With the NFL trading deadline in the rearview mirror and the deadline for trades looming in fantasy leagues, the 2017 season is nearing its climax and trends are developing.
The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. The structure of the schedule means we’re drawing those conclusions in a predictable order, with the first month or so of action weighing more heavily in our analysis than perhaps it warrants.
So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 6. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Weeks 1 through 5 weighing in on things?
Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information to this point of the season.
Carr ready to roll
Derek Carr is a sure-fire QB1 after returning from his back injury.
Small-sample takeaway: The Raiders’ passer is seventh in fantasy points since returning from a transverse process fracture three weeks ago.
Real analysis: No quarterback threw more yards over the last three weeks than Carr (901), but 417 of those yards came in that Thursday night shootout with the Chiefs. He followed that up with a solid 313-yard performance last week in Buffalo. However, the Bills had their way with Carr, as he only completed 31-of-49 passes for one touchdown and was picked off twice. That marked the 11th time over his last 23 outings where he was held to one or fewer touchdowns.
It was nice to see him post high-yardage totals the past two weeks, but that was based as much off of game flow than necessarily the game plan. Carr last broke 300 yards in back-to-back games in Weeks 9-10 of 2015. The Raiders’ quarterback continues to be mostly overrated in fantasy circles. His lack of rushing yards hurts his upside. Carr has only rushed the ball six times for 22 yards so far this season and is still searching for his first career rushing touchdown.
Return of Crowell
Isaiah Crowell is looking like the high-end RB2 he was drafted to be.
Small-sample takeaway: With his dual-threat ability and nose for the end zone, Crowell’s high floor makes him a must-start option.
Real analysis: Crowell had his best day of the year in London as the Browns looked competitive against the Vikings, but still came up short of a win. He tallied 118 total yards on 15 touches and scored his first TD of 2017. It also marked the second time in three weeks in which Crowell averaged 4.8 yards per carry or more. That was the same yards per tote Crowell had a year ago. His season-long average for 2017 is 3.4 YPC.
Negative game flow has been part of the problem for Crowell to get going this season. That said, his rushing attempts are on pace to surpass his attempts from a year ago. Crowell simply hasn’t been as efficient with his touches. Of running backs to play at least 50 percent of their snaps in 2016, only Jay Ajayi had a better mark than Crowell’s 3.2 yards after contact. This season he possesses a 2.3 YAC. Add to the equation he’s not scoring as much and the stock has plummeted.
No way with C.J.
Fantasy owners can no longer consider C.J. Anderson as an option for their lineup.
Small-sample takeaway: The veteran is falling out of a favor in the Denver backfield and it’s becoming harder to justify even as a flex play.
Real analysis: The Broncos’ backfield continues to be a mystery and their offense is a mess. Anderson led the way in the Week 8 loss to the Chiefs with 15 carries and finished with 78 yards. However, he continues to share time with Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker, who had eight and six carries, respectively. While running the football might be Denver’s only chance of winning, Trevor Siemian’s inability to take care of the football is a death sentence to its success.
Since Week 6 Anderson ranks as the RB45 in PPR formats. He ran for 118 yards and a touchdown and had three catches for 36 yards and another score in Week 2 against the Colts. In his other six games this season he’s gone without a score and is averaging just 58.5 yards per game on the ground and has a grand total of 55 yards receiving. Cutting Anderson might be a bit drastic, but it definitely makes sense to use him sparingly until further notice.
Thomas tumbling
Saints’ wide receiver Michael Thomas is not a fantasy WR1.
Small-sample takeaway: With declining target totals and lackluster numbers, Thomas has too low of a ceiling to be a fantasy stud.
Real analysis: As discussed earlier this week in my fantasy stock watch report, the Saints are winning behind great defense and a solid running game and that is leading to fewer pass attempts. In the past three games Thomas has been targeted 23 times and pulled in 17 receptions, but he hasn’t found the end zone and that is impacting his numbers. However, scoring touchdowns is a prerequisite of being a true fantasy WR1.
It’s concerning to see the decline in passing attempts in New Orleans and that trend may continue. Still, Thomas is the focal point of the team’s passing attack and should continue to see a large portion of the target share. His lack of TD upside will keep him out of the high-end WR1 range, but barring injury he appears to be a near lock to finish as a top 15 wideout in any format.
Leaving the Hilton
The time has come to drop T.Y. Hilton in redraft leagues.
Small-sample takeaway: The wheels are falling off the offense in Indianapolis and it’s so bad that not even T.Y. Hilton is worth a roster spot.
Real analysis: During the first few games with Jacoby Brissett under center, it appeared as if Hilton would maintain his high-end value even without Andrew Luck. That dream has been smashed over the past three games. Hilton has only pulled in five of his 16 targets during that span for 61 yards. He hasn’t even reached 30 yards in contest.
Hilton has seen some droughts in production in the past, but these three contests are three of his worst five games since the start of 2015 and they came all in a row. With Luck’s return nowhere in sight, it’s hard to see Hilton returning to his 2016 form when he finished as a top-five WR. At this point having him even being a viable WR3 option would be nice. It might be a bit premature to cut him, but Hilton’s value is definitely at an all-time low.
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