Outside the Box: Jamar Taylor
PFF grade not matching up with basic coverage stats? Khaled Elsayed discusses an example.
Outside the Box: Jamar Taylor
At PFF, we strive to dig beyond the basic numbers through performance-based scouting, and the “Outside the Box” series is just another way to dig into player performance beyond the traditional box score statistics. We spend a lot of time explaining why our grades may not match up with a guy’s numbers for a game, or even a season, so this series was created in order to keep all of that analysis in one place.
Why did a quarterback have a 100.0 passer rating and get a negative grade? How does a running back get a positive grade with only five yards on three carries? How can a linebacker grade negatively when he had 12 tackles? These situations arise every week of the season and we’ve decided to show why the stats can often lie while providing some insight into our grading process.
Up next we’re looking at how the Miami Dolphins cornerbacks graded this week.
On the surface of things, Jamar Taylor had the worst game. After all, quarterbacks had a 135 rating throwing at him. Now let’s see what the PFF grades say.
Hold on. Taylor with the best? Will Davis with the worst? What are we smoking? Well here’s the thing. Sometimes we use stats to back up what we’re saying, but we’re not a stats manipulation site. We’re football evaluators so let’s look at why Taylor, with the worst rating got the best grade.
Let’s start by looking at that touchdown. That was bad and it got him the big negative that it deserved. But while the NFL Rating is really skewed by that one play, looking at the entirety of his action he was able to get that back and then some. Check out a perfectly broken up ball with 10.22 left in the game which was one of two impressive pass break-ups he made.
Now what about Grimes? Firstly let’s be honest. He was playing the starters and drew the majority of matchups with Dez Bryant. That will skew things when you’re comparing preseason grades. But while he did only allow three completions for 17 yards, two of those went for first downs and he allowed another completion for a first down that was called back for a penalty. So you’re not going to walk out of a positive in that regard, but that’s one of the preseason pains of a small sample size.
As for Davis he allowed one completion for a first down and then later on this happened:
This is a great example of how stats can be misleading. Davis will walk out with an incompletion to his name, with the stat sheet saying his job is done. But he was killed on a double move where an on target throw has a good shot at going the distance. Is there anyone anywhere who thinks he deserves a positive grade here?
So before you try and make sense of why the stats don’t match up to the grades, realize that is 100% by design. Sometimes they will correlate but the truth is the eye is the greatest evalutation tool we have, and it is the eye that determines all of the grades you get with a PFF Premium subscription.
Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled