News & Analysis

Divisional Round optimal DFS lineups

By Joey Cartolano
Jan 13, 2017

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 30: Dez Bryant #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates with Dak Prescott #4 after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter during a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on October 30, 2016 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

This is a look at my optimal tournament lineup for the Divisional Round in DFS. As I will every week, I’ll remind you that it’s important to remember some of the subtle differences between daily fantasy and other types of fantasy football, as well as the differences between DFS game types. Daily fantasy operates under a budget, so the relative value a player offers at his respective price is just as important as his raw statistical production when constructing lineups. As far as cash games vs. tournaments, remember that 50/50s and Double Ups generally have a lower cash line while tournaments will require a unique and high-scoring lineup, so choose the ceilings and floors of your players accordingly.

There wasn’t much debate in my mind about who my preferred stack would be this week. Dallas-Green Bay has the highest Las Vegas over/under of the week (52.5), and a few Cowboys offer great savings relative to the rest of the field on DraftKings. I’ll discuss interesting pricing discrepancies between the three primary DFS sites after we go through my optimal lineup.

QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,000)

At $500 less than any of the top-five-priced quarterbacks, Prescott offers excellent value as the signal-caller for the team with the second-highest implied team total of the week behind New England. Green Bay has been much more vulnerable through the air than the ground, as they have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the league and the eighth-lowest fantasy-points-per-game average to running backs on the season. On the other hand, they have been bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing fantasy quarterbacks all season, including the last month. Given the matchup and price for Prescott and his receivers, as well as what will surely be a high ownership percentage for Ezekiel Elliot, the Dallas passing game makes for an excellent DFS target this week in tournaments.

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