Fantasy Football: Analytical spotlight on the top 2024 rookie edge defenders

• Laiatu Latu comps to some elite company: Earning a prospect score in the 98th percentile, Latu could be a steal at his current expected draft range.

• Chop Robinson is a bet worth taking in the first round: The Penn State product is currently on the fringe of the first round, but his elite pass-rush metrics are encouraging enough to push him into Round 1.

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With the NFL draft right around the corner, there has been a significant amount of excitement surrounding this year’s edge defender class, specifically at the top. With a few top-20 edge defenders coming out this year, it’s worth diving into their production numbers from college to see how their analytical profiles compare to prospects of years past.

• Overall percentile rank is based on a model that includes a player’s pass rush grades, win rates, pressure rates, run defense numbers, athleticism, draft capital and adjusted for competition. 
• This model includes all EDGE prospects over the past nine years (since 2016).
• Strengths are considered production data points where a particular EDGE scored the highest in comparison to the prospect pool dating back to 2016.
• Weaknesses are the areas where a particular EDGE scored much lower relative to their strengths and when compared to the prospect pool since 2016.
• This article will be a spotlight on the top-five edge defenders on the PFF big board for now. 

Dallas Turner, Alabama

• No. 1 ranked EDGE on the PFF big board
• 86th percentile prospect profile among college EDGE prospects since 2016

Turner is looking like he's going to be the top edge defender drafted in 2024, and there are understandably some highly-coveted traits that NFL teams will fall in love with,  as we’ve seen in the past with Travon Walker most recently. Turner isn’t the historic athlete that Walker was coming out, but he does have a much better analytical profile, specifically as a pass-rusher, as Walker came in as a 49th-percentile prospect using this specific model.

Turner has good, not great, marks across the board and figures to be a work-in-progress coming into the NFL, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as he only just turned 21 years old. Turner may not have the refined pass-rush repertoire of some of the other top edges in this class, but there is still significant potential to bet on long-term as he projects to take some time before becoming an NFL star. He has a comparable pass rush profile to Marcus Davenport and run defense profile similar to Lukas Van Ness coming out. Both first-round edge prospects were drafted in a similar range and did not/have not hit the ground running in the NFL.

Turner’s career college analytics strengths: 

With Turner not having that refined pass-rush repertoire just yet, it’s not surprising to see his overall career win rate among the 30th percentile of prospects since 2016. There should be expected lower outcomes for work-in-progress prospects in certain pass-rush metrics and Turner is no different.

As a run defender, Turner graded in the 46th percentile for his career among prospects, which could also contribute to him being kept from an every-down role in the NFL regardless of landing spot. 

Turner’s college analytics weaknesses:

Jared Verse, Florida State

• No. 2 ranked EDGE on the PFF big board
• 94th percentile prospect profile among college EDGE prospects since 2016

Verse has continually improved across his four college seasons, starting in Albany before transferring to Florida State and earning a 90.8 PFF pass-rush grade and 84.4 overall PFF grade in 2023. Verse can be viewed as a more refined pass-rusher than the previously mentioned Turner, which shows in his career pass-rush metrics, ranking among the best college prospects since 2016.

Verse’s overall profile puts him in elite company among the 94th percentile of prospects, including T.J. Watt, Jaelan Phillips and Joey Bosa. There are 13 edge prospects from the 94th percentile and above in this model — only really Derek Barnett and arguably Chase Young were the biggest disappointments of the bunch so far. 

Verse’s career college analytics strengths: 

Verse’s lone “weakness” — if it can even be called that — was his PFF run-defense grade, which still ranked among the 67th percentile of edge prospects. There have been questions regarding his power and ability to shed those blocks where offensive linemen are on the attack (run-blocking), combined with significant missed tackle issues for his career, which is reflected in this score. 

Verse’s college analytics weaknesses:

Laiatu Latu, UCLA

• No. 3 ranked EDGE on the PFF big board
• 98th percentile prospect profile among college EDGE prospects since 2016

Latu boasts an elite profile using this model, comparable to Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson and reigning defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson Jr., who make up the top 98th percentile and above. The difference is that all five were drafted among the top three in their respective draft classes while Latu is currently projected to go in the latter half of the first round.

Sam Monson has listed Latu as the most pro-ready edge prospect in this class, and watching the tape combined with his analytics, there is a clear argument for this to be the case. Latu has the most refined pass-rush repertoire of the group and a level of technique that has led to one of the more impressive production totals of 27 sacks and 127 pressures over the past two years alone. 

Latu’s career college analytics strengths: 

Latu’s career PFF run-defense grade has sat among the 54th percentile of edge prospects since 2016, however, his most recent season was a significant improvement on what he had delivered in the past, posting an 82.1 PFF run-defense grade as his career high, which is in the 70th percentile for these prospects. 

Everything in Latu’s data suggests that he should be a potential top 10-12 pick in the NFL draft when compared to others who scored similarly. Only Montez Sweat (26th overall) wasn’t a top-10 pick among the 10 highest-scoring edge prospects in this model, which is where Latu ranks.

Latu’s college analytics weaknesses:

Chris Braswell, Alabama

• No. 4 ranked EDGE on the PFF big board
• 83rd percentile prospect profile among college EDGE prospects since 2016

Braswell is the other Alabama edge rusher expected to go in the first round of this year’s draft, posting slightly better pass rush metrics than teammate Dallas Turner, though he didn’t score quite as highly athletically or as a run defender. Expected draft capital also helps the case for Turner, as it accounts for things that the raw data can’t quantify, but when it comes to pure underlying pass-rush metrics, Braswell does have better numbers than Turner coming out.

Braswell’s pressure rate, specifically, is among the 93rd percentile of prospects since 2016, and his quick pressure rate (2.5 seconds or less) is among the 66th percentile (10.1%), which often points to a player with great second effort and can win with power. 

Braswell’s career college analytics strengths: 

A similar trend for a lot of the top edge defenders is lower scores in the run game, which is particularly true for Braswell. As much as he can win with power and utilize his bull rush as a pass-rusher, there are times when he’s unable to get off some of his blocks as a run defender and that ultimately shows in his run defense grades. With little starting experience, he also did not have as many opportunities to work on his run defense relative to his peers, sitting at just 370 run defense snaps for his career which is the third-lowest total among this year’s class.

Braswell’s college analytics weaknesses:

Chop Robinson, Penn State

• No. 5 ranked EDGE on the PFF big board
• 97th percentile prospect profile among college EDGE prospects since 2016

Robinson’s high-end pass-rush metrics propel him near the top of this model, putting him among the elite players at the position, with an argument to be made for him as a first-round pick. He is currently projected to go in the early part of the second round, but with his 97th percentile score, he would be the only edge defender who scored 94th percentile and above to not go in the first round.

Robinson’s ability to win with explosiveness and a quick first step make him a standout in the PFF grading system as his high-quality/quick wins are always going to grade better than second-effort or later wins. This is highlighted in Robinson’s greatest strength — quick pressure rate. He scored in the 98th percentile in this metric, just behind Nick Bosa and standout Michigan pass rusher Josh Uche, and just ahead of Chase Young and a top prospect in this year’s class, Laiatu Latu.

Robinson’s career college analytics strengths:

Robinson completes the trend of all five of the top edge defenders scoring lower in run defense categories, which could ultimately hurt this class in becoming every-down players from the get-go. Robinson’s high-end pass-rush metrics are ultimately going to be the reason he is drafted however high he gets drafted, and if he continues to develop more of a pass-rush repertoire then he’ll become all the more effective at the NFL level.

Robinson’s college analytics weaknesses: