Our Cam Mellor recently dissected the importance of pass-blocking efficiency in terms of wins and losses, but what about for a quarterback’s fantasy success? Wanting to get a quick visual of the best and worst performers, I put together a heat map showing how often each QB faced pressure in 2016, and how they fared in those situations. As a primer, let’s take a look at two QBs who are in the elite debate, one going in the late second round and the other with an ADP in the late fifth.
The Colts’ offensive line allowed pressure on a league-high 39.3 percent of passing plays in 2016. Conversely, the Packers were at a league-low 19.5 percent, or half the frequency, as Aaron Rodgers took virtually every offensive snap and scored a position-high 380 fantasy points. In fact, he dropped back to pass 61 more times than Andrew Luck, who missed one game, and yet Luck felt heat on 70 more dropbacks. While it’s true that Rodgers has proven more effective in traffic (93.8 QB rating vs. 72.0 for Luck), the evidence suggests that with better protection, Luck is certainly capable of finishing as the top overall fantasy QB – he did still finish fourth in QB fantasy scoring last season and trails only Rodgers on a per-game basis since 2014.
Below, we’ll dig a bit deeper at eight notable fantasy QBs with the most to gain or lose in 2017 based on protection trends.
(Notes: PBE means pass-blocking efficiency; numbers in parentheses next to player names are their 2016 PBE positional rank)
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
2016 PFF OL rank: 32
Key offseason additions: G Luke Joeckel (69th), G Oday Aboushi (51st), OL Ethan Pocic (second-round draft pick)
Key subtractions: T Garry Gilliam (46th), T Bradley Sowell (54th)
Justin Britt never allowed a single hit or sack in 602 pass-blocking snaps last season, as he posted the seventh-best PBE rating (98.3) among centers. The rest of Seattle’s O-line, however, was an unmitigated disaster. George Fant made 10 starts at the all-important left tackle position despite never playing there in his life, and – surprise, surprise – he graded out as PFF’s worst tackle in 2016. Although Fant packed on 25 pounds and hit the film room this offseason, it remains to be seen how much the dial has actually moved. Seattle also brought in draft bust Luke Joeckel to compete for a spot at guard along with former Houston guard Oday Aboushi, in addition to spending a second-round pick on Ethan Pocic, a versatile lineman out of LSU.
Unsurprisingly, Wilson threw for a league-high 1,560 yards under pressure, as virtually every other play became an escape drill. But Wilson also posted the league’s fourth-best QB rating when pressured (85.8), thanks to his quick decision-making and mobility to avoid being left under the tire tracks. All things considered, Wilson’s fantasy owners can likely expect more of the same in 2017.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
2016 PFF OL rank: 25
Key offseason additions: T Zach Banner (fourth round)
Key subtractions: none
One of Luck’s unique traits is his ability to use his big frame (6-foot-4, 240) to shake off would-be tacklers and buy himself some time. Unfortunately, it’s a trait he has had to rely on far too often. He operated out of a clean pocket only 55.6 percent of the time in 2016, the lowest rate in the league. Conversely, Luck’s 112.0 QB rating when kept clean ranked fifth-best, as he threw for 20 touchdowns and only four interceptions while completing 80 percent of his aimed throws. Given time to throw, it’s clear that Luck can pick a defense apart as well as anybody. But will he actually have time to throw in 2017?
The Colts’ starting-five graded out well last season, but injuries took their toll and backups were eventually exposed. A healthy Jack Mewhort should go a long way after he missed a half-dozen games, and massive fourth-rounder Zach Banner could challenge for a starting gig at right tackle. The Colts opted not to spend in free agency and are instead banking on continuity and improvement from a relatively young unit with room to grow.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2016 PFF OL rank: 2
Key offseason additions: none
Key subtractions: G Ronald Leary (35th), T Doug Free (43rd)
As a unit, the Cowboys’ OL finished ninth in PBE (81.2) in 2016. Prescott oftentimes did what rookie QBs tend to do: hold the ball too long. Prescott did have the third-best QB rating (102.8) when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw, but he also averaged 2.89 seconds to release, which was the fourth-longest average release time. When he got the ball out within 2.5 seconds, his QB rating improved to 108.2 (fourth-best). The quicker that Prescott can make his reads and get rid of the ball, the better off he’ll be.
Unfortunately, Pro Bowl guard Ronald Leary signed with Denver, and tackle Doug Free hung up his cleats. In addition, La’el Collins is moving from guard to right tackle, and how he handles the transition will be a key factor in the Cowboys’ success up front. Travis Frederick remains a stud (second-best PBE among centers), and on the outside, a healthy Dez Bryant gives Prescott an elite weapon he lacked for much of last season.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2016 PFF OL rank: 23
Key offseason additions: none
Key subtractions: none
Last season, the Buccaneers won all nine games in which they allowed fewer than 13 QB pressures, and lost all seven games with more than 13 QB pressures allowed. Curiously, Tampa Bay all but ignored the O-line this offseason. Ali Marpet was one of the highest-graded guards in the league last season, and he’s transitioning to center. Tackle Donovan Smith simply has not gotten the job done, and the fact that the Bucs neglected to upgrade the position is certainly a concern for Winston’s prospects.
Winston was pressured at the ninth-highest rate (38.3 percent of dropbacks), and his 70.0 passer rating under pressure was the median (and an improvement over his rookie-year 63.3 rating). The Bucs felt Winston would be best served by adding a few more weapons, notably DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard. Considering Winston finished 20th in both fantasy points per game (16.0) and PFF passing grade (80.0), he may need another year of development before solidifying himself as a reliable QB1 option.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
2016 PFF OL rank: 6
Key offseason additions: none
Key subtractions: RG Chris Chester (56th)
Ryan’s MVP season seemingly came out of nowhere in his ninth pro season, when he trailed only Aaron Rodgers in fantasy scoring among QBs. One of the areas in which he showed big improvement was against the rush. Ryan was pressured right at the median rate (33.1 percent of dropbacks) but his 87.2 QB rating under pressure ranked third-best and was a notable improvement over his 2015 rating of 76.1. Further, when throwing in 2.5 seconds or less, his QB rating also jumped from 90.6 to 116.5.
Of course, that was with Kyle Shanahan running the offense, and the impact of his departure to San Francisco is probably the biggest storyline facing the Falcons. Steve Sarkisian takes the offensive reins, and while he’ll retain some of the concepts from Shanahan’s system, the fact is the Falcons are taking a chance on a collegiate coach who has battled alcoholism. In the trenches, right guard Chris Chester retired after posting the fifth-worst PBE among 61 guards, and 2016 sixth-rounder Wes Schweitzer will battle veteran Ben Garland for that starting job.
Given these variables, his current ADP as the QB5 feels a bit risky for a player who has mostly been a career fantasy backup.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills
2016 PFF OL rank: 11
Key offseason additions: RT Dion Dawkins (second round)
Key subtractions: none
The Buffalo Bills’ OL ranked as one of the league’s best run-blocking units in 2016, but did you know that only Luck, Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick faced pressure more often than Taylor (41.0 percent)? Taylor has the athleticism to avoid the rush and extend plays, but sometimes to a fault, as he averaged a league-high 3.35 seconds to throw in 2016 and was sacked more than any other quarterback (42). And yet, he still finished as a top-10 fantasy QB.
Looking ahead to 2017, a healthy Sammy Watkins will certainly help matters, as will rookie wideout Zay Jones. But perhaps the most critical addition is that of rookie Dion Dawkins on the offensive line. If Dawkins, a second-rounder out of Temple, can hold down the starting right tackle gig, it would address the biggest problem area on the unit after Jordan Mills allowed the fourth-most pressures among tackles in 2016.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
2016 PFF OL rank: 8
Key offseason additions: OL Chance Warmack (110th)
Key subtractions: none
Prescott was drafted 133 picks after Wentz last year, and thus far the early returns favor the Cowboys. Whereas Prescott faced heat on 35.9 percent of his dropbacks and had a 75.8 QB rating under pressure, Wentz was pressured only 29.8 percent of the time (22nd-lowest) and had a league-worst 32.8 QB rating on those throws. Wentz also must do a better job getting the ball out after posting the fifth-worst QB rating (67.7) when releasing it after 2.6 seconds.
Thankfully, the Eagles’ O-line boasted the sixth-best PBE, and that was without right tackle Lane Johnson for 10 games due to suspension. In fact, our analysts recently ranked Philadelphia’s line as the top unit entering 2017, thanks largely to bookends Johnson and Jason Peters. Peters’ 97.0 PBE was fourth-best among tackles even at age 34, and Wentz was actually the top-graded QB in the league during the first four weeks before Johnson’s suspension kicked in. While an injury or two along the OL would typically spell doom for a passer with Wentz’s metrics against pressure, the Eagles made it an offseason priority to add depth up front.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
2016 PFF OL rank: 17
Key offseason additions: LT Matt Kalil (133rd), OL Taylor Moton (second round)
Key subtractions: none
Panthers coach Ron Rivera said he wants Newton to run less and get rid of the ball more, but that may be easier said than done considering the former MVP has ranked among the top-10 longest to throw each year he’s been in the league. Now 28 years old, Newton would be well served to listen to his coach. Consider that when taking 2.6 seconds or more to throw this past season, his rating dropped to 71.7, which was sixth-worst. Rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel are the type of quick-hitting weapons that can turn a hot read into a big gain.
Needing to address the tackle position, the Panthers brought in Matt Kalil, who underperformed in Minnesota but perhaps will be rejuvenated working alongside brother Ryan Kalil. Michael Oher will slide over to the right side, although he missed 13 games last season with a concussion, and as of June was still in the league’s protocol.
Stray observations
- The median pressure rate in 2016 was 33.1 percent, and the median QB rating under pressure was 70.0
- As if Aaron Rodgers needs any more help, what’s particularly scary for opposing defensive coordinators is that he was pressured at one of the least frequent rates (30.3 percent) but posted a league-best 93.8 QB rating under pressure
- We’ve only seen flashes of what Marcus Mariota can do with his mobility, but coming off surgery to repair a broken leg, 2017 might not be the year he takes off running more when protection breaks down. Thankfully for Mariota, the Titans have one of the game’s best O-lines.
- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Derek Carr were the only quarterbacks to face pressure on less than 25 percent of their dropbacks last season.
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