Fantasy: Regression Revisited

Back on November 3, I posted ‘The wonderful world of regression’, which investigated several players (22 to be exact) with abnormal touchdown rates through the first 8 weeks of the 2010 regular season. From there, I projected each player’s future touchdown rate and predicted regression to that touchdown rate in all cases. Back on December 1, with 4 weeks still remaining in the regular season, I followed up on the piece. It showed that 21 of the 22 touchdown rates had regressed, a 95% success rate. Today, I’ll do a more thorough assessment of the original regression piece and follow it up with a few inflated (or deflated) touchdown rates from the entire 2010 regular season. This will allow us to key on a few overrated and underrated players in 2011 fantasy drafts.

Part 1: Recapping 2010

The results are in and they show an impressive 91% success rate. That’s a decline of 4% (1 of the 22 players) since our December 1 update, but clearly this experiment was a gigantic success. On December 1, Brandon Marshall was our only outlier, having failed to score in the 4 weeks between the 2 pieces. Regression finally kicked in during weeks 14-15, however, as he racked up a touchdown in each of those games.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that two other players went the wrong direction. Marshall’s teammate was one of the guilty parties. Ricky Williams 1.3% TD rate at the midway point actually ended up at 1.3% at season’s end, but looking at a few more decimal places, you’ll see a slight drop. Ronnie Brown was able to increase his mark by 1.4%, however, which explains where those potential scores ended up. Meanwhile, enemy of all Jamaal Charles owners and Chiefs tailback Thomas Jones was busy falling short of the endzone. Jones scored on 2.5% of his touches in weeks 1-8, but ended up at 2.3% following week 17. As his role decreased, so did his chances to score, as, similar to Brown, Jamaal Charles racked up the touchdowns at the running back position.

A quick look at each of the other “hits”:

Michael Turner: It’s hard to keep a bowling ball out of the endzone, especially one with a 4.2% career mark in a good offense. Turner saw a 1.2% rise, as expected.

Ryan Fitzpatrick / Lee Evans / Steve Johnson: Fitzpatrick’s ridiculous 6.8% TD/Att mark proved to be unsustainable, as he dropped off to 5.2% by season’s end. With the quarterback heading downward, the receivers followed right along. Evans dropped 4.6%, while Johnson’s took a nasty 7.8% nosedive (thanks, in part, to some drops!).

Matt Forte: Despite a strong 2^nd half in terms of rushing the ball, Forte’s TD/touch mark regressed as expected, falling a whopping 2.1% over the last 8 weeks.

Felix Jones: At the midway point, no NFL player without a touchdown had racked up more touches than Jones. At season’s end, he had 2 scores to his name, but still only a 0.9% TD rate. It’s nothing to write home to mother about, but it’s a win.

Miles Austin / Roy Williams: Austin was too good to not score more often and it showed with a 5.4% TD/reception increase over the 2^nd half of the season. Williams, meanwhile, is a scoring machine, but his 22.7% mark wasn’t going to sustain itself. He dropped off nearly 10% the rest of the way.

David Garrard / Marcedes Lewis / Maurice Jones-Drew: The prediction here was that the run-heavy Jaguars’ high pass TD numbers would regress, while lead back Jones-Drew would find paydirt more often. Both came through, with Garrard’s TD/Att rate dropping 2.4%, while Lewis’ (despite still scoring 10 touchdowns on the season) fell 10.8%.

Dwayne Bowe: After watching Bowe score 15 times, this one almost feels like a loss, but the numbers don’t lie. Despite basically scoring once a week, Bowe’s TD rate dropped 7.8% during the second half of the season. Considering it still ended up at an absurd 20.8%, you can expect to hear his name pop up again in part 2 of this feature.

Aaron Hernandez: The Patriots rookie tight end wasn’t involved quite as often in the 2^nd half of the season, but he played enough to rack up 6 scores, which is 6 more than he had heading into week 9. One of our biggest winter, Hernandez saw his TD rate skyrocket from 0% to 13.3%.

Jeremy Maclin: Maclin was bound to keep scoring touchdowns in the Eagles elite pass offense, but his 20% TD rate was not going to keep up. It dropped 5.7% down the stretch.

Antonio Gates: It’s hard to regress when your not playing, but Gates managed enough snaps to see his TD rate fall by 2.5%.

Kellen Winslow: Much like Hernandez, Winslow was held without a score through week 8, which had him walking around with a “Buy low” stamp on his forehead. He scored 5 times from then on, a 7.6% increase in TD rate.

Vince Young: Young had yet another roller coaster season and his TD rate followed suit. Like Fitzpatrick and Garrard, Young had a very high TD rate that proved unsustainable. His dropped off 2.4%.

Part 2: Names to watch in 2011

Quarterbacks: (Pass Touchdowns / Pass Attempts)

Three Up:

Sam Bradford (3.1%) – One of the most conservative passers in the league this past season, Bradford racked up just 18 touchdowns despite 590 pass attempts. Expect him to throw down field more often in year 2, especially with Josh McDaniels now running the offense.

Matt Hasselbeck (2.7%) – The Seahawks are unlikely to rebound into an elite pass offense next year, but Hasselbeck’s 2.7% mark is the worst he’s put up in a 250+ pass attempt season since 2001. He already showed some signs of regression with a 4 touchdown performance in the wild card playoffs.

Jimmy Clausen (1.0%) – Clausen was down right awful this year, but even the worst quarterbacks in the worst offenses will somehow rack up more than 3 touchdowns on 299 pass attempts. Even if it’s only a 2-4% increase, you can bet that Clausen will throw touchdowns at a better rate in 2011.

Three Four Down:

Tom Brady (7.3%) – As high as 7.3% is, I can’t say he hasn’t done it before (8.7% in 2007). Still, consider that his 2009 mark was 5.0%, his career mark is 5.3%, and his non-2007 best career mark is 5.9% in 2004…which was also a full 1 percent better than his 3^rd best mark. As efficient as the Patriots offense is, Brady won’t throw 36 touchdowns on 492 attempts again next season. Oh, and don’t get me started on his 0.8% interception rate.

David Garrard (6.3%) & Matt Cassel (6.0%) – I grouped these two gentlemen together because I didn’t want to type the exact same thing twice. Both ended up with a Y/A above 6.0%, both had career marks in the 3.5% range, both had never approached this kind of touchdown production in their career, and finally, both had operated in an extremely run heavy offense in 2011. Maurice Jones-Drew and Jamaal Charles did the dirty work to get the ball down the field, but Garrard and Cassel, respectively, reaped the rewards. Expect this to fix itself in 2011.

Tim Tebow (6.1%) – Tebow doesn’t have much of a sample size to work with (82 pass attempts), but it’s important that we address the hype before it gets full psalm. It’s tough enough to keep up a 6.1% TD rate, but also consider his 12.2% TD/Completion rate and 50% completion percentage. Tebow struggled to complete passes in his brief 2010 stint, but many of the passes that were actually caught went for big yards and touchdowns. He won’t be able to rack up 16 yards per completion and throw for a score on 12% of his passes going forward. If he does, he’ll be in the hall of fame before Tony Gonzalez.

Running Backs: (Touchdowns / Carries)

Three Up:

Felix Jones (0.5%) – Jones ended the 2010 season as arguably the unluckiest player in the NFL when it comes to touchdown production. Not only did he score just once on 185 carries, he also scored just once on 48 receptions. That 0.9% TD/Touch mark is the lowest in the league (min. 100 touches). Expect a solid, and potentially huge, rebound in 2011.

Shonn Greene (1.1%) – A popular 2010 sleeper, Greene took a backseat to LaDainian Tomlinson and ended up with just 2 scores on 185 carries. The Jets didn’t run quite as often as they did a year ago, but still remained as a relatively run heavy team. Greene’s role will only increase in 2011 and his touchdowns will, too.

Jonathan Stewart (1.1%) – Despite a decent finish to the 2010 season, Stewart scored only 2 rushing touchdowns on 178 carries. The main reason for this was the awful offense around him—one that scored a grand total of 16 offensive touchdowns on the season. The Panthers can only improve and Stewart’s TD rate will, as well, especially if DeAngelo Williams isn’t brought back.

Three Down:

Arian Foster (4.9%) – 4.9% isn’t overly ridiculous, but it is one of highest marks in the NFL and it’s very, very rare to see a heavily-used player put that kind of number up in back-to-back seasons. He remains a top fantasy back, but don’t expect to see another 16 rushing touchdowns.

Brandon Jacobs (6.1%) – The anti-Felix Jones, Jacobs put up the highest TD/Touch rate in the league (min. 150 touches). Assuming both Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw return to New York in 2011, the timeshare is likely to remain pretty much the same, but expect a few more of the touchdowns to end up in the hands of Bradshaw or Eli Manning.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (5.7%) – Green-Ellis quietly accrued 13 rushing scores this season and they came on just 229 carries. The Patriots superb offense was a major factor here, but, as mentioned, a TD rate at or above 5% is almost impossible to repeat. Green-Ellis will likely return as the top guy in the Patriots running back rotation, but he’ll be hard pressed to again reach a dozen scores.

Wide Receivers: (Touchdowns / Receptions)

Three Up:

Reggie Wayne (5.4%) – Despite 111 receptions, Wayne scored only 6 times this season, marking the lowest TD rate of his career. Aside of a 6.0% mark in 2005, Wayne has never been below 7.3% (2008) and was above 10% 4 times in 8 full seasons, including 2009. Considering the Colts pass offense remains among the elite, it’s a safe bet to expect a rebound by Wayne next season.

Brandon Marshall (3.5%) – A heavily-targeted possession receiver, Marshall will always struggle in the TD rate department. That said, 3.5% is still way too low and is mainly a product of the Dolphins poor showing on offense. Despite catching 100+ balls each of the last 3 seasons (all in Denver), Marshall put up TD rates of 6.9% (2007), 5.8% (2008), and 9.9% (2009). It’s been a bit of a roller coaster, yes, but one thing is clear: he’ll be well above 3.5% in 2011.

Mike X Williams (3.1%) – The Seattle version of Mike Williams racked up a solid 65 receptions despite missing 3 games, but only 2 of the catches went for scores. As was the case with his quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, regression already showed its pretty face in the wild card playoffs when he hauled in 2 touchdown passes. Considering his role as a possession receiver, don’t expect a massive jump in 2011, but it will be closer to 6% than 3%.

Three down:

Kenny Britt (21.4%) – The 2010 award for “ridiculous TD rate thanks to a small sample size” goes to Britt, who caught 9 touchdowns on just 42 receptions. Considering his clear talent, Britt could be 2011’s version of Hakeem Nicks if the team has a solid option at quarterback. That being said, the rise in value will mainly come from more involvement in the offense. It will also come despite a much lower TD rate. Expecting anything more than 15% is foolish.

Dwayne Bowe (20.8%) – The 2010 award for “ridiculous TD rate despite an acceptable sample size” goes to Bowe, who hauled in 15 touchdowns on 72 receptions. Still, 20.8% is way too high for Bowe to duplicate in 2011. Consider that other Chiefs wide receivers combined for just 3 scores and, as a team, Kansas City scored just 12 rushing touchdowns, despite being the run-heaviest team in football. Expect a more even distribution in 2011.

Mike A Williams (16.9%) – The Buccaneers version of Mike Williams was a rookie sensation, but don’t be fooled by the touchdowns. If you recall from earlier in this piece, Kellen Winslow had failed to score prior to the midway point. Additionally, fellow rookie wideout Arrelious Benn didn’t emerge until the second half of the season. Williams did catch 65 balls and appears to be on track to become an elite NFL wide receiver, but watch for a drop in touchdowns in 2011.

Tight Ends: (Touchdowns / Receptions)

Three Up:

Owen Daniels (5.3%) – Daniels missed most of 2009 with an injury and over a month of football in 2010 all thanks to injury. Prior to the 2009 injury, he had racked up 5 scores on 40 receptions, which worked out to a 12.5% TD rate. That might seem high, but it’s not ridiculous for a pass-catching tight end in an elite offense. Despite managing just 5 touchdowns on 133 receptions over the 2008-2009 seasons, Daniels TD rate can easily eclipse 8.0% in 2011 if he stays on the field and involved in the passing game.

Visanthe Shiancoe (4.3%) – Shiancoe backed up 16.7% and 19.6% seasons in 2008 and 2009, respectively, with a disappointing 4.3% mark in 2010. Your first thought might be to blame the drop on Favre’s struggles and injury, which is certainly part of the issue, but remember that Favre was not in play back in 2008 either. Expecting a complete return back to the 17% range wouldn’t be very smart, but Shaincoe will be relied on too often in the redzone to stick under 6%. Expect a mark in the 8-10% zone next season.

Jared Cook (3.4%) – One of my favorite 2011 sleepers at the position, Cook finally began to show his potential this year with 29 receptions, most of which came late in the season. The sample size is small here, yes, but he scored only once on the year. Consider that fellow Titans tight ends combined for 6 scores on just 47 receptions and you see what could’ve been for Cook. Add to the pot the projected regression from Kenny Britt and you have a handful of scores that should go to Cook in 2011.

Three Down:

Rob Gronkowski (23.8%) – The rookie Gronkowski basically picked up where Ben Watson left off, racking up 10 touchdowns on just 42 receptions (Watson scored on 12% of his 167 receptions while in New England). Gronkowski will remain a big target for Tom Brady in the redzone, but projecting anything higher than 14-15% for Gronkowki in 2011 would be irrational.

Antonio Gates (20%) – I touched on Gates in phase 1 of this article, so you already have some background on this. Gates has been a machine at tight end for years and still had a career TD rate of just 12.3% heading into the season. His career best was 16% back in 2004 and even that is a bit much. Between 2005 and 2009, he was no lower than 10.1% (2009) and never higher than 13.3% (2008). 12% is a solid/safe projection for 2011.

Marcedes Lewis (17.2%) – Lewis is another player mentioned earlier, but he’s a guy you should expect to see fewer endzone dances from in 2011. Prior to the 2010 season, Lewis had found pay dirt on just 5.7% of his 123 career receptions and had scored exactly 2 touchdowns in three straight seasons heading into the opener. He’s clearly a favorite target of Garrard in the endzone, but his TD rate won’t be quite this high again next season.