping for straws. There are plenty of “absolute legends” in college who don’t even play a snap in the NFL.

            Also, I completely agree it’s not his fault his defense is the best defense in two decades. Just like it’s not Tony Romo or Andrew Lucks fault that they have to score 28 or 35 points to win a game or be in a position for a game winning drive while Wilson only needs a TD and a few FGs.

            Don’t muddle your laughs or feel embarrassed for me. There’s more to life than a silly sports argument. :)

          • eYeDEF

            We’re not talking about guys that can’t cut it in the NFL. We’re talking about a guy that has excelled in the NFL but just hasn’t had many come from behind chances in the NFL because his team is really good; but when he has had those chances he’s capitalized, which is why your nitpicking is so ridiculous since it doesn’t say anything about him being ‘mediocre’. In this case, looking at his college career is not a primary argument, but a complimentary one that dispels your belief that he’s not capable in such situations. The same things were being said about Brady even after he won his 1st Super Bowl, critics said it was because his team around him was so good and he wasn’t put in positions where he had to carry them. But Brady’s legendary college career should have dispelled any notion that he didn’t have the mental makeup to rally his teams from behind. I can’t help but feel embarrassed for you because the arguments you’re trying to use to prove Wilson is ‘mediocre’ are just so laughingly bad. But don’t worry, it’s not putting me out. It’s actually quite entertaining because it holds comedic value.

          • Dohkay

            I can’t continue to debate someone that thinks tom Brady had a legendary college career. That was the whopper of them all right there. 30 TDs and 17 INTs is legendary. No wonder you’re so smitten with Wilson. You have lower standards than a drunk college freshman. LOL.


          • eYeDEF

            Awww. That’s all you got? The fact that you can’t even touch Wilson with a coherent argument and have to focus on Brady’s college career (noticeably absent of course is any criticism of Wilson in college) ?!? LOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL! Thanks for conceding the argument with such a blatantly conspicuous attempted diversion! Cheers!

          • PK

            Do you understand that by running the ball on offense, the clock runs and there will be less total scoring (by both teams) in a game?

          • Dohkay

            Seattle has played pass happy offenses in the postseason and shut them down. Denver and New Orleans throw 30+ times and managed no more than 17 points. I understand Seattle slows the pace down but you can’t attribute it to just running the ball…

          • Michael

            Dohkay’s argument in a nutshell:

            Alex Smith, a 30 year old former #1 overall pick in is eighth season in the NFL, is approximately as good, on a counting stat/win percentage basis as Russell Wilson was in his first two seasons in the NFL. Minus one particular piece of jewelry of course.

            Let’s assume for a second that Dohkay is correct, and Russell is “Alex Smith 2.0 and see how that might turn out.

            Smith in his first 2 seasons played in 25 games and accumulated the following: 56.2% for 3765 yards with 17 TD’s and 27 INT’s.

            In his most current 2 seasons, he played another 25 games and put up the following: 63.5% for 5050 yards with 36 TD’s and 12 INT’s

            If, as Dohkay states, Russell Wilson is “Alex Smith 2.0″ then surely we can expect the same kind of statistical uptick between years 1-2 and 7-8! Applying those same rates of improvement would mean that in years 7-8 of his NFL career, Russell Wilson’s typical SINGLE season would look like this: 70.9% for 4342 yards with 55 TD’s and 4 INT’s.

            Obviously this isn’t likely to happen, but those numbers were arrived at using the exact same rates of change that Alex Smith applied over his 8 year career to get to where Russell ALREADY IS.

            Rest assured, the best is yet to come with for Mr. Wilson.

        • bobrulz

          Let’s compare some other stats then:

          Last 3 years for Smith, last 2 for Wilson:
          Alex Smith: 29 pass attempts/game, 7.0YPA, 62.7% completion, 4.5TD%, 18.6 rushing yards/game

          Russell Wilson: 25 pass attempts/game, 8.1YPA, 63.6% completion, 6.5TD%, 32.2 rushing yards/game

          Slightly higher completion percentage on much higher YPA, much higher TD percentage, and nearly double the number of rushing yards per game. Alex Smith has taken more passes to reach similar stats as well. Their overall productiveness might be similar, but Wilson has been far more efficient, doing it in fewer passes with more overall impact, not to mention the added rushing value.

          In another note, Alex Smith took 6 seasons to finally become a competent quarterback, whereas Russell Wilson has been this good from Day 1. It’s safe to assume that Alex Smith has peaked, while Wilson can and probably will get much better.

          • Dohkay

            Please note I’m not arguing FOR Alex smith. I think he is mediocre just like Wilson. Luckily for both, they got to play in fantastic systems with great coaches and great defenses to make them “winners”.

    • tdebs

      I see your point and this is actually a good case study on looking at the right stats. On the surface they seem to be as efficient as each other and have similar numbers but lets look a little deeper.

      Lets look at a simple efficiency stat like yards per attempt. Alex smith has 6.55 and wilson has 8.05 which is elite by any scale.(espn)

      Lets look at pressure situations, when their teams need them to move the chains. Alex smith has 11 4th quarter comebacks and 13 game winning drives in 8 years. Wilson has 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in 2 years.(pro football reference)

      I could point also out numbers to show how wilson has a significantly better QBR average and running efficiency and one of the best ratings of any qb after 2 years.

      The fact is wilson has been held back to preserve the integrity of the teams rushing attack, to compare him to someone who struggles to throw a 30 yard pass is wrong. You mentioned the outlier atlanta game but fail to recognise it was an outlier because he was allowed to throw more. you also mentioned that the team lost but fail to recognise he gave his elite defense a lead with 30 seconds left. Watch seattles win at the bears 2 years ago and you’ll see how crazy it is calling him alex smith 2.0

      • Dohkay

        Wilson is a game manager. Nothing more, nothing less. Do you honestly believe Pete Carroll is holding back an elite talent at the games most important position for a run game? If Wilson was on par with the top QBs in the NFL they would throw it more.

        He isn’t which is why they rely on short passes and power running. By the way, Seattle has some of the best receivers in terms of YAC. You can credit Wilson for YPA but don’t forget to credit his receivers. He list Tate who lead the NFL in YAC average and now gets Harvin who is no slouch in that department either.

        • Steve Schwarz

          You just proved your ignorance if you don’t think the QB affects YAC. And if you have to ask why, you further prove it.

          Again. Your stats don’t tell the story. Try watching a game sometime.

          • Dohkay

            Steve, try reading the article. The author cites YAC as a reason for Wilson not having as great of a game as the numbers suggest. But what does PFF or FO know, right?

            Sorry for knocking your favorite player. It’s obviously got you riled up.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Lets just agree with the author, who has zero football credentials?

            He obviously doesn’t get why YAC is a horrible stat for judging QB’s either.

            Instead of just adopting the opinion of “experts”, you might try some independent thought.

            Again, this isn’t baseball.

          • Dohkay

            Why are you on a PFF article if you don’t value their opinion? Go back to ESPN. You can get your analysis from guys who played 20 years ago and have credentials, right?

          • Steve Schwarz

            I like to read opinion articles. Even if they’re way off.

            Why do you take what’s written by a hack writer making $30K a year as gospel?

          • Dohkay

            As pointed out by another commenter, PFF ranks t
            Wilson as their 4th best QB. I clearly don’t take that for gospel.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Then, by all means, continue to cherry pick the items that support your argument and ignore the ones that don’t.

          • Dohkay

            As opposed to you that simply stated he wins and you have seen him play. Forgive me for not just agreeing with you based on that amazing analysis.

          • Steve Schwarz

            And you obviously haven’t watched him play. I would have thought you’d at least have watched the Super Bowl where he was near perfect on the worlds biggest stage.

            The simple fact is he plays in a system. What the coaches ask him to do, he does at the highest level.

          • Dohkay

            I’ve watched many of his games including every prime time and playoff game. He’s competent. Like Alex Smith. As for his Super Bowl performance, the defense was near perfect. He was adequate which is all Seattle needs from him.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Calling him “adequate” in the Super Bowl is about as ignorant as it gets. He overthrew his first pass. After that, I’m not sure if he had an incompletion that wasn’t in the receiver’s hands before dropped or knocked out.

            I understand you’re upset because I don’t agree with you. So I hope you just said that to stir the pot vs an actual belief.

          • Dohkay

            Steve he was 9-14 for 100 yards and 0 TDs along with 1 rush for 5 yards at halftime. The game was over and he did absolutely nothing to put them in that 22-0 position. On the bright side, he didn’t have any TOs and let the defense win the game as usual. Adequate.

          • tdebs

            Okay first, I don’t get what game manager means, he’s on pace to match peyton manning with game winning drives so you clearly don’t mean he can’t win games. Kaepernick who is on another rush heavy team threw the ball only 9 more times and was worse in every stat, is he considered a game manager too?

            The fundamentals of football were built with having a good balance between running and passing, to keep defenses on the field longer and tire them out. I guess most all time greats would be considered game managers because their teams ran more.

            PFF had wilson as the 4th highest rated qb last year so I don’t know why you don’t value their input there.

            BTW peyton had 49% YAC last year and was PFF’s MVP, so clearly they have a few contradictions to work out themselves.

          • Dohkay

            Game manager means he isn’t relied on to win. They lean on their defense which guarantees that Wilson always has a chance to win the game by virtue of the fact that they rarely give up more than a few TDs. They also lean on Lynch who has been one of the best backs for the past 3 years.

            Peyton’s 51% of non-YAC yards were only 500 yards less than Wilson’s total passing yards. I suspect that may be one reason he was their MVP. He had volume to go with efficiency. I think Wilson’s gaudy efficiency numbers are due to the system similar to Smith in 2011 and Foles in 2013.

            I’m not arguing against the fundamentals of football but let’s give credit where it is due. The coaches, the schemes, and the talent surrounding Russell have enabled him to look better than he actually is. I’ll take several QBs ahead of him including Luck.

          • tdebs

            My point about the YAC contradictions is you can find articles of them praising peyton’s intelligence for putting the ball where the receivers can catch and run with it but they use it against RW here.

            This is exactly why seattle is a special team, they may have an elite qb, but the running philosophy comes first, they may have the best corner in the game, but the defensive philosophy comes first, and he can have 0 target games. Because a team that relies on just one thing to win is easier to beat.

            You mentioned they rely on their defense and running game, you also mentioned they rely on receivers making a lot of YAC. I’ll add offensive line and QB to that and you basically see that they rely on their TEAM to win. RW is a part of a great team it is almost impossible and not statistically verifiable to tell how he would do in another system. What is undeniable is what he is asked to do he does it efficiently. Plus this wasn’t wilson vs luck , this was wilson vs smith. It appears you changed the argument.

          • Dohkay

            I’m never going to argue which team is better. Seattle has proven they have the best team. The great thing about PFF and other sites is they try to pry the individual contributions out of the team. I think Wilson is overrated. He is mentioned with the likes of Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers when I think he is closer to Smith, Cutler, etc.

            I brought up Luck because he lacks the efficiency numbers and the Super Bowl ring but in my opinion, his team drags him down whereas Wilson and Smith’s teams prop them up. I would take several non SB winning QBs like Luck, Rivers, Stafford, Newton over Wilson because if they were placed in Seattle they’d have much less to do in order to win and could be more efficient in doing so.

          • tdebs

            I think I’ve shown that the smith comparison is off, but wilson vs luck is a decent debate to have.

            Based on what I’ve seen in 2 years, I think wilson can do what luck does to a good level, due to his scrambling and running ability to cover for a poor o-line and I think reggie wayne and ty hilton would be vast improvements over golden tate and doug baldwin.

            However imagining luck playing in seattle is a bit more difficult as he takes a lot of unnecessary risks that might work for indi, but aren’t needed in seattle. So luck has to have a complete mindset change to play in seattle.

            Based on last year, their numbers are comparable but i’ll say wilson played better, however i’ll say luck has more potential to improve his game. we’ll see in 5 years but right now, i’ll take RW

          • Dohkay

            Luck takes risks because he HAS to. Indy needs him to make plays. Wilson doesn’t have to because the defense doesn’t give up more than 14 points. I’ve had enough RW debating for today, though. Cheers!

        • curtman118

          You simply don’t understand the Seahawks or Pete Carroll’s philosophy/approach to the game if you think Carroll would allow any other QB to throw more. RW is much, much more than a game manager.

          • Dohkay

            Really? So if Brees, Rodgers, or Manning were the QB they’d only be allowed to throw 20 times a game? I suspect Pete would be out of a job if that were the case…

    • jacklaughing

      What, Smith didn’t have a good defense in 2012 in San Francisco? Where was Smith’s tour-de-force performance last season when he had a great defense in KC? I seem to recall a lot of the offense going through one player not named Alex Smith.

    • Steve Schwarz

      I had to go back today to make sure you really said this comment.

      Are you watching the KC game? I am. And you know nothing about football if you’re going to stick with that claim.

      By the way Mr stats…How do you measure leadership, strategy & decision making?

      You fail bro.

      • Dohkay

        I love your cliches, bro.


      • Dohkay

        Hey Steve!

        Just a few more facts for you in lieu of Russell’s great game on Sunday:

        Russell Wilson’s record when the opposition scores more than 17 points (drumroll please…)


        His record when they score more than 24 (league average defenses over the past two years have allowed ~23 PPG)…

        1-5! His lone win was against Tampa Bay last season in OT.


        • Steve Schwarz

          You need to get outside and experience life (and football) and not just rely on stats to figure out the world.

          Here’s a stat…One QB goes 15 for 25 and another goes 15 for 17. Who’s better? Gotta be the 2nd guy, right? No argument there.

          Oh…The 1st guy dropped back 25 times. 15 complete, 2 pad passes & 8 throw-aways.

          The 2nd guy played the same game. But instead of 8 throw-aways, he held the ball and got sacked 8 times. But he had over 80% completions. And the other guy just over 50%. So he must be better.

          Now you see how stupid your stats are without context. And with 22 players on a football field, there are a lot of variables.

          Tell me what part of this you don’t understand and I’ll try to explain again.

          • Dohkay

            As a wise man once said (hint – I’m sarcastically referring to you!): “It’s not about stats and who can score you the most points. It’s about winning NFL games.”

            The man just cannot win games unless his defense hands it to him on a platter. 6-8 isn’t going to cut it!

          • Steve Schwarz

            Best record in nfl history first 2 years.

            Do you think the scheme might have something to do with your stats?

            Do you realize Russell was totally handcuffed by the coaches until week 10 of his rookie year?

            Try responding without another useless stat and, instead, try using knowledge.

          • Dohkay

            *Best record in nfl history with a defense that’s allowed the fewest PPG (14.9) in the league in his first two years.

            In his 39 career games the defense has limited opponents to 16 points or less in 20 of them. To put that in perspective, there have been a combined 4 teams that have averaged less than 16 PPG on offense in the past two seasons. Wilson has basically gotten the luxury of playing the 31st or 32nd ranked offenses in half of his games.

            Winning is pretty easy when you only need 2 TDs and a FG to win half your games (and that’s not accounting for defensive and special teams scoring which Seattle has been pretty good at, too).

          • Steve Schwarz

            “Statistics are for losers”

            -Vince Lombardi

            I think he means you.

          • Dohkay

            Which is why I supplied win-loss records. 6-8 when his team allows more than 17 points. Pathetic.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Another stat? You’re as stubborn as you are ignorant.

          • Dohkay

            Win-Loss record is now an irrelevant “stat” according to you (despite it being your very first counterargument). You have truly come full circle in your stupidity.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Record when allowing over 17 points isn’t a stat?

            Please argue that one.

            Or just ignore it like you have all the other questions I asked that you didn’t respond to.

            Tell me who’s the better QB in my analogy above.

          • Dohkay

            Well sacks show up in the box score and advanced stats actually account for those (i.e. yards per play instead of yards per pass) not to mention PFF accounts for that as well so I’m not sure what your point is?

            I believe the context is very clear in my 6-8 record when needing to score more than 17 points to win. His defense gave up 17 points. Russell needs to score more than 17 points to win (and in some cases less since he gets defensive TDs and special teams TDs to help him). What more context do you need?

          • Steve Schwarz

            The stats you used to (try to) make your point did not include a full box score, advanced stats or PFF rating (which actually put RW at #4 QB last year). So tell me then, which one should we use? What’s the perfect stat to use? Guess what? There isn’t one. That’s my point. Are you starting to understand?

            What more context do I need? Oh, none. You found the perfect stat that tells all and can not be disputed. But I’m so dumb, I guess I’ll try.

            So let’s look at those 8 losses, shall we?

            @ AZ 20-16
            1st NFL game
            @ Stl 19-13
            4th NFL game
            @ Det 28-24
            “toss from Russell Wilson with 5:27 left that put the Seahawks ahead.

            “Stafford threw a winning TD pass with less than a minute left”

            @ Mia 24-21
            Wilson went 21 for 27 for 224 yards and two scores

            Div Round @ Atl 30-28
            Wilson leads team to touchdown with 36 seconds left to take the lead. D blows it and allows a field goal to lose.

            @ Ind 34-28
            28 points on the road against a final 4 AFC team isn’t bad

            @ SF 19-17
            Again, RW drives the hawks to the lead with 6:20 left. SF took it down next drive and won with a FG on the last play.
            AZ 17-10
            Bad game against a great D. Had the ball with a chance to win at the end and receiver missed a pass, ball deflected high and was intercepted.

            @ SD 30-21
            Time of possession 17 minutes. Points, 21. Over a point a minute. D couldn’t get off the field.

            Get why your stats suck now dummy?

          • Dohkay

            You claim he has the best record in his first two seasons and then you pull out the “it’s his first and fourth NFL game so he gets a pass!”

            @ AZ – Scores 16 against a team that allowed 22 PPG.

            @ STL – Scores 13 against a team that allowed 20 PPG.

            @ DET – Scores 24 against a team that allowed 27 PPG. Leaves 5+ minutes left in the game with a FG lead. Sorry but that’s pretty common for teams to be able to score at least a FG with that much time left.

            @ MIA – Scores 14 (can’t count that special teams TD for him!) against a team that allowed 19 PPG.

            @ ATL – Legitimate good game from Wilson that goes down as a loss when his defense squanders it away with under two minutes. I give credit to him here as he should have won.

            @ IND – Scores 28 against a team that allowed 21 PPG. Another legitimate loss although he completed 48% of his passes. Still I’ll give him credit for deserving a win.

            @ SF – Scores 17 against a team that allowed 17 PPG. Worthy of a tie?

            ARZ – Scores 10 against a team that allowed 20 PPG. Also somehow squandered 4 takeaways from his defense. Yikes.

            @ SD – Scores 21 against a team that allowed 22 PPG. Tie… maybe?

            Congratulations. I will amend his record from 6-8 to 6-4-2 but only because I’m feeling generous this morning!

            By the way, Russell has played 25 games when his defense allows 17 or less and went 23-2 in those games. Andrew Luck has played 13 games when his defense allows 17 or less and went 13-0 in those games. 😉

          • Steve Schwarz

            You still there Dokhay? I think enough time has passed that I can claim a checkmate on this discussion. Or we can wait another year…


            RW: 110.0

            Luck: 74.9

            Where’s Lynch and the smothering defense this year? How can a game manager have the best 4 week QB stretch in NFL history?


          • Dohkay

            Yes the 3rd ranked scoring defense has truly regressed. I’m amazed he can still perform when he needs to score 18.2 PPG to win! 7 games they’ve allowed 13 points or less. Let’s break it down as I’ve done 25 times for you:

            Games where the defense gives up 14+ points: 64% completion, 250 yards, 8.2 YPA, 1.8 TDs, 0.7 INTs

            Games where the defense gives up 13 points or less: 73% completion, 256 yards, 9.1 YPA, 2.1 TDs, 0.4 INTs.

            Just FYI – the stats from the first group = Kirk Cousins. ELITE!

          • Steve Schwarz

            110 passer rating. But it’s only because he has the #3 defense. How exactly does that work?

            And his supporting cast on offense during the BEST 4 GAME STRETCH EVER? Backups and role players.

            If you still can’t admit he’s elite, you’re truly lost.

            Can you at least admit he was better than Luck this year?

          • Dohkay

            If you can’t understand how not having to play from behind impacts a QB’s performance I’ll just end the conversation. When your defense is giving up 7 PPG (see the games where they give up 13 or less) the QB doesn’t have to make risky throws and the defense cannot play the pass. When you need to score points (see the games where his defense gave up 14 or more), the defense can play the pass and Wilson has to take more risks. It’s why his stats are worse in games where he has to score more points. This applies to ALL QBs. The difference of course, is that most QBs have to score 25+ for more than a handful of their games. Take a look at Wilson’s stats and record win the defense allows more than 24 PPG. 1-11 record. ELITE.

            I consider Wilson a good QB. I don’t consider him elite. His body of work indicates he can win you games when your defense is great but when the defense falters he cannot carry the team. Elite QBs can win games 35-31. Good ones can win games 21-17. Wilson is more Alex Smith than Tom Brady.

            As for the comment on backups and role players? Where? Lockett was a 3rd round draft pick (taken 23 picks before TY Hilton, Luck’s supposed elite WR) and you’re a fool if you think Baldwin wouldn’t start on every other NFL team. Remember that Golden Tate guy? He was another “backup, role player” who went on to post 1,300 yards last year in Detroit. Jimmy Graham was a 3rd rounder. Are you going to use that as an excuse now, too?

            Luck has been injured all year so comparing their 2015 seasons isn’t valid. He was playing with shoulder injuries prior to lacerating his kidney. I’d like to see him fully healthy before I concede that Wilson is better.

          • Steve Schwarz

            If you have to cherry pick stats to fit your argument, then yes, let’s end it.

          • Steve Schwarz

            My God…He just put up 32, 29, 39, 38 & 35 last 5 games. So if his D wasn’t as good as it is and gave up 28 each of those games, he would be 5-0. Would that, all of a sudden, make him elite?

            So for you, a QB can’t be elite if he has a good D. Great reasoning.

            ARod lost one receiver and his D only allows .6 more puts per game than Seattle. Why is his QB rating almost 13 pts below RW? Guess he’s not elite either.

          • eYeDEF

            lol. This battle again? Regardless of the 1-11 record above 24 points that 1 win came in a shootout three weeks ago against the Steelers so he’s trending up. It appears he’s taken his game to a new level the past month where all the old criticisms no longer apply. He doesn’t need play action anymore and thrives without it. The only question now is whether he’ll sustain but so long as he continues to get a modicum of protection from his OL I don’t see why he can’t. He’s improved his TTT from the 3 seconds he had been averaging for the prior 3 years to 2.41 the past month. BTW, sorry about the implosion of Stafford and your coaching staff this year though you’re probably welcoming the change. Any hope for signs in incremental improvement in Stafford don’t appear to have held.

          • Dohkay

            He’s definitely trending up. I was responding to the comment that he’s had the greatest 4 game stretch by pointing out that his defense has put him in a great position for most of those games. As I said, he’s good but I’m not going to call him great until he shows us he can win games by himself.

            As for Stafford, sorry but I disagree with PFF on this one. He has played way better than they seem to think. He’s also in a terrible system though Cooter seems to at least realize what his strengths are. Caldwell and Lombardi decided to make him into Brees 2.0 despite the fact that short, accurate throws are not his strong suit. They’d probably have Wilson under center without a read option if they were coaching in Seattle.

            PFF likes to punish the QB when his OL and running game are hot garbage. I’m not sure there are QBs outside of Brady and Rodgers that could overcome that. Obviously Stafford isn’t on that level but he’s certainly not worse than guys like Alex Smith or Joe Flacco who grade higher.

    • Steve Schwarz

      Chalk up another win when D gives up 17 pts and another clutch game-winning 80 yard TD drive for Alex Smith 2.0.

      • Steve Schwarz

        Oh…Against the 2nd best team in the NFL.

        • Steve Schwarz

          Darnit. Kirk Cousins had more fantasy points this week and his team scored 34. I guess I just have to admit he’s better than RW.

          • Dohkay

            Imagine Wilson needing to score more than 30 to win… Maybe if Lynch ran for 300 yards they’d have s chance in the game right?

          • Steve Schwarz

            If you knew anything about football beyond FFL stats, you’d realize that, when you’re up 17-3, you don’t bomb it down the field every play.

            Apparently, it’s impossible to be elite if you have a great D, in your opinion.

            Thank goodness your opinion is based on ignorance.

          • Dohkay

            Your probably shouldn’t take a sack at your own 1-yard line with a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter that leads to a safety on the next play.

            You probably also shouldn’t throw into multiple defenders with the 17-5 lead in the 4th quarter like Wilson did yesterday, am I right?

            Russell single-handedly turned 17-3 into 17-12. I guess he’s not that great of a game manager after all.

          • Steve Schwarz

            You got me. He’s not perfect like other Elite QBs are. If only we had Aaron Rodgers.

            Oh wait. He scored 7 points against Detroit. Better drop him from the Elite list too.

            I’m moving off this argument. It’s like trying to teach algebra to someone with Down’s syndrome. You just aren’t gonna get it.

          • Dohkay

            Oh you like to cherry pick games? How about these gutsy wins by Russell Wilson?

            9/24/12 – Hosting Green Bay. Russ goes 10-21 for 130 yards and 2 TDs including an amazing Hail Mary as time expires to win the game (I mean, sure, it was actually a game ending INT but no big deal, right???)!!!

            10/28/12 – at San Fran. Russell goes 8-19 for 142 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT in a 28-3 BLOWOUT (please don’t look at the 5 forced turnovers by the defense).

            9/29/13 – At Houston. Russell goes 12-23 for 123 yards, no TDs and an INT as he leads the Hawks to a 23-20 CLUTH overtime win (please ignore the defensive TD and 3 forced turnovers).

            10/28/13 – at St. Louis. Russ goes 10/18 for 139 yards and 2 TDs in an impressive 14-9 victory (please ignore the 7 sacks for 48 yards he took and 2 forced turnovers by the defense)!

            Or how about these clutch playoff performances?

            1/6/13 – at Washington, Russ goes 15-26 for 187 yards and 1 TD in a 24-14 win!

            1/11/14 – Hosting New Orleans in the playoffs, Russ shows his clutchness by going 9-18 for 103 yards and no TDs in a 23-15 playoff victory!

            1/19/14 – Hosting San Fran Russ goes 16-25 for 215 yards and TD as he dominates SF 23-17!

            Now Rodgers’ 16-27 for 162 yards and a TD doesn’t look so bad after all does it????

          • Steve Schwarz

            You brought up this week. So I’m talking about it. You’re the one cherry picking.

            Give me any of your “elite” QBs and I can list just as many games where they had “poor” stats.

            Kinda like Peyton Manning scoring 3 points in 3 quarters. Not elite, right? Or the Super Bowl. 8 points. That’s 2 of the last 4 games he’s stunk. Is he elite?

            Keep talking ignoramus.

          • Dohkay

            I’ll bite. Find me 7 games that Manning WON with stats similar to the 7 games I gave you for Wilson. Keep in mind I ignored games that he sucked and lost (9/9/12 at AZ, 9/30/12 at STL, 10/18/12 at SF, 12/22/13 against AZ, etc).

            So go and find me those games that Manning led his team to victory with 100 yards passing. If you want I’ll let you cheat and pick games that he lost as well since we all know he wasn’t lucky enough to have a great defense. So go find me 10!

            Good luck buddy!

        • Dohkay

          Team? Sure. Defense? Um….

      • Dohkay

        Kind of feel bad for Seattle’s D. Only have up 11 to the best offense in the NFL. Of course Russ takes a big sack that sets up a safety on the next play and also throws a pick that gives Peyton only 17 yards to score. Sometimes you just have to overcome your QB.

    • Steve Schwarz

      Time to give up this fight.

      Aside from about 5 dropped passes, RW was basically perfect. He even had 3 TDs called back.

      I won’t say better than Brady, Manning or Rodgers. Only because they’ve been on top so long. But definitely on par with all of them right now.

      If you’re drafting to start a team today, you take RW #1 overall.

      • Dohkay

        Washington allowed Eli Manning to throw for 300 yards and 5 TDs last week. Please shut up now, thank you.

        Week before that, Foles tosses 325 and 3 TDs. Notice a trend, champ?

        • Steve Schwarz

          Guess you didn’t watch the game. You’re right. We don’t need to watch games anymore. Your FFL stats tell everything.

          You are an embarrassment to actual football fans. Now go and set next week’s lineup.

          • Steve Schwarz

            And the world isn’t flat. Wake the F up dummy!

          • Dohkay

            It’s so perfect that you replied to yourself with that comment.


          • Steve Schwarz

            You like stats? Ready to get owned some more? I’m speaking your language now, right? Stats?



            Career rating of 102.1. I believe that puts RW #2 in NFL history for passing rating. Are we getting close to elite yet or is #2 all time still mediocre?

            Here’s your hero Andrew Luck. At 84.3. Not bad. He’s within 20 pts of RW.


            I guess the rating is all about the hawk defense. Right?

            Here’s where you tell me stats aren’t important anymore now. Right?

          • Dohkay

            If Russell Wilson maintains those numbers for another 10 years I will absolutely call him the greatest QB in NFL history.

            Andrew Luck isn’t my hero, by the way. I’m a Detroit Lions fan. I have no rooting interest in Andrew Luck. It’s just clear that he does more with less than Wilson has.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Wait. So I show you the most widely accepted QB stat. Passer rating.

            RW is 102 and Luck is 84. Now that’s not even close. Right?

            But all of a sudden stats aren’t good enough for you and I just have to accept your opinion with no basis?


            So tell me who’s better right now. This year, Rivers is playing out of his mind. Other than that, who’s playing better right now? Rodgers can be the only other QB in the conversation, just based on the last 3 weeks. As he sucked weeks 1 & 2.

          • Dohkay

            Sigh… I really don’t feel like going down the rabbit hole and dispproving you since you’re really not worth my time but why the hell not. Let’s use your Passer Rating stat but let’s break it down a bit. Are you ready?

            Defense actually has a pretty big impact on passer rating. For instance, if your defense is dominating and there is less pressure on the QB to score and score quickly, it’s probably going to mean a higher Rating, correct? Let’s check the splits (these include all career games including playoffs)…

            15+ point wins
            RW has played 14 such games with an average score of 37-9. Passer rating = 117.2
            AL has played 8 such games with an average score of 32-9.
            Passer rating = 102.3

            15+ point losses
            RW has never lost a game by more than 15.
            AL has lost 7 games by 15+ with an average score of 15-40.
            Passer rating = 58.1

            Games decided by 8 points or less
            RW has played 22 games (13-9 record) with an average score of 19-18. Passer rating = 90.8
            AL has played 20 games (16-4 record) with an average score of 26-24. Passer rating = 85.2

            Notice in the 15 point blowouts both defenses only gave up 9 points on average but credit RW as he leads the offense to 5 more points and his rating is much better. He is good at running up the score in blowouts and also has 6 more games to boost his overall rating.

            In the 15 point losses, AL is absolutely dreadful befitting for a blowout. His defense surrenders an average of 40 points in those games but he obviously isn’t helping cause either. Still, those are 8 games weighing down his average where RW has none. It should also be noted that Russell’s defense has NEVER given up more than 34 points in a game while AL has 8 such games.

            In the close games decided by a score or less, RW’s defense only gives up 18 on average compared to AL’s defense giving up 24, however Luck’s offense scores 26 compared to RW’s 19. Luck’s record is superior in these close games (16-4 vs 13-9) and their passer ratings are similar with RW a slight favorite at 90.8 vs. 85.2.

            Looks a lot closer once you account for circumstances now, doesn’t it?

          • Steve Schwarz

            Wow. You sure make a lot of assumptions for someone who is so into stats.

            So because AL has sucked ass for 8 games and RW hasn’t, that makes AL better?

            You are really reaching now.

            And your assumption that a good D helps passer rating? Uh…Wake up. It actually probably hurts passer rating.

            Let’s say it’s halftime and QB X’s team is up 21-3. What are the chances that QB X throws for 200 2nd half yards? Probably next to zero. The team is going to play conservative. Runs and short throws (at least one coached by Pete Carrol).

            Same QB is down 21-3 at half. You think they might rack up some passing yards in the 2nd half?

            Does more yards help QB rating? I hope you think the answer is yes. Because it does.

            This is the main flaw in your argument. RW plays in a system. Do you get that? He will probably never be a 300 yd/game passer with Seattle.

            My favorite statement is when you say, “looks a lot closer now”. I’ll take that as your admission that RW is better. But AL is close.

            I can accept that. Thanks for finally agreeing.

          • Dohkay

            Steve, are you mentally challenged? Look at the passer ratings for both players in blowouts vs. close games or losses. Do you notice how both RW and AL are significantly higher in blowouts than in close games or losses? Hmmm… that seems to indicate that having a big lead does in fact help passer rating.

            As for your claim about more passing yards helping passer rating… Let me help you out with the math which you clearly struggle with. Passer rating is an EFFICIENCY stat so throwing the ball more does not lead to a higher passer rating. Throwing for more yards does not improve passer rating unless it comes with a higher YPA. Therefore it makes no difference how much you throw but rather how many yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, completion %, and INTs per attempt. Do you follow?

            Now, let’s revisit your example and we can see why QBs have significantly lower passer ratings in blowout losses. If a team is up 21-3 at the half, one would assume they would throw less. Defenses understand this as well and tend to load the box and play the run. That makes for better opportunities in the passing game. Throw in a strong running game (like having a top 5 back in Lynch) and you have really good opportunities for the passing game. RW could throw the ball 5 times and complete all 5 for 65 yards and a TD and he has a PERFECT RATING of 158.3. OMG RIGHT? He only threw it 5 times, how!?!?!?!

            How about a 21-3 deficit? The defense knows you have to pass (and if the winning team is running the clock out) they know you don’t have time to dink and dunk your way down the field. You throw more, throw for more yards, but you’re likely much less efficient since, you know, the defense isn’t packing guys in the box to stuff the run since you can’t afford to waste precious time. You could throw the ball 20 times in the second half, complete 75%, throw for 200 yards and a TD and your passer rating is 123. (Note that I’m being generous and assuming you somehow dominate despite the defense knowing you have to throw).

            Weird. We threw it 15 more times and had 135 more yards passing and our rating is 35 points less!!!

            Their passer ratings are separated by 5 points in close games and yet AL’s defense gives up an average of 6 points MORE in close games. That means he has to throw more and as we’ve already discussed, the more you throw, the harder it is to remain as efficient. Once again, good try Steve!

          • Steve Schwarz

            Your theories crap the bed when the rubber meets the road:




            “Luck finished 29 of 47 for 353 yards with one TD, though most of that came after the Colts dug themselves into a 38-0 deficit.”

            It’s OK. You can have the QB that plays great, but doesn’t show up 1 of every 4 games (weird that he couldn’t score against AZ or StL, who RW played twice each last year). I’ll take the one that knows how to lead his team to victory.

            I don’t want the one that puts up 9 points in a playoff game.

            I don’t want the one that scores 11 points while throwing a pick 6.

            So now that you’ve been forced to learn more about RW, give me your updated evaluation. Maybe he’s in the top 15? Surely not ahead of Cutler or Stafford or Newton or Ryan or Rothleisburger. Man…If only the Hawks had one of those guys, right?

          • Steve Schwarz
          • Dohkay

            Stop replying to yourself and calling yourself a dummy. It was an impressive performance last night, though. 3rd best of the season… against Washington. 😉

          • Steve Schwarz

            Go to the “stop replying to yourself” again. It’s pretty much all you have left.

          • Dohkay

            Just making sure you stop calling yourself a dummy. It’s concerning.

          • Dohkay

            Did you really just link a game where Luck scored 45 points to win a playoff game and try to say that’s a bad performance? LOL. As for his 9 points in his playoff game, it came against the 2012 SB champion Ravens (pretty good team I guess you could say) and yeah, his passer rating wasn’t too hot at 60. If only he had a passer rating of 68 like RW did in one of his playoff games. He probably would have won with that elite performance right?


            Do you enjoy cherry picking crappy games against St. Louis? How about this one?


            LOLOLOLOLOL. Oops!

          • Steve Schwarz

            No…to refute your theory about passer rating when up 21-3 vs down 21-3. Try to keep up.

            Now go back and reread SLOWLY.

          • Dohkay

            Steve my man this isn’t rocket science. Your own player has a worse passer rating when he’s losing vs when he’s winning. Go look up his splits and you can see for yourself.

            It’s quite simple and yet you instead try to find one game and pretend as if that refutes the combined numbers. Find me a QB with a better rating when he’s losing vs winning. Get back to me when you find one, k?

          • Steve Schwarz

            Is that what I said? That he’s better in a loss than he is in a win?

            Put the bong down. Now your just imagining things.

            The question at hand is whether RW is elite. If you think he isn’t, then you’re ignorant.

          • Dohkay

            You are such a clown. You said that a player that is losing at halftime will have a higher passer rating than a player who is winning because he throws more. Not only does this not make any sense as I’ve already shown since passer rating is an EFFICIENCY stat but I’ve also proven that it’s not true for your own QB whose passer rating when he’s losing is significantly worse than when he’s ahead.

            Once again you change the subject of the previous 6 posts since I exposed you yet again as not having the slightest clue what you are talking about.

            Wilson is not elite. Go look up Mike Sando’s article on his discussions with NFL execs and they say the exact same thing. Elite QBs are efficient AND have high volumes. RW throws it 20 times per game and almost always plays with a lead thanks to his RB and his amazing defense. I guess me and the NFL execs are just ignorant, though!

          • Steve Schwarz

            Higher passer rating IN THE 2ND HALF!!!! And I just picked the first couple blowouts I saw and linked to the game log so you could see.

            Reading is FUNdamental. Have your parents help next time.

            As far as Sando’s “insiders”. Are those the same people that passed on RW through rounds 1 & 2? Or picked Ryan Leaf #2 or JaMarcus Russell #1?

            I prefer the opinion of players who have faced both. Have your parents help you read this:


          • Dohkay

            OMG two players think RW is better? Ahhhh! I guess that settles it!

            The split stats break out instances where teams are ahead of behind. Every player has a better passer rating when ahead than behind. That includes being ahead or behind in the SECOND HALF as if that makes a differene anyways. So going back to your example, being down 21-3 at the half will yield a lower rating in the second half than being ahead 21-3 in the second half. I’m sure you can find a few outliers. I know you cannot find aggregate numbers proving otherwise. Again, you are wrong. Nice try.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Here’s another article on basically the same thing.

            This one has pictures and videos so you can better follow.


          • Dohkay

            Two players! Can they just pick the best team and we’ll crown that team the SB champ, too? No need to play the games, Chris Harris and Ryan Clark can tell us all we need to know.

          • Steve Schwarz

            I can accept that you won’t believe it until RW is wearing a yellow jacket in 20 years.

            The fact that the big debate on today and around many other nation media circles this week is whether RW is better that AL. There are arguments for both sides.

            But we’re assuming AL is elite, right? So if there’s a national debate on who’s better, common sense would lead us to the conclusion that they’re close. Close enough for it to be a debate. So doing the math, does that not make RW elite? I’m not asking whether you think he’s better than AL. Is he elite?

            You can agree now or continue to lie to yourself.

          • Dohkay

            Steve it appears we have a failure to communicate. AL is not elite yet. There are 5 guys I consider elite. Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Rivers. I have Luck ranked 6th. I have Wilson generously at 9 or 10 but I have a feeling his efficiency will be exposed as that defense disappears and Lynch wears down in the years to come.

            If you think Wilson is elite you’re delusional. He throws it 20 times per game. The guys in the top 5 average 30+ as they have to carry the team to win rather than rely on an amazing defense and running game. And please, let’s wait to call him Canton bound until at least 5 more years. Quit being a Seattle homer.

          • Steve Schwarz

            So RW throws only about 2/3 as much as the top QB’s.

            Yet only Dan Marino had more TD’s and yards over the first 2 seasons in NFL history.

            Easy math question. Would more attempts likely lead to more touchdowns and yards?

            So with only 2/3 the opportunity, RW has still managed to exceed everyone but Marino (who was probably closer to 40 attempts per game).

            So just to recap. More passes would lead to more yards and TDs. Even with the disadvantage of throwing less, he’s still #2 all time. Amazing! Or, should I say ELITE.

            That doesn’t account for this year, which is actually his best so far (he’s still improving by the way. Your elite list have all topped out).

            Also doesn’t account for any rushing stats. How many times have your elite QBs run for 122 yards in a game.

          • Dohkay

            Just FYI, your little RW factoid is incorrect. Sorry pal. Peyton Manning had just as many TDs and far more passing yards in his first two seasons. Luck had more passing yards. I’m not sure where you pulled that from (your ass?) but it’s wrong.

            Also, please don’t try to compare today’s NFL to the NFL of the 1980s. Take a look at the top single-season passing seasons. Notice anything about it? Hint: it’s dominated by QBs from the last decade.


            Also, as volume increases efficiency decreases. It’s called the Law of Diminishing Returns and it applies to everything, not just football. For example, when Wilson throws the ball less than 25 times per game his PR is 106. When he throws it more than 25 times it’s 100. If QBs could maintain their efficiency regardless of how often they threw it than Peyton Manning would never hand the ball off. He’d just throw 60 times per game.

            Rushing is impressive, but if you add it to his passing yards and also add the number of rushes it actually hurts his efficiency. His yards per passing attempt is 8.1. His yards per rushing attempt is 5.7. Rushing isn’t as efficient as passing.

          • Steve Schwarz

            “Only Dan Marino had more TD’s AND yards”.

            Again. Having your parents nearby for reading comprehension would make this debate much more efficient.

            And are you really trying to tell me that 5.7 yards per rush is somehow a bad thing? Somebody tell Pete Carroll to keep him from running. It’s obviously hurting the team.

            Again…Ask your parents and they’ll help explain.

          • Dohkay

            Peyton Manning had the same TDs AND more yards. Still wrong.

            Which is higher? 8.1 or 5.7. Would you rather he ran for 5.7 or threw for 8.1? Does he get bonus yards for running? Do the refs give him an automatic first down?

            Do you need help with that one? I can ask my parents for you…

          • Steve Schwarz

            OK. Let’s try this again. 3rd time’s a charm. You see I’m capitalizing the important words to help.

            “Only Dan Marino had MORE TD’s and yards.”

            Now ask yourself again if that’s an incorrect statement (hint: “same” and “more” are not synonyms).

            Now I do need your help with the running vs passing. Hard to dispute that 8.1 is a higher number than 5.7. It’s also higher than 4.4, which is Marshawn’s avg per rush this year.

            I think you’re on to something. Running just doesn’t make sense. I can’t believe after all these years that these silly NFL teams haven’t figured this out yet. Pass 100% of the time and you’ll be almost 2x more efficient.

            What an amazing football mind you have.

          • Dohkay

            Great. Symantics. Bravo my friend. Keep throwing it around since it sounds better than it actually is.

            Unless it’s a designed run, Wilson was asked to throw. He decided to run which is less effective than if he were to pass it. Marshawn probably averages less than 4.4 yards per pass so my guess is when they run the ball with Lynch it’s in his best interest to run rather than pass.

            Peyton can probably run for a yard or two, should he forego his passing to run just to mix it up a bit? Keep the defense guessing?

            I’m glad to see you’ve caught on to my point about efficiency though! As you point out, you need to run the ball and can’t just throw it more and expect to maintain the efficiency! Similar to how Wilson wouldn’t be as efficient if he had to throw it more!

            I knew I could teach you something! You’re welcome, Scott!

          • Steve Schwarz

            OK. Last thing. Semantics or not. How many other QBs can you make that statement about?

            And, upon further thought, I need to backtrack and disagree with you on the diminishing returns theory. Debatable whether it applies to passing. But you said it applies to EVERYTHING. And that is simply not true because you don’t account for the learning and improvement that happens each time the activity is performed.

            I can site specific examples if you need. But I suspect you understand.

          • Dohkay

            Peyton. Though my guess is that list will grow in the near future given the way the NFL keeps trying to destroy defense. Still, good company I will grant you that.

            Now you have me interested. What examples are there? The only one I can think of would be computing since we seem to be exponentially growing how many bytes we can fit into a chip which means more processing power. I suppose that is one case. What is another?

          • Steve Schwarz

            I move to Cuba and get hired in a cigar factory.

            On my first day, I’m only able to roll a few cigars that meet the standard.

            With every attempt, I gain experience and skill allowing me to make more on the 2nd day. After a year, I can do 100 a day.

            Eventually the learning curve flattens. But it still would go up slightly (barring injury) as you continue to refine your technique.

            So more activity equals more efficiency.

            It’s not much different from a QB seeing a new wrinkle that the opposing coach put in for the game. He might look silly the first few passes. Then once he gets an eye for what they’re doing, he can adjust and improve. I said “can” because some QBs don’t learn in game so well.

          • Dohkay

            Sure but eventually the defense catches on and plays the pass. That’s why passer rating is higher for the QBs who are winning (except maybe Romo since he seems to play worse when ahead) rather than trailing. When you’re winning, the defense has to respect the run and you get better opportunities in the passing game. When you’re losing, the defense shades to play the pass, especially if it’s a big margin in the score or there is limited time in the game.

            Likewise, if you throw it 50 times and only run 10 times, odds are the defense will not respect the run and play the pass. If you are more balanced and effective in the run game, you will be more efficient as the defense isn’t expecting a pass everytime you hike the ball.

            Also, your cigar example is a case for diminishing returns. As you said, at first, you’re not very good. As you get better, your returns are higher, but at a certain point, you rach max capacity. Sure, you may still improve every day, but the return on that improvement pales in comparison to the first few weeks on the job where you went from a few a day to 20, to 50, to 100.

          • Steve Schwarz

            So I have to say I was watching AL last night as I haven’t watched him play enough to really decide what I think of him.

            He obviously has some great skills and situational awareness. He runs at the right time and is generally accurate.

            That’s the good. But what I also saw was someone who made LOTS of errors. I won’t go through the whole list, but how many near INTs did he have from inaccurate passes. He drops and loses the snap (it was obviously on him and not the center).
            And even his long early TD to a wide open Hilton required a great catch as the pass was long.

            Not that RW never makes a mistake, but it’s really so rare. And certainly not 7 or 8 in one game.

            Also, RWs accuracy seems to be better. When he goes deep, the ball just seems to be in the perfect place more often than not.

            All in all, I’d classify last nights game as good. Not great.

            I’ll continue to watch. Maybe he just made more mistakes than usual last night.

          • Dohkay

            Yeah I’ll grant you it was a bit of a mixed bag last night. He definitely got away with a few INTs but on the flip side, 5 of his 6 INTs this season have come on tipped passes like the one last night with Watt. Not that the QB doesn’t deserve some blame on those but generally speaking it’s a bad break.

            The deep pass to Hilton was a bit off and cost him a TD in the boxscore (though Richardson cleaned up with the rush TD anyways) but if you look at the Deep Passing stats from PFF he’s actually leading the league in accuracy this year (though he’s trailed RW in deep passing accuracy the past two seasons).

            AL does throw riskier passes but he also throws the ball downfield much more than RW, especially this year as the Hawks for some reason aren’t throwing deep much so far. It’s much easier to be accurate on quick screens and slants than on deep crossing patterns or outs.

            Keep watching AL! I think you’ll appreciate the plays he makes and start to see how he elevates the players around him. Last night he got nothing from his RBs (28 rushes for 75 yards… under 3 YPC) and still managed to put up 33 points with 370 yards passing.

          • Steve Schwarz

            Diminishing returns does apply to efficiency.

            Unfortunately, I said nothing about efficiency being increased with more attempts.

            What I said is that he’d get more yards and TD’s if he had more throws. I hope you’re not going to dispute that. You can’t pass for negative TD’s. Although it is mathematically possible to throw for less yards. I’ll give you that.

          • Dohkay

            Alright, fair point. I’ll give you that one.

          • Dohkay

            Aw, Steve, sorry pal. I’m sure you were on cloud nine last night watching RW shred that defense and then I had the audacity to point out that in the last two weeks Washington allowed an average of 312 yards passing and 4 TDs allowed to opposing QBs. Did I mention Eli and Foles won the games, too?

            Impressive, huh? I like your FFL comments by the way. Nothing screams “I don’t have an actual counterpoint!” like that. Good try bud!

  • Chris B

    He’s going to have a harder time being a top QB when Lynch is done. To beat Seattle, stop Lynch. Wilson can’t beat you on his own.

    • Brett

      Sure he can. He’s done it before.

    • jacklaughing

      HAHAHAHAHAHA! You’re so funny, Chris B. Good one.

    • Brandon

      Super Bowl begs to differ. The broncos stopped lynch and it caused a massive amount of problems across the board for the broncos defense. And the opposite end of the spectrum, the cardinals beat the seahawks at home without using lynch as a focal point.

    • Jim Fraudbaugh

      That’s just an idiotic thing to say at this point. See: Super Bowl XLVIII, or any of the games that Lynch had under 70 yards and the Seahawks managed to go 5-0.

      • Michael

        I would point specifically to the Saints game in the regular season last year (obviously not the playoff game, haha). They held Lynch to 45 yards on 16 carries (2.8 YPC) and what happened? Russell Wilson went 22-30 for 310 Yards and 3 TD’s, plus another 47 yards on the ground.

    • Chris B

      Lynch’s yard or TD’s is not what I’m talking about. Defenses sell out to stop Lynch but most can’t handle the back end too. The games referenced here, (Super Bowl, et al) are examples in favor of what I’m saying, they do not disprove it. Arizona stopped Lynch but didn’t break down on the back end and that’s why they won, despite throwing 4 picks. GB tried to stop Lynch and they were burned on both accounts. Wilson won’t be the same QB when Lynch isn’t back there taking all the attention, that’s all I am saying. He makes Wilson’s job so very much easier.

      • Michael

        So you’re saying that teams that can stop the run without loading the box, and play solid in the secondary are… good at defense?!? This information must be shared!! Quick, go call your favorite D-Coordinator!

        • Chris B

          Something like that. I can’t believe I’m the first to notice.

      • Michael

        Your premise has one major flaw, Chris B. You seem to be assuming that the Seahawks will either be ineffective running the ball without Lynch, or that they will simply give up trying altogether. If you know anything about Pete Carroll, you know that the latter will never happen. While the former is just ridiculous in and of itself. Lynch is a great player, but every great player eventually hangs ’em up. You go out and find a new player to do the job. The commitment to the run game as a core philosophy is what really matters.

        • Chris B

          The only thing I’m assuming is that they won’t find someone who is Lynch-clone. Rarely do you go from one great player to another great player. It can happen, just doesn’t all that often.

          • Michael

            You don’t need a great RB to have a great running game. Do you consider Alfred Morris to be a Marshawn Lynch level talent? The ‘Skins lead the league in rushing in 2012. What about a 30 year old Willis McGahee? He was the lead back Denver in 2011 when they lead the league. Those ’07 Giants that won the Superbowl split carries between Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, with some Amahd Bradshaw sprinkled in.

    • Steve Schwarz

      Care to revise this statement? Lynch gets injured and RW proceeds to have the best 5 week stretch of any QB in NFL history!

      • Chris B

        Haha, this is over a year old! Did you save this link?

        But I can admit when I’m wrong. He has played great without Lynch.

        • Steve Schwarz

          I’ve actually had an ongoing debate with another guy from this thread and happened to notice your old comment.

          Take a true man to admit a mistake. Respect!

  • Hannah Hayes

    The tab at the top of this page(using chrome) says “Penalties not a factor in first game”, but the title of the article is “Production doesn’t tell full story for Wilson”.


  • Jack

    Yeah, WIlson’s statline is very misleading. I thought he played an average game. There weren’t any great throws that he made and he was lucky not to be picked off twice. He will be fine and play well this year, but that wasn’t a great game by him.

  • Mr. Hmmm

    If a play is designed to hinge on the execution of other aspects of quarterback play – like manipulating the defense, for example – rather than the distance the ball travels and the quality of the final throw, is that reflected in your grades? For example, the Ricardo Lockette TD came on a designed read-option play-action look and coincided with a corner blitz from the same side. The play call was perfect (hot route behind perimeter blitz), the execution was perfect (pulling back and throwing when seeing the corner vacate), and for this Russell Wilson gets marked down because the ball didn’t travel very far in the air? Seems to be an arbitrary determination of what constitutes good play if it isn’t well correlated with success.

  • Mylegacy

    I seriously doubt that wee DangeRuss gives a fig’s fa*t what people call him. The man is a winner. An historic level winner. Love him or hate him – results are what go in the History Books – not the comments section in the Comics or the comments sections in Pro Football Focus.

    This insanity of comparing individuals in football is insane. Football is, more so that most any other sport, a team sport. If you are going to compare players – compare them as to how they help their team, within their teams scheme, win. All else is just silly nonsense.

    • Tommy Tuttle

      You’ve got to admit it’s fun though. There never will be a way to compare anybody with anybody else, because it’s a team sport.

      With the team he landed on, Wilson is akin to some guy who got lost and accidentally ended up in the middle of a party at the Playboy mansion. I mean, he’s an outstanding quarterback and all but man what a stroke of luck to be drafted onto a team like that. If he and, say, Philip Rivers traded places I’m sure Rivers would have had no problem winning Lombardis in Seattle. And Wilson would not be able to singlehandedly carry the Chargers any better than Rivers has. It’s a team sport and you win and lose as a team.

      That said, Wilson may not be another Tom Brady but he’s good enough to do what he does. And he’s still improving. Talk of a dynasty begins in 3… 2… 1…

  • Cade M Carlson

    Play calling dictated the short passing game.
    One near int was result of a great jump and PBU by Shields and nearly caught by his teammate. The other was just a shot play near end of half where PI or great play by Baldwin was possible. He scrambled to his right a little and tried to draw Dix to move away to the right and then just threw it up.
    Did he miss receivers, have poor reads, make bad decisions (not your subjective decision about the shot play).. Tell me some true analysis based reason for the poor grade please. Not some weak opinion based reason.
    Im not arguing, just asking for more. This was a little weak

    • [email protected]

      I like PFF, its one of my favorite football sites. Their grades still in the end come down to one person’s opinion.

      • PFF_Pete

        We appreciate you reading Scott. Just to clarify, your statement actually isn’t true. We have multiple analysts for each game with an extensive checks system in place. No grade is determined by just one person.

        • [email protected]

          I stand corrected. They are the opinion of a shadow group that meets behind closed doors.

        • Steve Schwarz

          Do your “experts” realize that YAC is not just about the receiver?

          Has as much, if not more, to do with QB decision making and ball placement.

  • Michael

    The Seahawks relied on YAC to move the football… Oh no!! That definitely isn’t sustainable with guys like Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch on the team.

  • pprintz

    I am confused by PFF analysis of QBs this week. Tannehill is rated the 3rd best while Brees 15th? Tannehill completes 56% with 1 int and a NFL rating of 80%. Brees completes 69%, 1 int with 90% NFL rating. Wilson rated 19th is given a negative PFF rating with 68% completions, 0 ints and 110% NFL rating, making me question PFF’s very low rating. For a service based on stats analysis these ratings seem odd. Wilson did have an average game and did get some breaks, but didn’t seem to my eye have a bad game. Brees played great and just got beat in overtime. Bad breaks happen to QBs all the time on tipped balls that lead to INTs. Stats don’t separate tipped INTs from untipped INTS, that just the way it is. In Wilson’s game his receivers made good plays to prevent the INTs. That help Wilson and the team, but should not somehow be a reason to down grade Wilson’s play in my opinion. Sometimes it feels like PFF is being “subjectively” negative, by finding faults, as they did in this article with the YAC yards criticism on well executed plays with good runs after the catch.