Get Lynch back into Yahoo DFS lineups
Mike Tagliere gives you a Week 18 tournament lineup for Yahoo DFS, and explains why you'll want to trust Marshawn Lynch in his first game back.
Get Lynch back into Yahoo DFS lineups
If you’ve been here before, you would expect somewhat of a different lineup in this article than the one that you are about to read.
In this article, we are going to be going through a tournament lineup for Yahoo DFS in Week 18 (or as some call it, wild card weekend).
There are just four games, so the picking are slim. There are likely to be a ton of lineups with the same exact players on them, which is why you need to go out on a limb if you’d like to win some money this week.
Ben Roethlisberger has been awful on the road, and he is going to be playing against the Bengals, a team that didn’t allow a single quarterback to score more than 17 fantasy points against them while at home. You can be assured that Roethlisberger will still be over 20 percent owned.
Is there reason for hope, or do you fade away from the Steelers offense all together? Let’s take a look at the lineup we will be using in Yahoo DFS this week.
Aaron Rodgers QB, Packers ($33)
Here is a guy that would typically be on everybody’s roster in a week like this, but most are shying away due to his struggles over the last three weeks.
Let’s not forget that while he has thrown just three touchdowns over the last three weeks, Rodgers isn’t chopped liver and has 28 touchdowns on the year compared to just eight interceptions. Prior to this recent skid, he had thrown 13 touchdowns in his previous six games.
The Redskins are also the best matchup that he could’ve asked for, seeing as they have allowed 30 passing scores on the year, while intercepting just 11 passes. In 11 of their final 14 games, they allowed multiple touchdowns as well.
Add in the fact that Kellen Moore, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler combined for 1,130 yards against them with six touchdowns over the last month, and you have yourself a high ceiling option with Rodgers.
Marshawn Lynch RB, Seahawks ($28)
He’s back and his legs are arguably as fresh as they have been at this point in a season. Add in the fact that the Seahawks offensive line has come together over the second half of the season, and it’s a recipe for success.
Playing against the Vikings in Minnesota is actually a positive for Lynch, as the temps are rumored to be in the area of 20-below zero with the wind chill (20-30 MPH winds). When it’s that cold and windy out, teams tend to run the ball a lot more.
The Vikings played well over the first half of the season against running backs while allowing just two teams in the first eight weeks to top 88 rushing yards. Injuries took their toll, and the Vikings allowed seven teams to total more than 91 yards on the ground for the remainder of the season.
With Russell Wilson keeping defenses honest, Lynch may not be viewed as a big threat coming off injury. That is exactly what we want to hear.
Giovani Bernard RB, Bengals ($16)
It seems like a common trend amongst the playoff teams – they all stop the run, extremely well. So when looking for a back to pair with Lynch, the best one that comes to mind as a receiving back would be Bernard.
While Bernard has struggled down the stretch, the reason to like him a little bit more is due to ownership being down, and the fact that Jeremy Hill is likely to get stuffed by a stiff Steelers run defense that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.
Bernard played against them back in Week 14 where he scored 8.2 points in Yahoo DFS format (0.5 PPR), but if you recall, that was the game where Dalton was injured and McCarron took over. He didn’t seem to check down as much as Dalton did.
In tournaments, he is about as high risk as they get. But in a game where they will struggle to run, Bernard may need to be leaned on in the passing game.
Deandre Hopkins WR, Texans ($36)
This slot came down to Hopkins or Antonio Brown, but you should lean Hopkins simply due to a lower ownership rate. It’s nearly impossible to fit both in a lineup, unless you skimp everywhere else.
The matchup for Hopkins couldn’t get much better than it does in the first round of the playoffs, when he gets to line up against the Chiefs cornerbacks. While Sean Smith has graded out well, Marcus Peters has been a little below average.
Hopkins plays both outside positions almost evenly, so he should be able to find a way to do some damage against the secondary that allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, at 23.3 points per game in standard leagues.
The two outside cornerbacks for the Chiefs allowed a combined 13 touchdowns in coverage this year (Smith 5, Peters 8), the third most of any tandem. Hopkins will be very involved considering the Chiefs stuff the run so well.
Davante Adams WR, Packers ($10)
Although Adams has been an extreme disappointment this year, the Packers continue to throw him the ball. He has seen 88 targets through the 13 games that he has played, which amounts to nearly seven per game.
We have Aaron Rodgers heading up this lineup and if we’re counting on a big game out of him, why not snag the receiver that nobody wants to own in any league, let alone DFS.
Adams has played over 70 percent of the snaps in all of his games (where he didn’t get hurt), so there is no reason to think that he won’t against a Redskins secondary that allowed at least one wide receiver touchdown in 14 of their 16 games, including multiple wide receiver scores in nine of them.
Adams has the backing of his coaches and his quarterback, so here is our hail mary. If Adams hits, he could be the reason you win a tournament.
DeSean Jackson WR, Redskins ($21)
Tying into the Rodgers/Adams combo comes Jackson. If the Packers do what they are capable on offense, there will be plenty of Kirk Cousins passes to go around. And when you have Jackson, one play can make him worth his price tag.
The Packers secondary has been a point of attack recently, as they had allowed a combined 59 fantasy points to the wide receivers from the Raiders and Cardinals in Weeks 15 and 16, before playing the pitiful Vikings group.
There have been three of the nine games where Jackson has played in which he has gotten more than six targets. In those three games, he has averaged 5.7 receptions, 106.7 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns.
This figures to be one of the higher scoring games on the docket this weekend, and when playing in a tournament with this small of games, you need to go all in.
Jordan Reed TE, Redskins ($25)
There hasn’t been a hotter tight end in the NFL than Reed over the last month and a half. Going back to Week 12, Reed has managed to rack up 84 or more yards in four of six games, and has now scored 10 touchdowns in his last 10 games.
The Packers are no strangers to giving up yardage to tight ends either, as they have allowed four opponents to total 80 yards through the air, including three of them to reach 105 or more yards.
With Sam Shields seemingly not 100 percent, the Packers will likely be shading a safety towards DeSean Jackson, which should free things up for the red-hot Reed underneath.
Tyler Lockett WR, Seahawks ($14)
Trying to stay away from the passing game in Minnesota wasn’t that hard, considering the options that are available, and the weather conditions. But Lockett at $14 fit perfectly into the lineup.
While he was on a hot streak towards the end of the season, he cooled off a bit over the final two games. He is the wildcard in your lineup, simply because of his natural game breaking ability.
With the blistering cold and high winds, it will be interesting to see how the Vikings handle him on special teams as well.
With eight total touchdowns this year on just 67 targets, Lockett is the high-upside option that costs barely anything.
Seahawks D/ST ($16)
The Chiefs defense is likely going to be owned in over half of the field, so even though they fit into our price slot, you are best suited to avoid them. The Seahawks have been dominant on defense once again, and Teddy Bridgewater has been awful in good weather, let alone what it will be like in Minnesota this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that Adrian Peterson has rediscovered his fumbling issues.
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter @MikeTagliereNFL where I regularly talk with followers. Best of luck in your DFS matchups!