The NFL playoffs are here, and the Divisional Round brings major change to the DFS landscape. With so few teams in action compared to the regular season, there are fewer bargain-bin deals to take advantage of. In the NFL playoffs, DFS comes down to exploiting individual matchup and utilizing game theory to your advantage. Now that we have passed the Wild Card round, game theory plays an even bigger role. A bargain during the NFL playoffs can come from low-ownership players just as easily as low-priced players. Let’s dive right in.
Tom Brady is the most expensive QB on the slate but that won’t stop his ownership from soaring in what appears on paper to be the only plus matchup for any QB on the entire slate. By avoiding Brady, we not only put together a contrarian play, but we also guarantee a varied lineup from those who play him and save budget to allocate at other positions. On top of all that, Keenum’s matchup isn’t as bad as it might appear on first blush. Recency bias would suggest the Saints are a tough matchup for Keenum, but as long he avoids Marshon Lattimore and picks on Ken Crawley, the Vikings quarterback should find success at home. The Vikings offensive scheme under Pat Shurmur racked up 346 yards passing, three touchdowns, and completed 27-of-32 passes with Sam Bradford at QB against the Saints defensive scheme in Week 1. We’re not expecting all of that again, but we won’t need it for Keenum to return excellent value on his mid-tier pricing.
Last week, we advised to go all-in on Derrick Henry due to his ridiculously low price given his projected volume. He was a slam-dunk play and he more than paid off his modest price point. It was one of those situations where we had to throw out the projected high ownership and go with the optimal play. The same situation has presented itself again this week but for Lewis. In his past two games, Lewis has racked up 30 or more points on DK’s full-point PPR scoring system. His price tag has risen slightly, but in a game where the Patriots are double-digit favorites, Lewis is once again an elite play. Making matters more favorable for Lewis is the fact that Rex Burkhead is looking less likely to play and James White is nowhere near 100 percent health.