The top contrarian plays for Week 2 in DFS
The bigger the risk, the bigger the reward. As Scott Barrett notes, that advice applies to your DFS tournaments as well.
The top contrarian plays for Week 2 in DFS
“Audaces fortuna iuvat” — Virgil
Fortune favors the bold.
I was grossly underqualified for one of the last jobs I applied for. I really wanted it, so I spent hours crafting my cover letter in such a way that I was sure it would stand out from a pile of what I expected to be hundreds of applications. It was enough to earn me an interview, but I still knew I was such a longshot I would really have to impress in order to win the job.
Prior to the interview, I had spent about a week or so e-mailing back and forth with the person who would be heading the interview (my potential future boss). I quickly discovered he had a very sharp sense of humor. I had hoped to use this to my advantage during the interviewing process.
On the date of the actual interview, I showed up in a suit, 30 minutes early, with copies of my resume in hand. We first went over the job, why I think I’m qualified, and why he should hire me over everyone vastly more qualified. Near the end of my pitch, I felt like I had somewhat won him over.
Eventually it became their turn to sort of sell me on their company. They talked about things like their history as a company and their core company values. Eventually they began discussing some of the other perks. “You get three weeks’ worth of vacation days and one week of sick days. We’re very progressive with paternity leave. I don’t know if you’re married or have a girlfriend, but we offer four months paid leave if you’re having a baby.”
“Whoa, four months? That’s a lot.” I said.
“Is there a limit to it?” I continued, half-jokingly. “If I got three women pregnant per year, every year, could I conceivably never work another day for this company while still getting paid?”
It kind of just slipped out. After my brain had registered what I had just said, I was mortified. It was probably the least professional thing I could have said.
Still, my interviewer laughed and said that he’d have to look further into that loophole. I walked out of that interview very dejected, and didn’t expect to receive a phone call back.
Two weeks later, my phone rang and I was offered the position. His reasoning being, “Yeah, you know. You just really stood out. You were funny, seem like a guy I could have a beer with. That’s important in an office environment where you’ll be working with someone very closely for 45 hours per week.”
I was shocked. It was mostly accidental, but, this time, my boldness really paid off.
In DFS tournaments, you can’t be afraid of going against the crowd; you have to be bold if you want to win a big payout.
Hopefully your boldness paid off for you last week, and likely so if you listened to my quarterback recommendations. (You can find last week’s article here.) Andrew Luck was only four percent owned in the DraftKings Sunday $5 Million GPP. He finished as the top scoring fantasy quarterback. Carson Wentz was only 1 percent owned and outscored the much higher-owned Dak Prescott (13 percent), as we had predicted.
Based on Fantasy Aces’ $3 Quick Slant Thursday-Monday GPP, we can expect this week’s chalk to be: Eli Manning, DeAngelo Williams, C.J. Anderson and Odell Beckham Jr. (Notes: Ownership percentages are from that Fantasy Aces tournament. If you’re unfamiliar with this strategy/this article, you can check out the primer I wrote here.)
Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns (11 percent)
Last season, across all seven games McCown played at least 50 percent of the snaps, he averaged 19.99 fantasy points per game. McCown is minimum priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Last season, the Ravens allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The narrative coming into this season was that Hue Jackson would want to have a run-heavy offense, but only seven teams had fewer run plays last week. The Browns also surprisingly had the fastest offensive pace of any team. On Thursday, McCown was 11 percent owned on FantasyAces, but that is a site where you roster two quarterbacks each week. I think McCown goes far less owned on the other sites this weekend. Paying down for McCown can help you separate yourself from all of the Manning, Newton, Brees lineups.