NFL Draft News & Analysis

How the first wave of free agency has impacted the 2024 NFL Draft

2M7AKBW January 2, 2023 Arlington, TX...USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) takes the snap during the Goodyear Cotton Bowl game between the Tulane Green Wave and the University of Southern California Trojans on January 2, 2023 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Mandatory Credit: Freddie Beckwith / MarinMedia.org / Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA) (Absolute Complete photographer, and credits required)..Television, or For-Profit magazines Contact MarinMedia directly.(Credit Image: © Freddie Beckwith / Marinmedia.Org / Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA)

• Quarterback questions answered for top teams: The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons made moves to secure their new starting quarterback.

New York Jets are now poised to get crazy on draft night: The Jets made moves in free agency that gives them a lot of flexibility with their first-round pick.

• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes


Click here for more draft tools:

2024 Mock Draft Simulator | 2024 Big Board | 2024 Draft Guide
2024 Player Profiles | 2024 Mock Drafts | NCAA Premium Stats


Now that free agency's initial push is cooling down, we wanted to look at how its moves across the league impacted draft strategies. Here are a few ways we feel the draft was changed during the first wave of free agency. 


MINNESOTA VIKINGS ARE TRADING UP

The Vikings were in the news quite a bit during free agency week. In terms of their roster, they watched Kirk Cousins sign with the Atlanta Falcons, confirming the void of a long-term starting quarterback on their roster. They did, however, bring in Sam Darnold on a one-year deal, likely as a security blanket for a future move. They then made a trade with the Houston Texans to acquire the No. 23 overall pick. 

Now holding the No. 11 and No. 23 picks in the first round, the common thought by many is that they are eyeing a trade-up. Whether that is at Nos. 2, 3, 4 or 5, the Vikings will be doing everything they can to come away with one of the top quarterbacks in this draft class.


CALEB WILLIAMS: YOU ARE THE CHICAGO BEARS QB

As we watched quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Desmond Ridder,and Kenny Pickett (among others) find new teams across the league, we kept waiting for the Justin Fields domino to fall – assuming he wouldn’t be on the Chicago Bears much longer. Following the trade of Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a Day 3 draft pick, we can now write Williams’ name in pen going No. 1 overall.


ATLANTA FALCONS ARE OUT OF THE QB MARKET

With the Falcons making the big quarterback splash in free agency signing Kirk Cousins, they are now out of the quarterback conversation in the top 10 of the upcoming draft. Prior to free agency, they were one of a handful of teams that we predicted to be in the equation to trade up. Many figured they would be aggressive in looking for a quarterback one way or another, and that turned out to be in free agency. So now that the Falcons are off the board for a quarterback, Minnesota’s No. 11 pick is more powerful as a negotiation asset.


TENNESSEE TITANS ARE BACK IN ON OFFENSIVE TACKLE

Titans head coach Brian Callahan and general manager Ran Carthon talked about the desire to get faster on offense during their time at the podium at the NFL combine. This caused a stir in mock drafts, as the long-time lock for them in the first round was one of the top offensive tackles. The emphasis on team speed could have hinted at them targeting one of the top receivers in this class – as they are in range of that at No. 7 overall. However, after giving Calvin Ridley a four-year, $92 million deal while DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks are still in the lineup, it’s hard to see them going receiver in Round 1. That puts offensive tackle back on the table, and back in the front-runner spot.


THE NEW YORK JETS MIGHT GET REAL WEIRD 

The New York Jets addressed their offensive line in two ways in free agency. First, they traded a fourth-round pick for a familiar face in Morgan Moses, who played for the Jets in 2021 and will likely be their starting right tackle this season. They then signed long-time Dallas Cowboy Tyron Smith in free agency, who will likely start at left tackle. This gives the Jets a lot of flexibility with the No. 10 overall pick. Now, some, including myself, would argue that a top offensive lineman would still be the best pick for them at that spot, as Smith has not played a full season since 2015 (though he did play 13 games last season). Nonetheless, others would argue this frees them up to draft an offensive weapon like Brock Bowers, or even perhaps trade up to get one of the top receivers in the class.


DALLAS COWBOYS NEED OFFENSIVE LINE BADLY NOW

Speaking of Tyron Smith, the Cowboys not only lost Smith but center Tyler Biadasz, as well. Whether Tyler Smith plays left tackle or stays at left guard, the Cowboys now need to fill two spots along their offensive line. This wasn’t always the preferred mock draft selection for Dallas prior to free agency, though it wasn't totally foreign. They could also use a defensive line pick and maybe even a wide receiver. However, those are now secondary needs, as they will likely hone in on the best offensive lineman available in the mid-20s.


OFFENSIVE LINE SEEMS TO BE OFF THE BOARD FOR THE NEW YORK GIANTS

Back in the top 10, there were generally three schools of thought for the Giants’ options at No. 6 before free agency: offensive line (mainly offensive tackle to potentially move Evan Neal inside), wide receiver or quarterback. After signing guard Jon Runyan and tackle Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency, they appear to have the flexibility on their roster along the offensive line, if Neal does not improve. That could signal them really locking in on one of the receivers or even eyeing an aggressive move to go up and get a quarterback. 

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protect your family with fast, free will.
Sponsor

NFL Draft Featured Tools

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit