Exception Report: Deshaun Watson aiming for 4,000 total yards

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

Prior to the NFL draft, Deshaun Watson was a polarizing quarterback with outcomes ranging from “future NFL Pro Bowler” to “future CFL Most Outstanding Player.” In just six games, Watson has assumed the starting quarterback role for the Houston Texans, has the team tied for first in the division, and is setting a blistering scoring pace. Here is a look at the most touchdown passes thrown by a rookie (via Pro Football Reference):

Watson already has managed 15 passing touchdowns, meaning he would need just 12 more in the next 10 games to eclipse the mark. Considering he has 14 passing touchdowns in the last four weeks, this seems like a near certainty outside of injury. That doesn’t, however, mean this article is finished. Let’s delve into what has made him successful and look at what his remaining numbers (and fantasy value) could look like.

How did he get here?

Coming out of Clemson, much of the positive discussion around Watson centered on his leadership and big-game experience (My wife, an Alabama alum, provides daily reminders of Watson’s big game experience). From a physical traits standpoint, the 49 mph arm velocity was treated as a death sentence. NFL teams and fantasy owners alike were all over the board with Watson’s future.

What was often disregarded in Watson’s arm-strength debate was his accuracy on deep passes. In both 2015 and 2016, Watson exceeded a 50 percent completion rate on deep targets of 20-plus yards. Only Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield, another set of divisive prospects, managed the feat in that timeframe. Accuracy and consistency were hallmarks of Watson’s game — he ranked 10th in accuracy both when under pressure and when given a clean pocket during the 2016 Clemson season.

What has he done?

Those aforementioned attributes made Watson a perfect fit for the Texans. They needed a quarterback who could lead and had the accuracy to reinvigorate the talents of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. With the benefit of a strong defense, the pressure would be off Watson (or Tom Savage) early on.

Watson was “beaten out” by Savage in the preseason, but that lasted less than a week. Since that time, Watson is managing the second-highest percentage of deep targets among qualified quarterbacks and while is accuracy is down (40 percent), he also leads the NFL on touchdowns on these passes with five.

Another area, one less expected, has been play-action passing. Watson is seeing roughly 28 percent of his attempts occur out of these designed plays and is the only quarterback with more than five touchdowns (eight). His accuracy is better in these situations too, clocking in nearly 8 percent higher than in non-play action attempts.

Where Watson needs to improve most is in quicker releases. Currently, he takes the third-longest amount of time from snap to throw. When Watson gets it out in 2.5 seconds or less, he is completing 68 percent of his passes with just one interception. Comparatively, when he takes longer (Watson averages 3.12 seconds), his accuracy drops to 57 percent and has four interceptions. Considering that 56.5 percent of his attempts take at least 2.5 seconds, Watson and the Texans offensive staff need to find ways to open up passing windows quicker.

What can he do?

As mentioned, Watson is already at 15 touchdown passes for the season. No rookie quarterback has had more than nine touchdown passes through their first six games (Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston). He also has at least three touchdown passes in each of the last three games. If he manages that a fourth time in a row against Seattle after the bye week, Watson would provide just the 30th instance since 1950. He also has managed at least one touchdown (rushing and/or passing) in every game so far this season.

Beyond the touchdowns, Watson is also accumulating yardage, specifically on the ground. Right now, he is the only quarterback on pace for over 500 rushing yards. Considering Watson had a season over 1,000 yards at Clemson, it is not much of a surprise that he is successful rushing the football. This would also have Watson threatening 4,000 total yards for his rookie season, which would make him just the fourth to reach that number after Winston, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton.

Let’s look at that 4,000 number for a moment. Right now, the pace that Watson has going (216 passing yards plus 34 rushing yards) would put him right on 4,000 yards. To be fair, he didn’t play the entire Week 1 game (118 yards of offense) and has had 248 total offensive yards or more in four of the other five games. Interestingly, Watson has games against the top two PFF-graded pass defenses (Jacksonville and Seattle) along with two of the bottom three (San Francisco and Indianapolis twice). Most likely, the typical rookie volatility combined with increasing film for NFL defenses to decipher will make it tougher for Watson to hit the mark. He’s talented enough to do it, but I’m leaning the under here.

Confidence level: 35%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Heading into Week 6, Watson was ranked first in fantasy points, just ahead of Alex Smith and Tom Brady. Only one of those three was predicted in that range, but it is rare for any rookie to be considered as a threat for that placement before the season begins. For a rookie quarterback, it takes a combination of an established offense, a quarterback who can supplement passing with rushing, and a team willing to play their signal-caller early. The Texans and Watson have that combination and with recent injuries to the defense, they may need to lean on Watson and the offense even more.

Beyond Watson, the receivers have been a significant boon to his potential. As a group, they have only dropped two of his attempts, Mariota is the only other quarterback with 100 attempts to see two drops or fewer. Going into Week 6, DeAndre Hopkins was first in PPR scoring (second in standard) while Will Fuller was third in PPR points per game behind Hopkins and Antonio Brown.

There is a fair chance that Watson, even if he doesn’t surpass 4,000 total yards, exceeds 30 total touchdowns. It should keep him in the top six quarterbacks for the season. That said, in some of those difficult matchups, he should be benched in favor of a different starter. Remember that Watson is a rookie who is going to see some valleys in production.