Fantasy: Pass Distribution Comparison - Rookies vs. Veterans

For whatever reason, the theory that rookie quarterbacks throw to the tight end more often than veterans has popped up quite often recently. Most of the theorizing seems to surround folks trying to figure out what kind of impact Tennessee’s Jake Locker will have on Jared Cook. The same kind of thinking could also be applied in Carolina (Cam Newton – Jeremy Shockey), Minnesota (Christian Ponder – Visanthe Shiancoe), and Cincinnati (Andy Dalton – Jermaine Gresham).

Nonetheless, the theorizing got me thinking: do rookies really favor other positions more than veterans? Taking it a step further, do rookies throw down field less often than veterans? Also, how much less effective are rookies than veterans, if at all?

To answer these questions, I studied all the QB-relevant data PFF has to offer and went to work.

Sample Size

My sample size for this exercise was simple: Any rookie quarterback who attempted a pass during the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons. This left me with 22 quarterbacks and 3,355 aimed passes (= Pass Attempts – Throw Aways – Batted Balls – Hits – Spikes), which makes for a solid sample.

Pass Location by Distance

I started off by taking a look at the location of passes by distance. We split the throws into 4 zones: 20+ yards, 10-19 yards, 0-9 yards, and behind the line of scrimmage.

Our first chart shows us our sample of quarterbacks, including their total rookie season stats and zone-by-zone breakdown.  Although you’re more than welcome to scan over and compare the rookies, I’ll be focusing on the two lines at the bottom: Rookie Total and Veteran Total.

Interestingly, our findings tell us that the pass locations of rookie quarterbacks are just about the same as the locations of passes by veterans. The only difference we really see is that veterans trust the 20+ yard pass a little bit more, while rookies focus more on the 0-9 yard zone. There is nothing here that tells us to expect shorter (or longer) pass attempts by a rookie.

Pass Effectiveness by Distance

While we’re at it, we might as well check in and see how much less effective rookie quarterbacks are than veterans in each zone.

On passes of longer than 10 yards, we see that rookies complete 3-4% fewer of their attempts than veterans. Yards-Per-Completion is basically a wash, but veterans show a pretty strong advantage in both the touchdown and interception department.

The area where veterans are most superior to rookies is completion percentage on 0-9 yard passes. The difference is a whopping 6.3%. Veterans also hold a strong edge in TD rate, but YPC and INT% are basically a wash.

On throws behind the line of scrimmage, the two groups are basically even. Veterans still manage a slight edge in all 4 categories, but it’s safe to say that rookies can manage short passes behind the line just as well as veterans.

Finally, we have some totals. Not surprisingly, veterans prove to be more effective across the board. This is something to consider when evaluating rookie starters.

Pass Location by Position

Key: Backer (Any player lined up in the backfield). Wide (Any player lined up out wide, not including the slot). Slot (Only players lined up in the slot). iL TE (Players lined up on the line. This usually will only include tight ends).

Next, we bring back our sample of rookie quarterbacks to see which positions they throw to the most/least often. Because some teams line their tight end and/or tailback out wide more often than others, I split the targets into 2 categories. The first group of four splits them up by the location the player lined up, completely ignoring the player’s “default” position. The second group of four ignores where the player lined up and focuses only on that player’s regular position. For example, if Reggie Bush, a halfback, were to lineup in the slot, he’d fall under ‘slot’ in group 1, but ‘HB’ in group 2.

Now that you understand what I did here and why I did it, we can focus on the data. Again, take a look at the 2 rows at the bottom: ‘Rookies’ and ‘Veterans’. Based on our discoveries from earlier, it shouldn’t be shocking to see that the two rows are about the same. In group one, we see that veterans actually favor the in-line tight end slightly more than rookies, but only by a few tenths of a percent.

The results are similar in group 2. Rookies lean heavier on the fullback and wide receiver, while veterans focus more on the tailback and tight end positions.

Conclusion

Similar to veteran quarterbacks, the player-by-player splits we saw here today were all over the place. Once you add them up, however, we see a significant amount of consistency. When evaluating the impact a rookie quarterback will have on an offense, do not expect a change in target distribution and location. Instead, you should simply be expecting less production from the pass game across the board. Downgrade each pass catcher accordingly.