The top contrarian plays for Week 7 in DFS
“To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are euphorically buying takes the greatest courage, but provides the greatest profit.” – John Templeton
Shout out to Mallen21, who took down last week’s DraftKings Millionaire Maker with the following lineup:
After Week 5’s poor showing, I rebounded nicely, having a very profitable Week 6. Still, it could have been even more profitable. Honestly, I was close to making a very similar lineup to the one Mallen21 ended up with. And you could have too, here’s how:
Matt Stafford was the first player I wrote up in last week’s article. If you started with him, then it made sense to also add one of his passing-game options (stacking a quarterback with a wide receiver increases your ceiling, which is exactly what we’re looking for in GPPs) to your lineup. It might have made sense to play Marvin Jones, who headed into the week as fantasy’s No. 7 wide receiver in PPR leagues, against the Rams who were without their top cornerback Trumaine Johnson. However, Jones was also likely much higher-owned than fellow Lions wide receiver Golden Tate. Jones also had only seen 12 targets over the prior two weeks. With Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick sitting out, Tate made a lot of sense as a contrarian play.
From there, you might also want to stack a wide receiver on the opposite team of your quarterback (as that has proved to have a positive correlation as well). Though Tavon Austin was in an attractive matchup, Kenny Britt had as many receptions and 84 more receiving yards than Austin over their prior two games. With Austin coming in at 19 percent owned, Britt was the sharper leverage play.
From there, you’d just slide in Rob Gronkowski, who I also wrote up, mentioning he was top-three in my projections and only two percent owned on FantasyAces’ Thursday slate. Then you’d add in Michael Thomas, whom I also (very briefly) mentioned in last week’s article. Thomas made sense as New Orleans had the second-highest implied total of the week, and slot receiver Willie Snead admitted he was playing at less than 100 percent up against fantasy’s toughest defense against the slot. Then the rest is easy — just play three of the highest-owned running backs, Philadelphia’s defense, win a million dollars, and call it a day.
Looking at Fantasy Aces’ Week 7 ownership percentages from the $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP contest provided to us by TwoQBs.com, this week, the following players are projected to be the chalk (most highly owned): Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Jacquizz Rodgers, Demarco Murray, Mike Gillislee, Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Rob Gronkowski and Hunter Henry
As is typical, we’ll be fading the above players on the majority of our lineups and will instead be looking at the following leverage plays (players who would benefit the most if the chalk underperforms) and contrarian plays (players under 7.5 percent owned) this week:
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (12%)
Bortles came in at only 12 percent owned on Fantasy Aces’ Thursday slate, which seems shockingly low for a DFS site where you start two quarterbacks each week. Bortles has a dream matchup against an Oakland Raiders defense that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the most yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Jacksonville’s running backs are averaging only 53 rushing yards per game (worst in the league), so if the Jaguars are going to do anything Sunday, it will likely be through the air.