JVM: Seattle Seahawks
They were all Super Bowl champions but which Seahawks were over-valued and which under-valued? Nathan Jahnke takes a look.
JVM: Seattle Seahawks
In this series of pieces, Pro Football Focus is hammering into the value of players. To us it’s a “Jahnke Value Model” number, telling you what players were worth (by our grading) in 2013. You can read about the work we’ve done to create it HERE, but in short:
• It’s solely about what a player did on the field in 2013
• Players are grouped by positions so their play essentially earns them a portion of the positional salary pool
• It’s all about cap hits (these values are approximate)
Here are 2013′s most undervalued and overvalued Seattle Seahawks:
(* Denotes player missed significant portion of time through injury)
1. Russell Wilson, Quarterback
It isn’t all that surprising that the most undervalued player in the league is on the Super Bowl champion team. While Wilson hasn’t been as impressive as the top quarterbacks in the league, when you’re in the second tier of quarterbacks you are worth a lot of money. Last year Wilson was the most accurate deep passer for those with at least 40 deep passing attempts. He had an Accuracy Percentage of 48.3% when throwing deep. His cap number is only increasing by a little over $100k for 2014, so he will have a chance to repeat as the most undervalued player in the league next year.
2013 Cap Hit: $700k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $15.5m
Value Differential: +$14.8m
2. Richard Sherman, Cornerback
In 2013 Sherman showed a consistency that is hard to find at cornerback. In 12 of his 19 games he allowed 20 receiving yards or fewer, and in 18 of his 19 games it was 50 yards or fewer. Had it not been for a 73 yard reception by T.Y. Hilton he would have never allowed more than 50 yards in a game. While there are a number of Seahawks in need of a pay day over these next few years, Sherman is high on that list.
2013 Cap Hit: $600k
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $8.1m
Value Differential: +$7.5m
3. Michael Bennett, Defensive Linemen
A year ago Bennett signed a one-year ‘prove it’ deal, and he proved that he was worth twice as much as he got paid. He showed he can both stop the run and rush the passer, and do it from both the defensive end and defensive tackle position. He had at least one pressure in every game, and three or more pressures in 17-of-19 games. Unlike plenty of other undervalued players in the league, Bennett will not need to wait long for his pay day.
2013 Cap Hit: $4.8m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $10.5m
Value Differential: +$5.7m
4. Byron Maxwell, CB – Cap: $600k, JVM: $5.4m, Value Differential: +$4.8m
5. Golden Tate, WR– Cap: $900k, JVM: $5.2m, Value Differential: +$4.3m
6. Doug Baldwin, WR – Cap: $600k, JVM: $4.8m, Value Differential: +$4.3m
7. Tony McDaniel, DT – Cap: $600k, JVM: $4.3m, Value Differential: +$3.7m
8. Malcolm Smith, LB – Cap: $600k, JVM: $4.1m, Value Differential: +$3.5m
9. Brandon Mebane, DT – Cap: $5.2m, JVM: $8.5m, Value Differential: +$3.3m
10. K.J. Wright, LB – Cap: $700k, JVM: $3.6m, Value Differential: +$2.9m
1. Sidney Rice, Wide Receiver*
On one hand, Rice was injured in Week 8 and missed just over half of the season which certainly hurt his performance in the Jahnke Value Model. On the other hand he was averaging fewer than two catches per game, and you would expect a receiver making nearly $10.0m per year to catch many more passes than that. The Seahawks have already released Rice, so he will not top this list for Seattle next year.
2013 Cap Hit: $9.7m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.1m
Value Differential: -$8.6m
2. Chris Clemons, Defensive End
Clemons had a strong start to the season with four sacks and five hits in his first five games. However over the rest of the regular season he was held to just one sack and three hits. It averaged out to him being an average pass rusher while performing below average against the run. If he plays anywhere as well as he did during the Super Bowl during the 2014 season, then his Jahnke Value Model figure will be much higher.
2013 Cap Hit: $8.2m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.4m
Value Differential: -$6.8m
3. Russell Okung, Left Tackle*
Similar to Rice, Okung’s value was hurt a lot due to missing over half of the season. It certainly didn’t help that the pass rushers he faced included Greg Hardy, Jared Allen, Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn. Luckily he showed against the Giants and Cardinals that he can still put up a dominating performance. In the future the Seahawks can get a better value if Okung remains healthy, but looking just at 2013 the Seahawks didn’t get their money’s worth.
2013 Cap Hit: $9.5m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $2.8m
Value Differential: -$6.7m
4. Zach Miller, TE – Cap: $11.0m, JVM: $4.5m, Value Differential: -$6.5m
5. Red Bryant, DE– Cap: $7.6m, JVM: $2.5m, Value Differential: $-5.1m
6. Percy Harvin, WR* – Cap: $4.9m, JVM: $300k, Value Differential: -$4.6m
7. Max Unger, C – Cap: $6.0m, JVM: $2.3m, Value Differential: -$3.7m
8. Breno Giacomini, RT – Cap: $4.8m, JVM: $1.7m, Value Differential: -$3.1m
9. Paul McQuistan, OL – Cap: $3.4m, JVM: $800k, Value Differential: -$2.6m
10. James Carpenter, LG – Cap: $2.1m, JVM: $500k, Value Differential: -$1.5m
Summary – Team Value Differential: +$27.5m
The Seahawks were a very interesting team with a total of 23 different players that were undervalued by at least $1.0m which is incredible considering some teams had fewer than ten. They were also unique in that their overvalued players were limited to offensive linemen, defensive ends and injured wide receivers. How the Seahawks handle both their undervalued and overvalued players going forward will be overly discussed in the coming years as the Seahawks attempt to make a dynasty.
Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke