We are already one month into the 2017 season and four games through our fantasy schedules, in a league where each team only plays 16 regular-season contests.
The small-sample nature of the NFL leads us to drawing conclusions on insufficient data. The structure of the schedule means we’re drawing those conclusions in a predictable order, with the first couple of weeks weighing more heavily in our analysis than perhaps it warrants.
So let’s take it out of the equation. Let’s pretend the season started with Week 3. What’s different? What conclusions would we be drawing without Week 1 and Week 2 weighing in on things?
Here are some bold statements we might be making if we ignored that first bit of small-sample data and created some small-sample data of our own. And then we’ll follow that up with the real takeaways from the changing information through four weeks.
Watson’s world
Deshaun Watson is a top 5 fantasy quarterback right now.
Small-sample takeaway: Watson is not only on his way to Rookie of the Year, he’s playing at level that could get him into the NFL MVP conversation. He’s a must-own fantasy commodity capable of leading teams to championships.
Real analysis: After slicing up the Patriots and Titans’ defenses the past two weeks and leading the Texans to putting up a franchise-best 93 points over two games, there is plenty of buzz brewing around Watson. As he displayed during his days at Clemson, Watson is a dual-threat capable of hurting opponents in a variety of ways. In Week 4’s route of Tennessee he became only the third rookie quarterback in NFL history to throw four passing touchdowns and have a rushing score in the same game.
His 74.6 percent completion rate is helped by the fact he’s completing his short-range passes. Watson was 21-of-24 for 192 yards and three scores on passes of 15 yards or less this past week. That is the second-highest completion percentage on such throws for any rookie in the past 10 seasons (minimum 20 attempts), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Watson’s mobility also helps him avoid pressure and allow his receivers to get down field and that should result in more big plays ahead with guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
Looking forward, the schedule will get tougher than he’s seen the past two weeks, but Watson is a low-end QB1 with a very high ceiling and he’s still available in nearly 50 percent of the leagues out there across the major sites.
Deshaun Watson was stellar in the Texans win on Sundayhttps://t.co/gpXftK7eMw pic.twitter.com/zgaW0RfqTs
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 2, 2017
Playing like a vet
Evan Engram has bucked the trend that rookie tight ends aren’t useful in fantasy.
Small-sample takeaway: Evan Engram is as important to the Giants’ offense as Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz are to their offenses right now.
Real analysis: During the past two weeks, only Jimmy Graham has seen more targets than Engram (16). He is one of only 14 tight ends in the league to play at least 75 percent of his team’s snaps during that span and the only rookie in that select group.
Engram managed to pull in 11 catches for 107 yards since Week 3, but has failed to score a touchdown. He does have 19 receptions for 200 yards and a touchdown on the season. That puts him as back-end TE1 in PPR leagues, but outside the top 12 in standard formats.
There was some thought based off his college numbers that he would need to be moved outside to be a viable threat in the passing game. However, thus far he’s only running 26.5 percent of his routes from the slot. In fact, of tight ends with 100 or more routes run, Engram has the third-lowest number of routes coming out of the slot.
Given all the weapons in the Giants’ passing attack touchdowns may be hard to come by, but the consistency Engram is displaying makes him an appealing lineup option.
Down with Brown?
Antonio Brown is no longer the top wide receiver in fantasy.
Small-sample takeaway: Brown has the second-most targets in the league, but isn’t converting that into success like we’ve seen in the past. He’s not in the top five in receptions or in the top 12 in fantasy points. Brown is still a viable starter, but simply is not carrying fantasy teams like he used to.
Real analysis: Brown has been fantasy football’s safest early-round pick for some time now. He’s only missed one game since the start of 2013 and in PPR formats he’s only failed to reach double-digit fantasy points four times in his last 35 games (counting playoffs). Last week was his lowest output since Week 6 of 2015. Owners should keep the faith that investing an early first-round pick on Brown will pay dividends.
Last week’s disappointing output came against his AFC North foes, the Ravens. In 15 career games versus Baltimore Brown has only caught three TD passes while averaging 5.7 catches for 68.8. Sunday’s four catches for 34 yards was an even more pedestrian stat line than normal though.
The bigger concern for Brown’s fantasy value could be Ben Roethlisberger. The veteran has not looked great and as a result the entire passing game doesn’t appear to be as dynamic as we’ve seen in recent seasons.
Powell firing on all cylinders
Bilal Powell looks like a RB1.
Small-sample takeaway: No Matt Forte spells good things for Powell. His big-play ability gives him such a high ceiling and his efficiency as a receiver also offers a high floor.
Real analysis: With Forte (turf toe) sidelined in Week 4, Powell exploded for a career-high 161 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries versus the Jaguars. His 75-yard run, the longest by a Jet since 1983, definitely padded the numbers a bit. Regardless, it was still a solid day for Powell.
Remember with Forte out late last season, Powell put up monster numbers over the last four weeks. He scored three times during that span while rushing 411 yards (5.0 YPC) and pulling in 21 on his 23 targets for an additional 141 yards receiving.
He now has 235 yards on 49 carries (4.8 YPC) for the year, but only nine catches for 49 yards. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry for five straight years, but Powell has never scored more the five touchdowns in a season. His lack of targets coupled with the fact that rookie Elijah McGuire remained involved last week and Forte will be back eventually limits his long-term upside. Powell is a RB2/flex option at best that will have some strong weeks along the way.
Beast Mode tamed
Marshawn Lynch was more useful to fantasy owners on his couch.
Small-sample takeaway: In most 12-team leagues the veteran RB isn’t even an RB5 right now. His 30 yards on 15 carries is bad, especially when that is your total over a two-game stretch.
Real analysis: Coming out of retirement might not have been the best choice for Lynch. He’s been disappointing through his first month of action and on Sunday he may have hit rock bottom. Lynch finished with nine carries for just 12 yards. After rushing for 76 yards in Week 1, the 31-year-old has produced a total of just 30 yards on his last two games.
This is something owners should’ve seen coming. Lynch wasn’t even great in his last year before taking a year off. Since the start of 2015 he’s mustered one 100-yard game in 12 contests. Lynch has only seen 93 snaps this season and his struggles will lead to even more of a timeshare with Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington in coming weeks. Add in the fact Derek Carr (back) is out for 2-6 weeks and EJ Manuel will be lining up under center and the veteran’s stock drops even further.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.