5 impact games for CFB DFS
Welcome to the fourth edition of this column, where each week I examine a handful of DFS-relevant games expected to produce a large quantity of points. The idea here is that more points will lead to more opportunities for individual players to make an impact on fantasy rosters.
The featured game from last week’s article, Bowling Green vs Massachusetts, resulted in 100 combined points and saw 400 yard passing games from both quarterbacks. If you had those players in your lineups, you probably had a successful week. This week, the highest game total comes from another Group of 5 matchup with a total in the high seventies.
In order to be included here, a game needed to appear in both DraftKings and FanDuel contests for the upcoming weekend. Also, I wanted to make sure that both slates were fairly represented, so we have three early games and two late games, instead of strictly looking at the five highest totals on the board.
Tulsa @ East Carolina (Early)
Projected total of 78 points
East Carolina: With a team total of more than 45 points, ECU should have no trouble moving the ball against a Tulsa defense that ranks 90th or worse in pass efficiency defense, opponent rush yards per attempt, and sack percentage.
Quarterback Blake Kemp has thrown for 325 yards or more on three occasions, including the September 12 game against Florida. On both sites he is priced outside the top 12, but looks like a top 10 quarterback to me.
Of his receiving options, Isaiah Jones is his preferred target. He has caught 29 percent of ECU’s passes and accounted for 32 percent of the team’s yards, both of which pace the team. Jones carries a top-three projection this week, but is significantly cheaper than that at both sites, which makes him one of my favorite receiver options. At an even steeper discount, I’m intrigued by Trevon Brown, who was suspended for the first three games but has been the clear No. 2 option since his return and has caught a touchdown in all three games in which he has appeared.
In the backfield, Chris Hairston has received at least 15 touches in every game and averaged 85 yards and a touchdown per contest. He’s been boom-or-bust with his production, but the matchup is very favorable and he is affordable with the 16th highest salary at DraftKings and 51st highest at FanDuel.
The wildcard for the Pirates is James Summers, who is listed as a quarterback, but contributes in numerous ways. Over the past three contests he has averaged eight pass attempts per game and 13 rushes per game. He could make for an interesting punt play in the QB slot with a minimum salary at FanDuel and a $5800 salary at DraftKings.
PFF now has weekly projections for college players, which you can explore here.
Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane run the most frenetic offense in America, averaging 94 plays per game. They face an ECU defense that ranks 99th in the country in pass efficiency defense, so there should be some big performances for the Tulsa passing game.
Keyarris Garrett is the top pass catcher in terms of receptions and yards, but, despite his 6’4 221lb frame, only has one touchdown this year. He looks like the highest-floor option in the passing game, but I’m intrigued by secondary threats Josh Atkinson and Justin Hobbs, who have enjoyed expanded roles after the season-ending injury to Keevan Lucas. On DraftKings, Atkinson is $1500 cheaper than Garrett, but carries a similar projection, while Hobbs is a discount ticket to this fireworks show for only $3900. On Fanduel, Hobbs is not available and Atkinson shares the same salary as Garrett, so how you play this situation really depends on your platform. Quarterback Dane Evans has eclipsed 320 pass yards in every game and looks like a good bet to perform up to his top-ten salary.
The duo of Zack Langer and D’Angelo Brewer are the team’s top rushers. Langer has led the backfield in carries in every game, but has been outgained twice by Brewer. It’s tough to project how the situation will shake out this week.
Jon Moore is a contributor at PFF Fantasy, RotoViz and TheCFX. Continue this conversation with him on Twitter @TheCFX.