NFC South Fantasy Review

| 4 years ago
Vincent Jackson

NFC South Fantasy Review


There are different stats I like to look at when looking back at the season. As with any stats, some are limited by injuries, sample size, or just regular prejudice. Each stat will be the same throughout the series, but putting together a comprehensive review would take forever and frankly would be 400 pages long. Luckily for you, I have split up each one into the most important (and unusual) stats to compare within each division.

With the majority of free agency settled, the players have been moved into the appropriate divisions. Player movement is included in the notes and commentary follows each table. I have included any relevant players, based on team changes and popular “sleeper” candidates. Stats are based on PPR (points per reception).

 

Quarterback

There have been no changes among quarterbacks in this division.

Player

Points Per Drop Back

Points Per Game

Matt Ryan

0.438 (12th)

18.19 (7th)

Cam Newton

0.557 (5th)

19.31 (5th)

Drew Brees

0.482 (10th)

21.06 (1st)

Josh Freeman

0.386 (18th)

14.56 (15th)

With Steven Jackson being the only major addition on any of these four teams, comparing them is much easier. Drew Brees is a stud and a top three quarterback each year. Cam Newton started the season semi-slow, but ended up scoring 49 more fantasy points the second half over the first half. Matt Ryan gets all three receiving weapons back, and adds Steven Jackson behind him, which is an upgrade over the fading Michael Turner. Josh Freeman moves into his second year in the new Tampa Bay system under Greg Schiano, which makes Freeman a solid target for QB2 duties on your team.

 

Running Back

Michael Turner was released from the Falcons and Steven Jackson was brought in. Chris Ivory is being courted by the New York Jets, but we will see if a trade happens between them and the Saints.

 

Player

Touches/Missed Tackle

Carries/15y+ Run

Points Per Snap

Points Per Touch

Jacquizz Rodgers

4.5 (9th)

23.5 (53rd)

0.301 (58th)

0.96 (22nd)

Steven Jackson

11.0 (88th)

25.8 (61st)

0.271 (75th)

0.67 (84th)

DeAngelo Williams

9.3 (72nd)

24.7 (58th)

0.336 (42nd)

0.77 (51st)

Jonathan Stewart

6.1 (37th)

18.6 (34th)

0.237 (93rd)

0.69 (77th)

Darren Sproles

4.6 (12th)

12.0 (10th)

0.468 (9th)

1.74 (1st)

Chris Ivory

3.2 (3rd)

13.3 (14th)

0.547 (5th)

0.89 (31st)

Mark Ingram

6.8 (43rd)

22.3 (57th)

0.370 (27th)

0.61 (93rd)

Doug Martin

5.4 (25th)

21.3 (47th)

0.371 (26th)

0.85 (39th)

Looking at these stats, one might wonder why Jacquizz Rodgers didn’t get the first shot at starting duties in Atlanta. If you watched the games (especially the playoffs), you saw Rodgers look like he was running in quicksand. His 3.9 yards per carry shows he isn’t capable of being a full-time back. He will spell Jackson as needed for rest as the Falcons gear up for another playoff run. Jonathan Stewart continues to taunt owners that keep falling for the Lucy-pulling-the-football trick. Darren Sproles gets put in the best possible position to succeed by Drew Brees, an attribute that will continue now that Sean Payton is back as head coach. Chris Ivory has been a darling of sleeper lists for years, and will shine once he gets his full shot. Doug Martin put up solid numbers last year in his rookie campaign, and will get the opportunity to do it again this year.

 

Wide Receiver

There were no major changes or acquisitions in this group this offseason.

 

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Julio Jones

0.309 (10th)

3.04 (12th)

Roddy White

0.269 (24th)

2.80 (30th)

Steve Smith (CAR)

0.232 (36th)

2.66 (45th)

Brandon LaFell

0.180 (76th)

2.96 (17th)

Lance Moore

0.329 (5th)

2.85 (23rd)

Marques Colston

0.303 (12th)

2.84 (24th)

Vincent Jackson

0.258 (31st)

3.36 (4th)

Mike Williams

0.235 (35th)

3.09 (11th)

Just looking at the rankings as a whole, this division clearly has playmakers. So instead of praising each receiver, I am going to go out on a limb to say Vincent Jackson will be the top fantasy receiver in 2013. The reasoning behind it starts with refusing to agree with everyone that Calvin Johnson should be the top receiver taken in redrafts. He has scored the most points two years in a row. What are the chances a single player is able to do that three years in a row?

Jackson finished thirteenth in points scored in his first year with a new quarterback and new team. He led the category in yards per catchable target by a yard and a half over Danario Alexander (17.97 to 16.45)! The 31st ranking in points per snap was by far his weakest stat as he was 14th in points per game, fourth in points per target, first in fantasy points from yards only per target, and 13th in catchable targets per game. All these stats may sound a little funny (which is what I do), but consistently ending near the top of each category cannot be ignored. The emergence of Doug Martin as an elite running back and Mike Williams recovering from a disappointing sophomore year will only help Vincent Jackson have opportunities to score fantasy points for owners.

 

Tight End

There were no major changes among tight ends in this division.

 

Player

Points Per Snap

Points Per Catchable Target

Tony Gonzalez

0.240 (5th)

2.41 (20th)

Greg Olsen

0.180 (15th)

2.54 (11th)

Jimmy Graham

0.336 (1st)

2.39 (22nd)

Dallas Clark

0.195 (11th)

2.29 (27th)

Tony Gonzalez and Jimmy Graham are clearly two of the most prolific tight ends in the NFL. Gonzalez is ageless and Graham is a matchup nightmare for defenders in an offense that can almost score at will. Dallas Clark is coming to the end of his very respectable career after only 50 targets this past year. Greg Olsen could be a value on draft day now that he will be in his second year in Carolina. Breaking the top 15 in both points per snap and points per target signals Olsen could break out with an increase in targets from 73 last year.

 

Kicker

Just kidding. But yes, kickers are people too.

 

Allen has lots of interesting stats and somewhat funny jokes on Twitter: @Allen_Bassett … and don’t forget the main PFF Fantasy feed: @PFF_Fantasy

 



Business Consultant working in Albuquerque, NM (yes, that's a state). I love football and I love statistics.

  • Tom

    Ivory is a Jets RB!!!