My draft strategy hasn’t changed much since I first discovered Pro Football Focus four years ago. I’ll print out both a copy of PFF’s rankings and a copy of the ADP from the site I’m drafting from. As the draft progresses, I’ll cross off names from both lists and make my selections based on general research and PFF’s rankings. By about the fifth or sixth round, the values become glaring. According to PFF’s sheet, there will always be a few players still listed who should have been taken off the board rounds ago. I’ll then move these players to the top of my queue, as these are likely the current best values in my draft.
It’s no secret PFF has the best rankings in the business. PFF’s Director of Fantasy Jeff Ratcliffe finished No. 2 overall in FantasyPros’ annual ranking contest last year and has four consecutive top-eight finishes to his name. Last season, PFF had three rankers to finish in the top-25; a feat we’ve accomplished for four straight years now. Keep in mind this is a contest where typically over 125 rankers participate.
Compared to our expert rankers, your favorite draft site’s ADP is typically … well, bad. No offense to them and all of the hard work they put into it, but it is bad and they should feel bad. Just kidding. I’m overstating this a tad. Ultimately, what it is, is very different from our rankings. Site ADP is heavily influenced by that specific site’s rankings by that specific site’s experts, and if it is true that PFF’s experts are the best rankers — and it is — then that site’s ADP is inherently inferior.
One of the biggest advantages you can gain as a drafter is by exploiting your draft site’s specific ADP. You can use the method I outlined above (if you’re more old-school like I am), or you use our new DraftMaster tool, or, well, you can read this article.
Below I will be listing a number of undervalued players versus overvalued players (per PFF’s rankings) on each of the four most popular websites hosting fantasy drafts. You can find our rankings here if you’re a subscriber.
(Note: The number next to each player’s name is their value when contrasting site-specific ADP vs. our overall 0.5 PPR rankings.)
All sites
Some players were tremendous values on each site I looked at, most notably players benefitting from a recent injury. Obviously do not draft any of Spencer Ware, Julian Edelman, or Cameron Meredith. On each site, Kareem Hunt, Chris Hogan, and Kevin White were strong values. Furthermore, it appears, each site has quarterbacks well above where we’d be selecting them. PFF rankers advise more of a “late-round QB”-approach than any of these site’s default rankings.
Yahoo!
Draft Jordan Reed (+21) instead of Travis Kelce (-12)
Of the four sites we’re looking at, Yahoo! is the only one where Kelce is listed above Rob Gronkowski. It is also the only site where four tight ends are listed above Reed. For the second straight season, Reed led all tight ends in fantasy points per game in 2016, though Kelce led last year over a full-season sample. Due to this, Kelce appears somewhat overvalued on a number of different sites, and yes, even when considering the departure of Jeremy Maclin. 2016 was a major down year for fantasy tight ends. Although Kelce led in total points, his 13.9 fantasy points per game would have had him rank only seventh-best in 2015. Reed, although highly injury-prone, has unmatched upside at his current ADP. Over the past two seasons (including postseason), if we’re only counting games Reed played at least 35 snaps, Reed has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game. If we do the same for all tight ends, Reed leads the position and averages +5.7 points per game more than Kelce. For further perspective, 18.6 fantasy points per game bested all wide receivers last season outside of only Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Evans.
Draft Dak Prescott (-1) instead of Andy Dalton (-42)
Draft Terrance West (+34) instead of LeGarrette Blount (-25)
Draft Darren McFadden (+35) instead of Samaje Perine (-36)
Draft Stefon Diggs (+33) instead of Terrelle Pryor (-14)
Draft Ted Ginn (+27) instead of Tyrell Williams (-21)
ESPN
Draft Philip Rivers (+3) instead of Matt Ryan (-51)
Rivers has posted fantasy QB1 seasons in eight of the past nine years, so it appears he’s being drafted well below his floor (the 17th quarterback off the board) on ESPN. The Chargers offense is one to get excited about, with the emerging Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams, the selection of rookie Mike Williams at No. 7 overall in the 2017 draft, a returning Antonio Gates, and a healthy Keenan Allen. Rivers has had some really bad injury luck the past two seasons, as four of his top eight receivers in terms of total yardage — Gates, Allen, Danny Woodhead and Stevie Johnson — combined to miss 66 of a potential 128 games over this stretch. If everyone stays healthy this season, he could be due for a breakout year. Ryan, meanwhile, was already due for some regression following his breakout MVP-winning 2016 season. Ryan and his offense hit all-time highs in a number of different statistics, but will likely fall back in-line with career norms. When offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left for San Francisco – and was replaced by Steve Sarkisian who has never called plays at the NFL level – I became even more concerned.
Draft Thomas Rawls (+36) instead of Danny Woodhead (-15)
Draft Mike Gillislee (+16) instead of Frank Gore (-13)
Draft Kenny Britt (+36) instead of Cole Beasley (-13)
Draft Tyler Eifert (+24) instead of Jason Witten (-40)
NFL
Draft Emmanuel Sanders (+36) instead of Jarvis Landry (-11)
On the NFL’s website, Sanders is being selected as the No. 22 wide receiver off the board, while Landry is going four spots earlier. Over the past three seasons, Sanders has ended the year as fantasy’s fifth-, 18th-, and 20th-highest-scoring wide receiver. Last season, Sanders ranked one spot behind Demaryius Thomas in fantasy points per game, and one spot behind Thomas in targets per game (13th), though Sanders is being drafted nine spots later on NFL. Quarterback play is a concern for Sanders, but he’s risen above it in each of the past two seasons. Landry, meanwhile, appears to take a big hit following Jay Cutler’s replacement of Ryan Tannehill. When Cutler last played under Adam Gase (2015), he targeted receivers short and over the middle of the field only 10.1 percent of the time — the lowest rate in the league. These types of targets have accounted for 35 percent of Landry’s total targets over his career – one of the highest rates in the league. Following the quarterback change, and recent comments from Cutler, I’ve since boosted DeVante Parker in my rankings, and moved Landry slightly down.
Draft Jameis Winston (-2) instead of Marcus Mariota (-55)
Draft Danny Woodhead (+38) instead of C.J. Anderson (-22)
Draft Adam Thielen (+48) instead of Corey Davis (-7)
Draft Hunter Henry (+16) instead of Delanie Walker (-37)
CBS
Draft Pierre Garcon (+43) instead of Davante Adams (-17)
For a number of different reasons, there are few players I’m more excited about (at current ADP) than Garcon, who is undervalued on every site we’re looking at. Kyle Shanahan’s WR1s (Andre Johnson twice, Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Garcon twice, Andrew Hawkins, and Julio Jones twice) have averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game during his play-calling career. 16.5 fantasy points per game would have ranked ninth-best at the position last season. The last time Garcon (San Francisco’s presumed WR1) played under Kyle Shanahan (2013), he led the league in receptions and ranked 11th in fantasy points. Garcon also benefits from one of the softest schedules for outside wide receivers this season. Adams, meanwhile, impressed in 2016 after grading out second-worst at the position in 2015. Although it seems current drafters have all but forgotten Adams’ woeful 2015 season, I’m less convinced he’s not who we thought he was a season ago. As I’ve written elsewhere, I’m much more inclined to draft Randall Cobb at his current ADP (though not on CBS as outlined below) than Adams.
Draft Tyrod Taylor (+4) instead of Jameis Winston (-53)
Draft Matt Forte (+41) instead of Tevin Coleman (-31)
Draft Sammy Watkins (+53) instead of Kelvin Benjamin (-7)
Draft DeSean Jackson (+39) instead of Randall Cobb (-6)
Draft Jack Doyle (+18) instead of Martellus Bennett (-27)
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