PFF Fantasy: The Hurt Locker(s)

Questionable. Doubtful. Injured Reserve. Physically Unable to Perform.

Those all-too-familiar words are like nails on a chalkboard to owners of such sideline-strapped fantasy studs as Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley, Sidney Rice, Pierre Thomas, or Dallas Clark. Still, the NFL teams that contract these stars have learned to live without their expected production. Similarly, if we play it smart, this pain can actually be our fantasy gain, opening doors to other breakout performers, as well as giving us insight as to who how their absence affects, negatively or positively, the performance of their teammates.

Let’s dive right in and take a look at several teams that have been wracked with injuries or other losses, and evaluate their prospects entering the second half of the season, and fantasy playoffs.

Detroit Lions

Another sprain to the throwing shoulder of prized quarterback Matthew Stafford is certainly unfortunate for Stafford owners, as well as Lions fans, considering Stafford has as much untapped upside as any QB in the NFL. Still, look at what his replacements, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton, have done in his wake.

As you can see, Stafford has been the better fantasy start, but Hill can get the job done as well. Keep trotting Megatron, and even Deceptacon (Burleson) in deeper leagues, out there with confidence.

Meanwhile, in the Detroit backfield, Kevin Smith has rebounded slowly but surely from the major knee injury that ended his 2009 campaign and prompted the team to draft Jahvid Best. While Smith has not put up worthy fantasy numbers (just 3 fantasy points per game), his presence, along with the turf toe injury Best suffered in Week 3, has undeniably cut into Best’s fantasy value.

*= Includes Week 3, where Best accumulated just 3 points, and was injured

We’ll learn a lot more about the status of the Best/Smith timeshare this week, when Detroit goes to Buffalo to take on one of the worst-rated run defenses in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have absorbed an unbelievable amount of season-ending injuries on both sides of the ball, losing the following expected contributors to the IR: Grant, Finley, 2^nd round DE Mike Neal, 3^rd round S Morgan Burnett, ILB Nick Barnett, OLB Brady Poppinga, and OLB Brad Jones. Although at times in ugly fashion, amidst the wreckage, Green Bay has pulled themselves off the deck and enter their bye week at 6-3, one half game up on the Chicago Bears for the NFC North lead.

On offense, rumors flew that GM Ted Thompson would attempt to make a move for Marshawn Lynch. When the trade never materialized, many Packer fans were disappointed. But look at what Brandon Jackson has done from a fantasy perspective in his past 5 games, which have included some difficult matchups (Minnesota and the New York Jets among them), compared to Ryan Grant a season ago:

Although Jackson has improved, backup John Kuhn’s snaps remain fairly constant, and, in fact, his touches have increase as well as the season has worn on. Offensive play-caller Mike McCarthy appears to be getting in a groove incorporating the run game with the pass, which had been a bit of a struggle, as the Packers continue to adjust to the loss of their most dynamic weapon, Finley.  Interestingly, while Indy’s Jacob Tamme and San Diego’s Randy McMichael have become the de-facto fill-ins for their respective injured starting tight ends, the Packers have gone more to 4-wide looks to offset the loss of Finley, rather than give a backup tight end the targets Finley was previously getting. Observe-

James Jones had a breakout performance with Donald Driver out last week against Dallas, but I expect him and Nelson to continue to contribute, with Jones rosterable in nearly all leagues and Nelson as a solid deep-league sleeper.

Tennessee Titans

Kenny Britt’s injury will keep him on ice for an indefinite amount of time. Nate Washington owners may have been rejoicing, given his 31 points in the 2 games Britt missed, while just scoring 24 the other 6…but with Randy Moss in Nashville, he may once again make Washington irrelevant. Or will he?

Moss’ #2 WRs (Percy Harvin, Wes Welker) have thrived with double coverage opening up underneath routes for them, averaging 12 fantasy PPG. Per PFF research, Washington has had 17 targets deep (20+ yards), and 27 targets underneath. If he can grow into the possession-type role alongside Moss (which he wasn’t with Britt), Washington could be a real asset for your fantasy teams during a breakout second half.

Indianapolis Colts

Like their Super Bowl-hopeful NFC counterparts in Green Bay, Indianaplis has endured a tumultuous run of injuries in the season’s first half. After all-world TE Dallas Clark went down, Jacob Tamme has done an excellent job of filling in. But will it continue? To observe, let’s cross-check Clark, Tamme, and the presence of emergent sophomore WR Austin Collie-

The question remains- how good will Tamme be when Collie eventually gets fully healthy? (Presumably in 2 weeks, the same amount of time DeSean Jackson missed with a concussion of similar severity)? As the above chart illustrates, Tamme owners should expect a slight drop-off upon Collie’s return.

New England Patriots

No, they haven’t had a severe injury, but with the departure of Randy Moss, it brings to light one increasingly concerning trend- is Tom Brady still an elite fantasy QB? Also, while we’re evaluating the During- and Post-Moss eras, let’s take a quick look at the widely-presumed heir to Moss’ targets, rookie TE Aaron Hernandez.

The downward trend of Brady is apparent, as he has averaged 4 fewer points per game after Moss’ departure. Meanwhile, Hernandez’ uptick is slight; not as obvious as expected. The moral of the story? New England’s passing game has gone from top-notch to very average.

Arizona Cardinals

Again, this is a non-injury trend, but one that is noticeable. I tweeted (@PFF_AK) about this earlier in the week, but just to put into perspective what many of us already assumed- Larry Fitzgerald is a much more valuable fantasy asset with Derek Anderson at the helm than with rookie QB Max Hall, even if the Cardinals aren’t a better football team. He’s also much better with wingman Steve Breaston playing opposite of him, as you can see in the table below.

For comparison’s sake, Fitzgerald averaged 11.25 PPG last season, when everyone loved him. Fitzgerald’s demise may be greatly exaggerated, so long as Breaston stays healthy and Anderson is the QB.

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These are only a few of the major injuries/personnel changes in the NFL so far this season. Several others have obviously marred fantasy rosters. The point remains- just because your team has absorbed a season-ending injury or two doesn’t mean that you can’t still win your league. Much like we as fantasy owners handcuff our best players, NFL teams are often prepared with contingency plans. It’s our job to smell such plans out, and take advantage of what the numbers say these coaches like to do to compensate for their losses.