Fumbles make Bucs defense worth start

Ryan Rauch explains why one of the most surprising defenses this season is worth a start in all fantasy formats this week.

| 12 months ago
(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Fumbles make Bucs defense worth start

A good way to find DST streamers is to evaluate trends over the course of a season. But more importantly, smaller blocks show how a team is improving or declining in terms of yards allowed, turnovers, and points allowed. We can use these trends to project which teams might be able to put up fantasy points and help you win in your DFS games, despite non-optimal matchups.

Over the last four weeks, five of the six top defenses in terms of fantasy points per game have held opponents to less than 100 yards rushing per game. Only eight of the remaining 26 teams were able to hold opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. In those same four weeks, four of those six highest-scoring defenses have averaged more than two turnovers per game. Of the remaining 26 teams, only four were able to force as many turnovers.

Some of these stats might seem obvious, but good defenses don’t always have the biggest-named players. They can, however, stop the run and force turnovers. Another trend we have picked up on recently is points scored for home teams versus for away teams. Last week, seven of the top 12 scoring defenses played at home, and one, the Chiefs, played on a neutral field in London. The four away teams that had high-scoring defenses averaged 2.75 turnovers.

So this week, we are putting these stats together to come up with some streamers that should perform well given recent trends. There is only one team in the NFL over the last four weeks that has forced more than two turnovers per game, allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing, and is playing at home this week. They are our top DST streamer this week, and are owned in only 5.2 percent of ESPN leagues.

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  • Chuck

    So much for the sleeping Browns scoring fantasy points on DEF. Cmon man!