Fantasy: Kenny Britt – Lottery Ticket

| 6 years ago

Fantasy: Kenny Britt – Lottery Ticket

With a Draftmaster ADP of 66, Kenny Britt enters 2011 as one of the riskiest players being selected in the first six rounds. The troubled young Titan faces multiple types of legal jeopardy and a potential NFL suspension. If he survives all of that, he still plays for Tennessee. Throwing to Britt will either be Jake Locker, a rookie QB who could be charitably described as something less than dominant in college, or the veritable player to be signed later.

That being the case, why on earth is Britt still being taken as the 26th WR off the board?

Incredible Reward.

Although he played a meager 480 snaps last season, Britt finished 6th among wide receivers in the PFF pass ratings. That probably comes as a shock since Britt is widely considered to be an undisciplined deep threat. Jeff Fisher even seemed reluctant to put him on the field to start 2010.

Despite his coach’s reservations, Kenny Britt was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL last season. He was targeted on just under 14% of his snaps, which is right on the average for #1 wide receivers. For every snap he played, he averaged 1.61 receiving yards. In the entire NFL, only Brandon Lloyd put up a better number (1.68). For every target that came his direction, he averaged 11.7 yards. While no one could touch Mike Wallace in this category (13.5 yards/target), Britt edged DeSean Jackson for second place.

Britt’s numbers look even more impressive when viewed in the proper context. He blew away the top 10 PPR receivers of 2010 in several important categories, including averaging two yards per target more than this elite group.

TA/Snap Yds/TA Yds/Snap % Ct
Kenny Britt 13.8% 11.7 1.61 63.6
Top 10 PPR WRS 2010
14.6% 9.3 1.33 61.3

Britt’s numbers aren’t completely sustainable. For one thing, 480 snaps is not a large sample. For another, extreme yards per target numbers are like high TD rates. They tend to come back to earth the following year. Twelve receivers reached the 10 yards per target threshold in 2009 and played significant snaps again this past year. Of those receivers, only four duplicated the feat in 2010.

One of those four was Kenny Britt.

Over the first 1000-plus snaps of his career, Britt has averaged over 17.5 yards per reception and caught more than 60% of the balls thrown his direction. The Titans are not likely to get quality QB play in 2011, but they didn’t get that much from the position in 2010. If you combine the PFF pass ratings for Vince Young and Kerry Collins last year, they would slot in as the 22nd ranked QB.

It’s a very real question whether Britt will find enough snaps in 2011 to help your fantasy squad, but when he’s on the field, almost no one matches his fantasy potential.

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