Low ADP players in high-producing offenses
You’ve probably read some wheres that playing fantasy sports is similar to playing the stock market. And there is some truth that.
Now the only thing I know about Bears and Bulls, is they both play in Chicago, so my stock advice is nothing to trust, but the principals are the same.
You select players and expect a return on value higher than your original investment. In fantasy sports, its points versus draft position. And much like the actual Wall Street, there are a few heavy-hitting companies you can invest in and expect a greater return.
The trick is keeping your original investment down and getting a piece of their action at a minimum-risk round. So in my first PFF article, ever, we’re going to ride some quarterback curtails and address wide receivers you can target after the seventh round and still take advantage of the success of some of the NFL’s highest-producing offenses.
ADP: 7.04 (76 overall)
When you’re looking at what the Eagles do offensively, there’s reason to be excited about their 2015 first-round pick. Nelson Agholor, the University of Southern California standout, has done nothing but impress in spring camp, and time will only tell if he will jump Riley Cooper and play across from Jordan Mathews.
What Agholor has going for him is a fairly low average draft position (7.04, 76th overall). Despite the uncertainty of their quarterback, Agholor is entering the fifth-overall offense (40.5 PFF Ranking). Both Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles split success last season, which boast will for potential starter Sam Bradford.
The duo combined for 385 completions on 621 attempts (61.9 percent) passing and had 4581 yards (6th best among individuals). Bradford himself, before going down in week 7 of the 2013 season, had 14 touchdowns. If Mathews falls off the board as a WR2, Agholor may be the best and most affordable way to tap into a high-snap, high-efficient offense.
ADP: 8:10 (93 overall)
So, Jordy Nelson (ADP: 2.07) and Randall Cobb (2.12) are off the board. Wisely, you took a running back in the second round, but feel you need a piece of PFF’s highest-ranking quarterback (99.04) Aaron Rodgers. Look no further than wideout, Davante Adams.
The second-year player returns to 2015’s best passing team (56.6) and looks ready to build off his 36-catch, three touchdown rookie campaign. Through 14 games, the Fresno State second-rounder had a 61.3 percent catch rate and was among the top 50 wideouts who played 50 percent of the teams snaps.
The most appealing thing about Adams is his quarterback. Aaron Rodgers throw for a PFF Accuracy Rating of 75.7 (6th overall).
His 4,381 yards on 520 attempts resulted in the second-highest yards per attempt at 8.43, only behind the Cowboy’s Tony Romo. Rodgers also ranked top 15 in dropbacks with 577 in 2015.
Combine Rodgers’ play, with dual wide receivers and Eddie Lacy in the backfield, there are a lot of weapons to respect in Green Bay. A slighted Adams may be your best way to get into the action.
ADP: 12:08 (139 overall)
Much has been said about new head coach Gary Kubiak the Denver this offseason. Who is going to fill in for Wes Welker and Julius Thomas? Will C.J. Anderson be featured in a more prominent role? How is Peyton Manning going to hold up for one more year?
There’s a lot of uncertainty, sure, but the one thing you can have confidence in is that team will find a way to preform. The seventh-best PFF passing team in 2015 (20.6), has been in the top five since 2012 and second-year player Cody Latimer may find his way into that repeated success.
With an average draft position of 12.08, or 139 overall, the value is there. And he has considerable upside with Manning at the helm versus others (Rueben Randle, 12.03; Kenny Stills, 12.10; Marvin Jones, 13.01) you can find in that round.
I would take Manning’s prowess, his PFF Accuracy Rating of 73.1 and Denver’s 614 dropbacks (11th most) to boost well for Latimer.
Donte Moncrief/Phillip Dorsett
ADP: Moncrief, 13.09 (153 overall); Dorsett, 14.09 (165 overall)
This may be a case of saving the best for last.Or at least this writer’s favorite fantasy team.
Two players could potentially see playing time with a Colts’ offense that ranked 12th (6.8) in 2015. Second-year player Donte Moncrief and 29th overall pick Phillip Dorsett.
With 32 catches and three touchdowns, Moncrief has the most experience of the pair. But reports indicate that Dorsett, with a 4.33 40-yard dash time at the combine, has had a successful mini-camp and could be poised to see additional playing time in a variety of formations.
The addition of Andre Johnson will probably keep either from becoming a true WR2, but the value is in their ADP. At 13.09 (153 overall), Moncrief’s situation is far more appealing than Marvin Jones (13.01), Devin Funchess (13.10), and Cordarrelle Patterson (13.10).
And one round later (14.09), Phillip Dorsett’s hype shines brighter than Michael Crabtree (14.08) and Doug Baldwin (14.12).
If you believe in Andrew Luck, like most people do (ADP: 2.01), who ever is the third wide receiver for Indianapolis is an inexpensive way to tap into his success.