Week 16 DFS fades and players to avoid

Who should you steer clear of in DFS this week? Mike Tagliere has some suggestions.

| 5 months ago
Jimmy Graham

(Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Week 16 DFS fades and players to avoid


As the weeks have gone on, you’ve probably noticed that the fades and the locks of the week have become more and more accurate, now that we have much more data to go over in order to support our cases. We’re now at the point where there isn’t anything left to wait on. This is the time where we should be better than ever.

As we usually do, you’ll be getting two quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, and one tight end to fade in your DFS lineups. Does this mean that you should have no exposure to these players? Well no, not necessarily — I’m not giving you players like Kamar Aiken or Dwayne Washington. These are players who you should have very little exposure to in tournaments, and most likely none in cash games. Whether it be their price eliminating all possible equity (like David Johnson last week, who cost $10,100, and just barely lived up to his cost with 26.8 PPR points) or a matchup with a stingy defense or cornerback, these are the players to avoid if at all possible in Week 16. And as usual, I’ll give you logical explanations for each player.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (at Bears)

A lot of people are going to see Cousins here and think, “Obviously, the guy was awful on Monday night against the Panthers.” But I’d argue that Cousins would have been a caution in Week 16 even before his implosion last week. While last week definitely doesn’t help his cause, his matchup against the Bears is simply not a good one. The Bears defense has played much better at home this season, allowing just 19.0 points per game while allowing 26.7 points per game on the road, over a touchdown more. And the opposing quarterback has felt the majority of that blow, as they have averaged just 11.7 fantasy points in Chicago. The best game that they allowed at home this season was to Marcus Mariota in Week 12, who posted 223 passing yards with two touchdowns. He also added another 46 yards rushing, which makes sense because the Bears were missing their best linebacker that game, Jerrell Freeman, who will return from his suspension this week. Before being suspended he was graded as the No. 3 linebacker in all of football. Cousins is also likely to be without Jordan Reed, who is not only hurt, but also facing a potential suspension for punching Kurt Coleman (with his helmet on). There have been 44 games in which Kirk Cousins has thrown at least 10 passes, and the chart below shows his splits with/without Reed in the lineup.

  Games YPA Yards TD/gm INT/gm FPts
With Reed 27 8.5 287.7 1.78 0.70 23.3
Without Reed 17 7.5 222.7 1.29 1.24 16.3

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