Contrarian plays and fades for CFB DFS
In a lot of ways, bowl games are the hardest games to predict as far as DFS games are concerned. For every coach that leans on what had worked to this point in the season, there is another coach who will try to use every reverse, flea flicker and Annexation of Puerto Rico they have in their playbook because they know it’s the last game of the season. Bowl games also tend to be higher scoring than regular season games, especially conference games where teams are familiar with each other’s’ playing style and can gameplan defensively for that offense.
This Saturday, there are the same five games on both DraftKings and Fanduel. The first thing that might jump out at you when comparing how these sites is how drastically they differ in pricing players for this opening slate of games. DraftKings has Jeff Driskel as their top rated quarterback, while Fanduel has him ranked below four other players, which is significant when you figure there are only ten starting quarterbacks worth considering this weekend. With such drastic pricing differences on both sites, you should expect to see a wide variety of lineups with just about every quarterback being used in both GPP and cash games.
For a few of the teams this weekend, there is a big gap between their national rankings in their pass defense and their run defense. Identifying these teams will go a long way at identifying how their opponents tend to gameplan against them, and will help DFS players gain an advantage by exploiting these matchups. Keep in mind there are 128 division one schools, and the rankings next to each team relate to their average yards per game in each category.