Football Futures Index is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players’ 2011 values based on their current performance. Values are based on standard league scoring with a $200 budget.
Rising
RB LeSean McCoy – Eagles – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $49 (standard league), $60 (PPR)
In an age where the feature back has become an endangered species, LeSean McCoy has somewhat unexpectedly assumed that role for the Eagles. Some of the pre-season skepticism about McCoy centered around Mike Bell potentially stealing carries. That skepticism was clearly misguided. Shady has been on the field for 80% of all offensive snaps, whereas backups Bell and Jerome Harrison have been on the field for 16% and 10% of the snaps respectively during their time with the Eagles. Of course, being the lead back does not guarantee fantasy success. McCoy has had a fantastic fantasy season to date, though, and looks like a more durable version of Brian Westbrook. Look for McCoy to be next season’s Ray Rice – that is to say, he will be a hot commodity in the pre-season. Definitely keep him in dynasty leagues unless you lose a high first-round pick in the process.
WR Anthony Armstrong – Redskins – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $10
Santana Moss’ decline has been Anthony Armstrong’s ascent. The Dolphins lost out on Armstrong after they cut him, and I am sure they wish they had him back. Although Armstrong has not scored a ton of fantasy points, he has now topped 50 yards in 9 consecutive games, which is more than a lot of big-name wide receivers can say. He is, however, in the DeSean Jackson mold in that he is more of a home run threat than anything else. Indeed, his PFF rating is a pedestrian –3.6, which could be foreboding for his future. Still, Armstrong is worth adding to your roster if he is available on the waiver wire, and certainly worth a WR3 start moving forward. Just remember that he does play in the Washington offense.
RB Chris Ivory – Saints – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $17
Pierre Thomas’ inability to stay healthy may have him sweating in his boot. Ivory’s sizzling preseason led some to overestimate his contribution when he first took over for the ailing Thomas, but Ivory has come on strong over the past several weeks and has some pundits wondering if he will retain his role even when Thomas returns. Indeed, Sean Payton has stated he does not want to decrease Ivory’s workload when Thomas returns. Ivory could be a under-the-radar pickup for 2011, being that he would likely start the season in a timeshare. He is not worth keeping unless you are in a dynasty league that allows several keepers, but keep him on your watch list going into next year.
RB LeGarrette Blount – Bucs – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $28
We should start putting “Le” or “La” in front of all players’ names; it clearly makes them better players. Since Cadillac Williams turned into a Pontiac, Tampa Bay was hard-pressed to find a consistent running game. The one that got away from Tennessee has proven to be the man for the job, as Blount has proven himself to be the best back in the Florida twin cities. Averaging 4.5 YPC, Blount has established himself as the lead running back, and could have some big fantasy seasons ahead. He has almost no value in the passing game, but then again, neither does Michael Turner. Blount has a fantastic schedule for the fantasy playoffs, getting Washington (-48.5 rush defense rating), Detroit (-6.3), and Seattle (29.5). Unless you have better options, he is a solid RB2 moving forward for this season, and possibly beyond.
Falling
RB Ray Rice – Ravens Eagles – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $40 (standard league), $51 (PPR)
Rice continued his relatively disappointing season with a 32-yard effort last week, albeit against the tough Pittsburgh defense. Having cracked 100 yards rushing just once this season, Rice has been a disappointment considering his draft position. Rice did turn things around after a dismal start to his season, having rated a 6.4 over his past 5 games after a lackluster –2.7 through his first 7. “Sizzle” is going to be the main man in Baltimore for a while, and he is definitely worth keeping if you do not forfeit a draft pick for him. He has retained his PPR value, and should be more affordable going into 2011. As far as the rest of this season goes, Rice gets Houston, New Orleans, and Cleveland to close out the fantasy year, so he should definitely be in your lineup.
DeSean Jackson – Eagles – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $13
Drew Rosenhaus is souring yet another wide receiver’s relationship with the Eagles, and it could be affecting DeSean’s performance on the field. Jackson is the home run threat in the Eagles offense, but does little else. His –7.1 PFF rating is a far cry from Jeremy Maclin’s 2.3 rating, and Maclin has proven to be the more valuable commodity on the season, both in real and fake football. To add insult to injury, Jackson is a concussion waiting to happen. Perhaps that is his biggest motivation to gripe about money, but D-Jax wants to get paid, he should prove that he is the best receiver on his own team first. Given the Eagles’ history in dealing with disgruntled players, and the fact that there are few other teams that could utilize DeSean properly, he is not worth keeping for 2011. Things could pan out for him, but there are better options going into the offseason.
Brandon Marshall – Dolphins – Estimated 2011 Auction Value: $15
Marshall’s season has been another big disappointment, largely due to injuries and quarterback play. Chad Henne has not developed a great rapport with the mercurial receiver, and Marshall’s hamstring has betrayed him again. Marshall’s lackluster season is not just a story of his quarterback and hamstring, as he has only posted two solid weekly ratings on the season and really struggled over 5 of his last 6 games. He gets treated to a trip to Revis Island if he returns this week, and that gives him just two weeks afterwards to salvage his fantasy season – if his owners made it to the playoffs, that is. Marshall is only worth keeping in dynasty leagues if you do not forfeit a draft pick for him, and even then it is a gamble. He is in for the long haul with the Dolphins, so hopefully they improve their offense and he can become a fantasy force once again in 2011.
Other Week 12 Storylines:
What We Learned: Even the elite of the Elites struggle
Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning have had two rough weeks, and some of their owners are panicked. Indeed, their timing is horrible with the fantasy playoffs looming. Manning’s troubles are a bit more disturbing than Johnson’s, but a player of Manning’s caliber does not stay down for long. He plays a decent pass defense in Tennessee (0.8 pass coverage rating) before getting Jacksonville (-46.4) and Oakland (-10.3). “Every Coach’s Dream” also has a dream schedule, playing Indianapolis (-71.1 rush defense rating), Houston (-28.8), and Kansas City (surprising 38.3) to close out most fantasy playoffs. The point is you should certainly be starting them, despite their recent woes.
What We Already Knew: Sidney Rice is very good.
For all the talk about Sidney Rice’s value being tied to Brett Favre, Rice exploded with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm, albeit against the Bills. Rice commanded the most targets en route to his 105-yard, 2-TD performance while making some amazing catches. Rice should be starting at WR2 from here on out, and should be on your 2011 wish list as well. His value has been depressed by this season’s injury absence, so you might land him for less than his true value.
Pickup of the Week: RB Tashard Choice – Cowboys
The Cowboys look to have committed to running the ball more often, now more so with Dez Bryant’s injury, and Choice is clearly the best back in Dallas. He saw just one less snap than Felix Jones, yet managed 17 more yards and one more touchdown on 3 fewer attempts. His impressive performance did come against a terrible Colts defense, but look for Choice to see the field a lot more moving forward. Jason Garrett has to be smart enough to play his best running back, right?
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_Zerodev
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.