Super Bowl 58: Schematic keys for each team that could decide the game

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are both loaded with talent all over the field, but one of the most fascinating things about these two teams is how their outstanding head coaches, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, deploy that talent.

Here are the schematic keys for each team that could decide Super Bowl 58.

Simple looks for Mahomes

Slowing down Patrick Mahomes often requires a variety of coverages, blitzes and disguises in order to make him hesitate for just a moment.

The star signal-caller generally wins even when defenses change things up on him, but showing him stagnant coverages and predictable pass-rush looks pre-snap is often a recipe for disaster.

Patrick Mahomes: PFF grades since 2018

If Mahomes has a clear vision of the defense, he’s nearly unstoppable.

Contrast that with the simplicity of the 49ers defense, and it’s not hard to see why the Chiefs have scored over 37 points per game in their last three meetings against them.

49ers defense since 2017 (Regular Season only)

While the Niners stunt a bit more than the average team, they generally line up and play fundamentally sound defense without changing much post-snap.

This year, the team has continued these trends, disguising their coverages less than 20% of the time, eighth-lowest in the NFL. Interestingly, they changed this approach against Mahomes in their prior Super Bowl matchup by using disguises more than 40% of the time.

Patrick Mahomes vs. disguised coverages: Super Bowl 54

The 49ers befuddled Mahomes with disguises for roughly three and a half quarters before his incredible third-and-15 throw to Tyreek Hill turned the game in Kansas City’s favor.

When San Francisco didn’t use disguises, Mahomes completed nearly 70% of his passes and threw both of his touchdown passes.

Outside of that game, though, the 49ers have generally chosen not to complicate their base coverage schemes. So, could they choose to bring added pressure against Mahomes?

This is the primary dilemma for San Francisco. Mahomes posted just a 56.4 passing grade against non-blitzes in Super Bowl 54, which should be considered a win for the 49ers. However, when he faced them in 2022, he recorded an 80.6 passing grade and completed three big-time throws in the process.

Mahomes’ transformation into a more conservative passer against zone coverages is a huge problem for the 49ers. The simplicity of their defense is a big reason they’ve posted a combined 31.6 coverage grade in three matchups against Mahomes.

If Nick Bosa and the defensive line aren’t able to pressure Mahomes, San Francisco’s coverage unit could be in for another long night against the Chiefs.

How do you block Fred Warner? You don’t.

One of the underrated aspects of the Chiefs’ offense is the interior of their offensive line. Their struggles at the tackle position have garnered a lot of the spotlight, but their interior unit, led by Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith, has continued to excel.

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