The top contrarian plays for Week 9 in DFS
“I don’t imagine you will dispute the fact that at present the stupid people are in an absolutely overwhelming majority all the world over.” – Henrik Ibsen
My friend Kyle is one of the craziest people I’ve ever met. We attended college together, and Kyle would get invited to seemingly every party on campus, and he would be the life of every party he went to. I would often struggle to keep up, but was always just happy to attend. Looking back on it now, I can’t help but imagine now how much more impressive my GPA might have been had we never met. Kyle is also one of the funniest people I know. I joined SnapChat just to follow all of his hilarious pictures.
Kyle settled down and married his long-time girlfriend two years ago. Six months ago they had their first kid. I very much have not settled down, and also still hang out with a lot of the same people Kyle and I hung out with in college. Often, we’d be at a bar and I’d send Kyle a SnapChat of us doing shots with a caption reading something along the lines of “wish you were here.”
The last time I did that, Kyle called me several minutes later. “Hey man, do you mind not sending me snaps of you guys drinking or at the bar anymore? You know I can’t join you. I told you, I’ve been sober since my kid was born.”
Apparently, Kyle had sent me an e-mail months ago telling me he decided to stop drinking when his child was born. I apologized and told him how proud of him I was for the decision he made. He wasn’t upset, found the story funny, and told me to use it in an article. Still, I can’t help but feel terrible. I screwed up. I either completely forget that he told me, or I never read the e-mail.
Much like how I screwed up with Kyle, FanDuel screwed up by pricing Oakland Raiders wide receiver, Johnny Holton, at $0 this week. Yes, this is not a typo. You can roster a player for literally nothing on FanDuel this week. Holton has one career target and five career carries. He will likely not score any points this week. Still, he has value in DFS because if you play him and take the zero, you can basically play whoever else you want at every position. I honestly have no idea if this makes Holton a strong play or not, but it does make him compelling at the very least.
Looking at Fantasy Aces’ Week 9 ownership percentages from the $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP contest provided to us by TwoQBs.com, this week, the following players are projected to be the chalk (most highly owned): Aaron Rodgers, Ezekiel Elliott, Charcandrick West and Jarvis Landry.
As is typical, we’ll be fading the above players on the majority of our lineups and will instead be looking at the following leverage plays (players who would benefit the most if the chalk underperforms) and contrarian plays (players under 10 percent owned) this week.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (11%)
Over the past six seasons, Brees is averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game away and 25.8 fantasy points per game at home. For perspective, 19.6 fantasy points per game would be good for eighth-most this season. Pretty much everyone in the DFS community is aware of this stat, which is probably why Brees is going low-owned (on a DFS site where you start two quarterbacks each week, no less) despite the attractive matchup. Just because Brees has historically been less impressive on the road does not mean he’s worthless. Just two weeks ago, he dropped 25.6 fantasy points on the road against the Chiefs.