Last week, we looked at big leaps in fantasy production among teams, and whether regression looms for those teams heading into 2016. (Short answer: probably.) This week, we’re looking at the opposite: Teams that saw a significant reduction in their fantasy production in 2015. Will regression work in teams’ favor this time?
As a reminder, when discussing fantasy production for a team, we mean just fantasy points put up by the offense, no kickers or defenses. We have six teams to discuss today.
The teams
The six teams that saw their fantasy production fall off by at least 10 percent in 2015 were the Dallas Cowboys (28.8 percent), Indianapolis Colts (26.6), Denver Broncos (24), Green Bay Packers (16), St. Louis Rams (14.5) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (13.4).
That’s a lower threshold than for improving teams, where we looked for 20-percent jumps and larger. The simple fact is that teams make big leaps more often than they fall off in any big way. The biggest leap in fantasy production in the last five years was 76.1 percent, by the 2010-11 Carolina Panthers. By contrast, the biggest falloff was only 34.8 percent, by the 2010-11 Indianapolis Colts. Nineteen teams in the last five years have gotten 20-plus percent better; only six teams have gotten that much worse.
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