The long-term fantasy value of a dynasty draft pick
When trading away a draft pick for a real player in dynasty leagues, fantasy owners know they’re trading away potential for a player who has proven they can play at the NFL level. But how much potential is actually being traded away, and what is a first-round dynasty pick actually worth?
I’ve gone back through 2009 (which was the earliest rookie ADP was accessible) to find out the answer to this question, and what to expect out of a top-six pick, as well as a top-12 or top-24 pick, and how the production breaks down between running backs and receivers.
So in the coming month or so, when you have your rookie draft and someone offers you, say, T.Y. Hilton for a top-six rookie pick, should you take it?
Cream of the crop (top-six pick)
Gauging exactly where a pick might come in a future draft is difficult, but in general, you can at least figure it will fall into a tier — either early in the draft or later. Basically, you don’t know if a pick will be second or fourth, but you can guess whether it’ll be second or 11th. For that reason, I’ve separated this study into the top and the bottom of rounds.