Welcome to the eleventh edition of this column, where each week I examine a handful of DFS-relevant games expected to produce a large quantity of points. The idea here is that more points will lead to more opportunities for individual players to make an impact on fantasy rosters. This week, we will look at two games from the Big 12 and one game each from Conference USA, the ACC, and the Pac 12.
In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Also, I wanted to make sure that both slates were fairly represented, so we have three early games and two late games, instead of strictly looking at the five highest totals on the board.
Southern Mississippi @ Western Kentucky (early)
Projected total of 73.5 points
Western Kentucky: In the Conference USA championship game the Hilltoppers will face one of the toughest defenses they’ve seen this year. Southern Miss hasn’t allowed any conference foe to surpass 31 points against them, while WKU has scored at least 35 in every conference game. Southern Miss is especially good against the pass, ranking 22nd nationally in pass efficiency defense.
Leading the way for the Hilltoppers will be senior quarterback Brandon Doughty, who is the national leader in passer rating in games played at home. In his five home contests he has averaged more than 381 yards and four passing touchdowns per game. He is the most expensive quarterback on both sites for the early slate and I project him as my No. 2 passer, which makes him a solid option for anyone wanting to pay up.
On the other end of Doughty’s passes will be receivers Taywan Taylor, Nicholas Norris and Jared Dangerfield. While Taylor is the team’s leader in yards and touchdowns, he actually has the fewest catches over the last three games with 11, compared to Norris’ 16 and Dangerfield’s 13, which shows the equity of the passing game. On FanDuel, I like all three as top-15 options, with each being marginally undervalued. Meanwhile, TE Tyler Higbee is the top option at his position. On DraftKings, I project them as top 12 assets and would feel comfortable using any of them, depending on your budget. Overall, I love the WKU passing attack.
Anthony Wales leads the way for the WKU ground game and has surpassed the 100 yard mark in each of his last six conference games. He’s been boom-or-bust with his touchdowns though, failing to score in three of those six contests. He is priced as a top-three back on both sites, but I’m slightly bearish on him, ranking him no higher than sixth. Because FanDuel has a bigger slate, I would look for other options on that site, but could understanding using him on DraftKings where the options are fewer.
PFF now has weekly projections for college players, which you can explore here.
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Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.
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