JVM: Washington Redskins
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is exploring the value of players. To us it’s a ‘Jahnke Value Model’ number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2013. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it HERE, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2013
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Washington Redskins:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Jordan Reed, Tight End
As a rookie Reed had two of the best games from tight ends during the 2013 season. In Week 7 against the Bears he had the attention of the league after catching all nine passes thrown his way for 134 yards and a touchdown. A few weeks later against the Vikings he had one of the best run blocking performances by a tight end for the season. The fact that he was in the first year of his rookie contract also helps him to the top of this list.
2013 Cap Hit: $500k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $5.6m
Value Differential: +$5.0m
2. Brian Orakpo, Outside Linebacker
It was both a contract year as well as a year returning from injury for Brian Orakpo, and he made the most of it. He was the second-highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker in coverage, third-best against the run, and eighth in pass rushing. While the team’s defense as a whole struggled, this is a clear example of someone playing well on a poor unit. He will definitely get paid more next offseason so his cap hits in the future will be closer to his performance based value.
2013 Cap Hit: $5.1m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $10.0m
Value Differential: +$4.9m
3. Tyler Polumbus, Right Tackle
After a terrible year and a half in Washington, Polumbus improved immensely in 2013. In 2012 he allowed 58 overall pressures and cut that down to 41 this past season. His run blocking also saw an improvement. It certainly helps Washington that this year three of their five starting offensive linemen are underpaid by nearly $10m with all three under contract for 2014.
2013 Cap Hit: $900k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $5.5m
Value Differential: +$4.6m
4. Trent Williams, LT – Cap: $8.0m, JVM: $11.0m, Value Differential: +$3.0m
5. Alfred Morris, HB– Cap: $500k, JVM: $3.5m, Value Differential: +$3.0m
6. Kory Lichtensteiger, LG – Cap: $1.8m, JVM: $3.9m, Value Differential: +$2.1m
7. Ryan Kerrigan, OLB – Cap: $2.4m, JVM: $3.7m, Value Differential: +$1.4m
8. Robert Griffin III, QB – Cap: $4.8m, JVM: $5.4m, Value Differential: +$600k
9. Adam Gettis, LG – Cap: $500k, JVM: $900k, Value Differential: +$400k
10. Leonard Hankerson, WR – Cap: $700k, JVM: $1.0m, Value Differential: +$300k
1. London Fletcher, Inside Linebacker
As recently as 2011 Fletcher was grading as a very good inside linebacker, but his 2012 season was bad and his 2013 season was worse. His 5.0% Run Stop Percentage was the second lowest mark for all middle/inside linebackers with at least 100 run snaps. His biggest strength in recent years had been his play in coverage, but that was also below average in 2013 where he wasn’t any better than a replacement level player.
2013 Cap Hit: $6.2m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $900k
Value Differential: -$5.3m
2. Josh Morgan, Wide Receiver
Washington has a lot of money tied up in their receivers but they haven’t gotten much production out of them. While Morgan is paid like a decent starting receiver, he was only playing 38.6% of snaps despite being relatively healthy throughout the year. There were only four games during the season where he caught more than 20 receiving yards, and never topped 60 in a game. He is a free agent this year, and the only way he would return is at a much smaller salary.
2013 Cap Hit: $5.1m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $700k
Value Differential: -$4.4m
3. Santana Moss, Wide Receiver
Similar to Morgan, Moss is paid like a starter but he only played in 48.6% of snaps despite not missing a game. Since coming to Washington he’s had a problem dropping the football, but this year his drop rate was his worst (16%) and seventh-worst in the league. While he made more of an impact than Morgan, he also had more poor plays. His time in the NFL is winding down.
2013 Cap Hit: $4.2m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $900k
Value Differential: -$3.2m
4. Stephen Bowen, DE* – Cap: $3.5m, JVM: $600k, Value Differential: -$2.9m
5. Pierre Garcon, WR– Cap: $8.2m, JVM: $5.6m, Value Differential: $-2.6m
6. Josh Wilson, CB – Cap: $3.3m, JVM: $1.2m, Value Differential: -$2.2m
7. Chris Chester, RG – Cap: $4.3m, JVM: $2.3m, Value Differential: -$2.0m
8. Fred Davis, TE* – Cap: $2.5m, JVM: $700k, Value Differential: -$1.8m
9. Barry Cofield, DL – Cap: $3.7m, JVM: $2.7m, Value Differential: -$900k
10. Brandon Meriweather, S – Cap: $1.6m, JVM: $700k, Value Differential: -$900k
Summary – Team Value Differential: -$5.4m
Washington is an interesting team in that the most overvalued players and most undervalued players basically cancel each other out. The reason they ended up with a negative team differential is that they had nearly twice as many players that are overvalued than undervalued. Luckily five of the top eight overvalued players are free agents and they have money to spend, so a turnaround in 2014 is certainly possible.
Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke