Each week in this space, we’ll be taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important stats for fantasy football owners heading into the following week. With 12 of 13 games from Week 8 in the books, here are the five stats you need to know:
1. Zach Ertz has at least 80 yards or a touchdown in 12 of his last 13 games. Over his last 16 games, he totals 98 receptions, 1,097 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 267.7 fantasy points. Among all pass-catchers last season, this would rank, respectively, fourth, 13th, fifth, and fifth.
On Sunday, Ertz totaled 13.4 fantasy points despite facing a San Francisco defense that headed into the week ranking third-best in fantasy points allowed over expectation to the position. Rob Gronkowski totaled 17.7 on Sunday up against the defense ranking first-best. To me, these are the two most valuable tight ends in fantasy, and then there’s a big dropoff.
2. Heading into the week, the Saints ranked second in team running back PPR fantasy points. Over the previous six seasons, they ranked first, second, first, second, first, and first. On Sunday, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara scored a combined 38.5 fantasy points, after totaling a combined 36.7, 42.7, and 35.8 over their previous three games.
The 2017 Saints backfield is reminiscent of a 2016 Atlanta Falcons offense that supported Devonta Freeman as fantasy's No. 6 running back in fantasy points per game, while Tevin Coleman still ranked an impressive 20th. This season, Ingram ranks 10th and Kamara ranks 16th. With New Orleans, we have a robust sample size (seven consecutive seasons) of high-end fantasy production for the team’s running backs, and since trading Adrian Peterson it's been a high concentration of usage for both running backs. No other Saints running back has a single touch over this stretch. For me, Ingram is a mid-range RB1 moving forward, while Kamara is a mid-range RB2 in PPR leagues.
3. Adam Thielen has 627 receiving yards this season, second-most among all players.
Heading into the season, Thielen was someone I highlighted as a player I was higher on than most fantasy analysts. His 2016 season ranked ninth-best by any wide receiver of the past decade (min. 75 targets) in depth-adjusted yards per target over expectation. He’s a freak athlete. He’s currently our ninth-highest-graded wide receiver after ranking 14th last season. Earlier this week, based on 2017 volume, I mentioned him as one of my favorite trade targets. Even with Stefon Diggs returning to full health and shaky quarterback play, I have Thielen as a high-end WR2 moving forward.
4. LeSean McCoy has seen 24.5 percent of Buffalo’s targets this season. This would have led all running backs and tight ends, and ranked 16th among all wide receivers last season.
When drafting running backs in season-long or playing them in DFS, I look for “bell cow” running backs. McCoy fits the bill (pun unintentional) this season, ranking top-seven in percentage of his team’s running back snaps, carries, and targets. After getting “vultured” a few times near the end zone by Mike Tolbert earlier in the season, he saw all four of the team’s running back carries inside the 5-yard line on Sunday. Thanks to his immense receiving workload, he’s an equally strong start every week, regardless of gamescript.
5. Will Fuller is averaging one touchdown catch every 1.86 receptions. The league average (among all instances of a receiver totaling at least seven touchdown catches in a season) is 6.9 receptions for every receiving touchdown. Of more than 1,200 qualifying instances, only Mike Sellers in 2005 was more “efficient” at catching touchdown passes.
On a 16-game pace Fuller would surpass Randy Moss' touchdown record by five, despite catching 52 fewer passes. Obviously, he’s due for a major regression in the touchdown department. I have him valued as a high-end WR3 the rest of the season. If I owned him, I’d ask around the league seeing if I couldn’t sell him for something more.
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