Performance Based Value: Baltimore Ravens

With injuries and age factoring in, Baltimore's regular season production left them a bit short of full dollar value.

| 4 years ago
PBV-BAL-Feature

Performance Based Value: Baltimore Ravens


In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Performance Based Value” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2012. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it here, but in short:

• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2012
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)

Here’s who shook out as the most undervalued and overvalued Baltimore Ravens in 2012:

(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)

Undervalued

 1. Paul Kruger, Outside Linebacker

The contract year of Kruger saw him take his game to another level, consistently producing pressure, especially from the Ravens’ nickel packages. He finished 2012 with the highest Pass Rushing Productivity score of all 3-4 outside linebackers after registering 55 quarterback disruptions on 359 pass rushing snaps.

2012 Cap Hit: $870k
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.5m
Value Differential: +$6.6m

2. Ray Rice, Running Back

Rice would finish the year our seventh-ranked running back, thanks in large part to his excellent work in the passing game. Highlighted by that fourth-down reception against the Chargers, his ability in space remains his greatest strength, alone nearly justifying the kind of money the Ravens are paying him.

2012 Cap Hit: $5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $9.1m
Value Differential: +$4.1m

3. Justin Tucker, Kicker

The beauty of selecting a kicker is they won’t cost very much, and if they prove productive you’re guaranteed excellent value. That’s how it worked out for the Ravens with Tucker making a number of big kicks on his way to the third-highest field goal kicking grade of all players, while going 28-30 and 4-for-4 from 50 yards or more. His kickoffs weren’t bad either.

2012 Cap Hit: $390k
2012 Performance Based Value: $4m
Value Differential: +$3.5m

4. Dennis Pitta, TE – Cap: $675k, PBV: $4.1m, Value Differential: +$3.4m

5. Torrey Smith, WR – Cap: $770k, PBV: $4.2m, Value Differential: +$3.4m

6. Albert McClellan, LB – Cap: $470k, PBV: $2.7m, Value Differential: +$2.2m

7. Bernard Pierce, RB – Cap: $530k, PBV: $2.5m, Value Differential: +$2m

8. Pernell McPhee, DE – Cap: $500k, PBV: $2.2m, Value Differential: +$1.7m

9. Dannell Ellerbe, LB – Cap: $1.9m, PBV: $3.2m, Value Differential: +$1.3m

10. Marshall Yanda, G – Cap: $3.7m, PBV: $4.9m, Value Differential: +$1.3m

 

Overvalued

1. Terrell Suggs*, OLB

It was remarkable that Suggs was able to come back at all after a serious Achilles injury. That doesn’t, however, mean he represented good value for money. No, while Suggs deserves credit for clearly playing at less than 100 percent, he wasn’t worth the $11.5m cap hit he cost. Why? Well, he  played only 413 snaps in the regular season and really struggled to generate any pass rush when he was on the field — just 16 quarterback disruptions on 223 pass rushes. We’d look for him to bounce back when healthy next year.

2012 Cap Hit: $11.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $925k
Value Differential: -$10.6m

2. Ed Reed, Safety

In his prime there wasn’t a safety like Ed Reed. Clearly that time has passed. He would still walk away with a positive grade in coverage on the back of four interceptions and seven pass break-ups, but it was only the 17th-highest coverage grade of all safeties. Add in some sub-par run defense and too many missed tackles (15) and he was a long way from being worth the money.

2012 Cap Hit: $8.5m
2012 Performance Based Value: $2M
Value Differential: -$6.5m

3. Haloti Ngata, Defensive End

It wasn’t a bad year for Ngata who would finish 11th overall in our 3-4 defensive end rankings. However, the consistency which makes a season great was missing, with his midseason form being particularly disappointing. A vital part of the Ravens’ defense for sure, but far from dominating, finishing only 21st in Run Stop Percentage and ninth in Pass Rushing Productivity amongst his peers.

2012 Cap Hit: $10.4m
2012 Performance Based Value: $3.9m
Value Differential: -$6.5m

4. Ray Lewis* – Cap: $6.9m, PBV: $925k, Value Differential: -$5.9m

5. Bryant McKinnie, OT – Cap: $3.2m, PBV: $925k, Value Differential: $-2.3m

6. Vonta Leach, FB – Cap: $4.3m, PBV: $2.4m, Value Differential: $-1.9m

7. Anquan Boldin, WR – Cap: $7.5m, PBV: $6m, Value Differential: $-1.5m

8. Michael Oher, OT – Cap: $2m, PBV: $780k, Value Differential: $-1.3m

9. Jimmy Smith, CB – Cap: $1.7m, PBV: $560k, Value Differential: $-1.1m

10. Jameel McClain, LB – Cap: $1.9m, PBV: $930k, Value Differential: $-970k

 

Summary – Team Value Differential: -$5.3m

The Ravens would end up Super Bowl champions but that shouldn’t mask some unconvincing regular season performances. Missing a number of key players to injury, and with several of their aging stars seemingly running out of gas in a heavy-hitting AFC North, it was always going to be hard to end up in credit.
Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled

 


  • [email protected]

    Interesting that two of the most overvalued players on this list, Michael Oher and Anquan Boldin, were vital parts of and made huge differences in the Ravens’ playoff run. Michael Oher swallowed Robert Mathis and Von Miller in back to back games as a part of an offensive line which made a huge turnaround in the postseason. Yes, I know Oher underwhelmed at LT during the regular season, but I thought it was interesting to point out nontheless.

    Boldin also became a workhorse in the playoffs. He did have the tendency to disappear for quarters, halves, games at a time but I still thought he was worth the money he was paid. But he did dominate for short stretches during the regular season as well. Games like the Texans and Broncos, underwhelming performances for the entire team, probably set him back some.

    Also interesting that the best team in the league, proven by the Super Bowl championship, is valued at a lower cap number compared to money actually spent. Just goes to show, you can never pay to much for a championship.

    • Ravens One

      The reason why Boldin had sub-par games was the Cam Cameron effect. Also, the Ravens were clearly looking to establish younger talent. Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and Tandon Doss were given “priority” over Anqaun Boldin during the regular season. Tandoss Doss in paticular was given ample chances to make an impact and disappointed (see 1st half of Colts Wildcard game). With a Super Bowl berth on the line, you dance with the girl you took to the prom. Anqaun Boldin’s tougness, sure hands, experience at reading coverage and route running provided the consistent juice needed in the Ravens passing game to secure a Super Bowl victory.

      Anquan Boldin was worth every penny and some. How much is a Super Bowl worth?