It seems like forever ago, but did you know that Aaron Rodgers played a full 16-game slate in 2015 yet finished as only the QB8 in fantasy that year? Or that last year’s NFL MVP and fantasy QB3, Matt Ryan, had never finished higher than the QB7 over his first eight seasons in the league? Can you name the only quarterback in the past decade to repeat as the top fantasy scorer in back-to-back season?
If you are nodding your head, then you already know that the case for streaming the quarterback position in fantasy football has never been stronger. For a detailed primer on the topic and the strategy involved, I put together a user’s guide that you can check out here (and by the way, Drew Brees finished as the QB1 in 2011 and 2012).
At least a dozen quarterbacks have topped 4,000 passing yards in each of the last two seasons. If we go back a decade, there were only two 4,000-yard passers in 2005. What’s more, the last three seasons have seen an average of 19 QBs top 250 fantasy points. After Rodgers last season, there were 19 QBs separated by less than five fantasy points per game of one another. Still not quite sold that you can win your league without drafting that brand-name QB in the first few rounds? Consider that of the top-seven fantasy QBs from last year, four were drafted in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts that summer. Conversely, of the seven highest-drafted QBs, four failed to even return starter value by season’s end.
We may not be as great as we like to think we are at predicting how a whole entire season may play out for each team (let alone who might get injured along the way), but with proper research, the success rate increases when we break things down one week at a time.
Just like last year, I’ll be here every Tuesday with the top streaming candidates to consider for the week ahead. We’ll set the parameters at less than 50-percent ownership in ESPN leagues and/or priced outside the top-12 QB options on FanDuel. Keep in mind that with byes still a few weeks away and no new major injuries, these are mainly daily fantasy options in the early going.
Week 2
Alex Smith (KC vs. PHI) – 28.7% owned/14.1% started/Priced QB17 on FanDuel
On paper, the Eagles defense held strong against Kirk Cousins and company on the road in Week 1, but they were actually PFF’s fifth-worst-graded unit in pass coverage on Sunday. This is also a pass defense that finished 26th in fantasy points allowed to QBs last season and just lost top corner Ronald Darby to an ankle injury.
Alex Smith’s 148.6 passer rating led all passers in Week 1, as he averaged 10.5 yards per attempt with a ridiculous 90.9 accuracy percentage on his 35 throws, finishing with 368 yards through the air with four TDs and no interceptions. For comparison, last season Sam Bradford turned in a league-best 80.9 accuracy percentage (and a record 71.6 completion rate) but ranked only 19th with an average of 7.02 yards per attempt. Smith also had a perfect 100.0 accuracy percentage to go with a 124.3 passer rating under pressure in Week 1.
Can Smith repeat those kinds of numbers? Don’t bet the farm. But with weapons ranging from tight end Travis Kelce to speed demon Tyreek Hill to all-around rookie dynamo Kareem Hunt, Smith is surrounded by a potent arsenal and remains in command of Andy Reid’s offense. Not merely a dink-and-dunker, he also completed 3-of-4 deep passes (targeted 20 yards or more downfield) for 178 yards and two TDs against New England.
Carson Wentz (PHI @ KC) – 42.9%/13.5%/QB16
Sticking with an Eagles/Chiefs matchup that opened the week with Las Vegas’ fourth-highest game total, Wentz will look to build on his strong sophomore debut. Granted, Arrowhead Stadium has not been the easiest venue for visiting teams, and Kansas City just held Tom Brady in check in the opener. However, the Chiefs will be without safety Eric Berry (Achilles), who played a big part in holding Rob Gronkowski to two catches for 33 yards. Against Washington, Wentz completed all nine of his targets to tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek for 104 yards.
However, Wentz certainly has some room for improvement. Of his six deep shots downfield, the only one he completed was a 58-yard TD to a wide-open Nelson Agholor – although Wentz did create that opportunity by impressively evading several would-be tacklers. He also completed only 58.3 percent of his play-action throws (compared to 70.4 percent with no play-action). New additions Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith combined for just 68 yards on four catches, and it’s a good bet the Eagles will make an effort to get both of them more involved.
Carson Palmer (ARI @ IND) – 27.9%/13.2%/QB14
With an implied Vegas total of 26 points as 7.5-point favorites on the road, Arizona makes for a solid rebound candidate against the Colts and their leaky secondary. Already without No. 1 corner Vontae Davis, the Colts are PFF’s worst-graded pass coverage defense after getting picked apart by Jared Goff for 318 yards and a score on 22-of-30 passing.
Of course, Palmer is coming off a far from perfect showing against Detroit, although he deserved better than one TD and three INTs considering his receivers dropped three passes, including one by Jermaine Gresham on a beautifully thrown ball in the end zone. The Cardinals will look to get Palmer some more protection up front after he was pressured at the third-highest percentage of his dropbacks (44.9 percent) on Sunday, posting only a 20.1 passer rating on those dropbacks. LT John Wetzel allowed 10 pressures alone.
Last but not least, David Johnson’s expected absence due to a wrist injury does take away one of Arizona’s top weapons in the passing game. But if the offense is unable to get anything going on the ground, Palmer could find himself quite busy attacking Indy’s pass defense.
Honorable Mention
Tyrod Taylor (BUF @ CAR) – 29.5%/14.1%/QB15
Despite the concerns about Taylor’s supporting cast after losing Sammy Watkins, he was accurate on 81.0 percent of his aimed throws in Week 1. As usual, his final stat line of 22.7 fantasy points was aided by the fact that he rushed eight times for 38 yards, which happened to be right on his league-high QB rushing average from a year ago (minus the six rushing TDs). In other words, we can continue to pencil Taylor in for about a half-dozen points per game with his legs. What’s more, Taylor had a nearly perfect 151.2 QB rating on his seven play-action throws. As long as LeSean McCoy is doing his thing in the Bills’ backfield, Taylor will always have that club in his bag.
Jared Goff (LAR vs. WAS) – 13.4%/1.4%/QB26
Wentz just tagged the Redskins for 307 yards and two scores, and now Goff, who was drafted one spot ahead of Wentz as the top overall pick last year, will get his shot at the same defense. Goff’s 117.9 passer rating was third-best in Week 1, as he averaged a healthy 10.6 yards per attempt and posted an 82.1 accuracy percentage. He also completed 4-of-5 deep passes for 112 yard and a TD. It may be hard to buy into this version of Goff over the guy who looked utterly lost as a rookie, but his dirt-cheap price on FanDuel certainly makes him worth a GPP dart throw, and he’s a fine option in 2QB leagues.
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