Mike Williams – Fantasy Football Redraft Rebate

| 4 years ago
Mike Williams

Mike Williams – Fantasy Football Redraft Rebate

Will Mike A. Williams only ever be a consistent NFL pass catcher? Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver’s game take that next step escalating him to elite possession receiver status? Is Mike Williams being held back by an nonsustaining offense? Better yet is Williams being held back by teammate and Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman? Regardless of the answer to the myriad of questions surrounding the former Syracuse wide out, no inquiries can be made into his consistency since arriving into the NFL.

The chart below compares Williams most successful season while at Syracuse with his statistical output since arriving to the NFL in 2009. As you can see during his 2007 season at Syracuse the target numbers were unavailable for Williams. It is also worth noting that Williams did not play a snap in 2008 due to academics and in 2009 had 49 catches for 746 yards and six touchdowns in only seven games before quitting the team.

Targ Rec Yards TDs
Syracuse 2007  No Data 60 837 10
2010 122 65 964 11
2011 119 65 771 3
2012 120 63 996 9

We seen a drop during Williams’ second season in the NFL which can be the case for wide receivers that are successful during inaugural seasons in the NFL. The drop-off, however, during Mike Williams’ sophomore season was unrelated to target and reception numbers. As you can see both those numbers remained balanced to the other three seasons. This is likely explained by not only a drop in YAC, average yards per receptions and Williams’ average depth of target (aDOT) but also Tampa Bay, quarterback, Josh Freeman’s drop in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

Adjusted yards gained per pass attempt tends or AY/A is relative to the distance passes travel in the air. If you can visualize short passes yielding smaller gains by wide receiver Mike Williams. In 2010 the Buccaneers also failed to have any receiver besides Williams targeted over 40 times yet in 2011 finished with three other pass catchers, other than Williams, who were targeted over 49 times. One amazing aspect from 2012 is that Williams managed to hold steady with receiving numbers despite the addition of free agent wide out Vincent Jackson and his 137 targets. All the same Williams still received 21.2% of the passing offense in 2012, 20.2% in 2011 and 24.6% in 2010.22.5% of the teams targets.

For what it’s worth 37.3% of the pass targets thrown Mike Williams way were 15+ yards and as cohort Shawn Siegele pointed out when breaking down Mike Williams dynasty value, the younger of the two bigs actually outscored teammate Jackson in both PPO and PPSnap in the final 10 weeks of last season. Another tantalizing tidbit, regarding the Williams/Jackson comparison dating back to the last 4 weeks of last season, is that Williams led the team with 31.8% of the Buc’s red zone targets. Vincent Jackson’s red zone target percentage dwarfed that of Willliams’ by 9.1%. Mike Williams  wrapped up the last quarter of 2012 with 5 red zone targets inside the 10 yard line to Jackson’s single target.

Targ Rec Yds TD Pts PPSnap PPO
Mike A. Williams 87 44 628 6 142.8 0.26 0.38
Vincent Jackson 83 45 798 3 142.8 0.23 0.36

In 2010, during Williams’ rookie season Tampa Bay threw the ball offense 53.4%, an increase to 62.9% in 2011, and then dipped a bit to 57.6% in 2012. With the emergence of running back Doug Martin and what should be a staunch Buccaneers defense the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should yet again see an increase in plays executed on the offensive side of the ball. The Buc’s have increased number of offensive plays in each of the last three seasons and 2014 should see an increase as well providing offensive players like Mike Williams with even more of an opportunity to achieve statistical success.

Last season Williams finished 55th overall in PPR scoring formats yet his ADP leading into last season was middle of the 10th round. In hind sight Williams 55th overall finish in 2012 was deserving of a mid 4th round pick providing great value. On average over the last three Williams has finished 67th overall in PPR formats among all positions. Fast forward to 2013 and Mike Williams’ current ADP, in redraft formats presents, an absolute steal. Currently being drafted 98th on average in PPR mock drafts the option to select middle fifth round production in the 8th round may not be sexy but definitely displays fantasy football veteran savvy.

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