Fantasy Football: Analytical sleepers from the top 2024 rookie running backs

• Ray Davis has a case for being a top-five back in this class: A standout in key rushing grade metrics despite poor offensive line play, Davis’ numbers become more impressive with context.

• Audric Estime vaults up the board after an elite 2023 season: The Notre Dame product raised his stock in a big way this past season, building on his already strong rushing metrics, which include the best mark against heavy boxes since 2018.

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After going over some of the standout analytical data from the top-five running backs in this year’s class, we'll now shift our focus to potential sleepers who rank outside of the top five on the PFF big board and could be deserving of more love heading into the draft.

There hasn’t been nearly as much excitement surrounding this year’s class of rookie running backs, though that ambiguity among consensus ranks could create an argument for some under-the-radar names to push for a top five ranking at their position in this year’s class as well.

A few notes before diving into these running backs:

• These “sleepers” will be players who rank in the 70th percentile in the college production model and rank outside the top five players at their position on the PFF big board coming into the 2024 NFL Draft.
• Overall percentile rank is based on a model which includes a player’s career rushing numbers and grades – both overall and situationally, missed tackles forced, yards after contact, explosiveness, some receiving metrics and more. 
• This model includes all running back prospects over the past seven years (since 2018).
• Strengths are considered production data points where a particular running back scored the highest in comparison to the prospect pool dating back to 2019.
• Weaknesses are the areas where a particular running back scored below the 50th percentile in that particular production category compared to the prospect pool since 2019.

Ray Davis, Kentucky

• No. 6 ranked running back on the PFF big board
• 80th percentile production profile among college running back prospects since 2018
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 102.3

Davis has built a solid body of work during his collegiate career across three separate programs since 2019, including Temple, Vanderbilt and finally Kentucky. While Davis is going to be on the older side (24 years old) in his NFL rookie season, he’s at least done a nice job developing during his college days, including improving upon his 2022 numbers with a career year across the board in his first season with the Wildcats.

Davis delivered a 91.4 PFF rushing grade to go along with 1,131 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns. His consistency as a runner, delivering strong rushing grades in nearly all five of his college seasons, is a particular standout for him, as his offensive lines after leaving Troy failed to crack even the top-95 run-blocking units in the FBS in any of the past three seasons. As a result, Davis had the third-lowest percentage of his career rushing yards come before contact (30.9%) among this year’s class, and the second-lowest yards before contact per attempt (1.5), making his strong production that much more impressive.

Davis’ career college analytics strengths: 

Davis set a new career high in yards after contact per attempt (3.81), which as noted above, was almost a necessity for his success in his college career as he wasn’t getting the help from his run-blocking unit that some of his peers were. Davis’ yards after contact were not a strength for him during his college career, which is why his five-year total puts him below the 50th percentile of running back prospects since 2018; however, it was encouraging to see him greatly improve that number in 2023. 

Davis’ explosive run rate (12.7%) is among the lowest in both this year’s class and among the prospect pool since 2018. As highlighted before, he didn’t get much help from his run-blocking units over the years, and he isn’t going to win with speed a lot of the time, but this is an area where he’s at least continuously improved despite not getting as many free runs as some of his peers.

Davis’ college analytics weaknesses:

Audric Estime, Notre Dame

• No. 8 ranked running back on the PFF big board
• 78th percentile production profile among college running back prospects since 2018
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 114.0

Notre Dame’s Estime consistently improved during his three-year college career, culminating in a top-three PFF rushing grade for the entire FBS (94.0) in 2023. Estime’s 4.27 yards after contact per attempt in 2023 helped propel his career rate among the 85th percentile of running back prospects since 2018 as well.

Where Estime truly stood out among the rest of this class, and even among prospects of years past, was his rushing grade versus an eight-man box, where he earned the best mark among all FBS running back prospects since 2018 (92.1). As a bigger back (221 pounds), his vision and ability to fight for extra yardage have greatly influenced his score in this category and should be viewed as key traits to translate to the NFL.

Estime’s career college analytics strengths: 

As far as weaknesses go, Estime doesn’t stand out as a potential three-down running back right now, in large part due to him not being utilized in that role nearly at all in college. To be fair to Estime, Notre Dame as a team rarely utilized its running backs in the passing game with Estime leading the backfield with just 17 targets in 2023. While he did catch all 26 of his career targets and earned a fine 72.1 PFF receiving grade in 2023, he profiles more as a pass-blocking option than a pass-catching option on those downs right now, and even that is an area he’ll have to improve in order to earn that role in the NFL.

Estime’s college analytics weaknesses:

MarShawn Lloyd, USC

• No. 7 ranked running back on the PFF big board
• 75th percentile production profile among college running back prospects since 2018
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 105.4

Lloyd has been an explosive back over his three college seasons, at both South Carolina and USC, he has been able to deliver an 81st percentile mark in his explosive run rate (18.3%), which was also highlighted at the combine. Lloyd ran an impressive 4.46-second 40-time at 220 pounds, making him an intriguing prospect that teams could be looking to take a swing on, likely early on Day 3.

There are some encouraging metrics to bet on for Lloyd’s success at the NFL level, including a 93rd percentile missed tackles forced per attempt rate (0.33) for his career. Even his yards after contact per attempt are above average (62nd percentile), which speaks to his ability to create yardage on his own and overcome potential run-blocking issues. Being able to do so allowed him to earn one of the better rushing grades versus an eight-man box for his college career (82.2).

Lloyd’s career college analytics strengths: 

There are concerns about Lloyd’s vision coming out of USC, and it’s part of the reason why his rushing grade has failed to come close to the 50th percentile of prospects since 2018. He’s also had fumbling issues with 11 career fumbles both as a runner and receiver despite not being utilized all that often in the passing game.

As one of the more athletic running back prospects in this class, it was at least somewhat concerning that Lloyd was unable to earn a larger role as a receiver. Despite running nearly 200 routes this past season, he was well below average in target rate. This was the case during his time at South Carolina as well and could speak to him still being a work-in-progress as a route runner and receiving threat, which could ultimately hurt his fantasy upside in the NFL.

Lloyd’s college analytics weaknesses:

Kimani Vidal, Troy

• No. 15 ranked running back on the PFF big board
• 72nd percentile production profile among college running back prospects since 2018
• PFF Mock Draft Simulator ADP: 186.8

The deepest name on the list, Vidal ranks 15th on the PFF big board for his position and is trending toward going near the end of the sixth round in the NFL Draft. Vidal has posted back-to-back seasons with rushing grades in the 90s, though doing so in the Group of 5, which likely hurts his stock some when adjusting for competition.

Vidal has handled a significant workload during his college career, with more carries (780) than any other back in this year’s class, which of course, resulted in the most production among FBS backs in this class as well. Even with the heavy workload, it’s a promising sign from Vidal that he was able to earn high marks in terms of his efficiency metrics such as PFF grades, as well as his missed tackles forced per attempt (80th percentile).

Vidal’s career college analytics strengths: 

While Vidal had the second-most career explosive runs among FBS running backs in this year’s class (113), coming back to his overall workload puts things in perspective as his 14.5% rate in that regard ranks among the 35th percentile of running back prospects since 2018 and was below average for the 2024 class as well.

Similarly, Vidal has nearly 700 receiving yards for his college career — a top-10 mark in this class — and his yards per route run (0.85) is a bottom-10 number for this class. 

From a production standpoint, Vidal likely profiles similarly to Chuba Hubbard or Tyler Allgeier who were both drafted outside of the first three rounds in the NFL Draft. The biggest production difference among those three is that both Hubbard and Allgeier were more explosive in their college careers and did so in the Power-Five conference. This likely makes those two the most ideal outcomes for Vidal in the NFL, based on their college profiles.

Vidal’s college analytics weaknesses: