Going into 2011, expectations were similar to previous seasons. In a typical league, savvy owners would have leaned toward drafting running backs, early, because that is where the greatest value had been. However, it did not take long to discover that 2011 was an atypical season.
Please check out part 1 for my explanation of VBD, my league settings and rules used, and the VBD table for 2010. Here is the VBD table for 2011:
| Position | Player | Standard Points | PPR Points | Standard VBD | PPR VBD | Standard Price | PPR Price |
| RB | Ray Rice | 296.8 | 372.8 | 195.9 | 252.9 | $52 | $51 |
| WR | Calvin Johnson | 264.5 | 360.5 | 189.8 | 250.8 | $50 | $50 |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | 397.42 | 397.42 | 182.22 | 182.22 | $48 | $36 |
| RB | LeSean McCoy | 282.4 | 330.4 | 181.5 | 210.5 | $48 | $42 |
| QB | Drew Brees | 394.2 | 394.2 | 179 | 179 | $47 | $36 |
| RB | Maurice Jones-Drew | 264 | 307 | 163.1 | 187.1 | $43 | $37 |
| RB | Arian Foster | 256.7 | 309.7 | 155.8 | 189.8 | $41 | $38 |
| QB | Cam Newton | 370.64 | 370.64 | 155.44 | 155.44 | $41 | $31 |
| QB | Tom Brady | 370.46 | 370.46 | 155.26 | 155.26 | $41 | $31 |
| WR | Jordy Nelson | 216.3 | 284.3 | 141.6 | 174.6 | $37 | $35 |
| TE | Rob Gronkowski | 234.7 | 324.7 | 137.1 | 168.1 | $36 | $34 |
| WR | Wes Welker | 211.3 | 333.3 | 136.6 | 223.6 | $36 | $45 |
| WR | Victor Cruz | 207.6 | 289.6 | 132.9 | 179.9 | $35 | $36 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | 346 | 346 | 130.8 | 130.8 | $34 | $26 |
| RB | Marshawn Lynch | 219.6 | 247.6 | 118.7 | 127.7 | $31 | $26 |
| RB | Michael Turner | 218 | 235 | 117.1 | 115.1 | $31 | $23 |
| WR | Larry Fitzgerald | 189.1 | 269.1 | 114.4 | 159.4 | $30 | $32 |
| WR | Steve L. Smith | 181.4 | 260.4 | 106.7 | 150.7 | $28 | $30 |
| WR | Roddy White | 177.6 | 277.6 | 102.9 | 167.9 | $27 | $34 |
| TE | Jimmy Graham | 197 | 296 | 99.4 | 139.4 | $26 | $28 |
| WR | Mike Wallace | 167.3 | 239.3 | 92.6 | 129.6 | $24 | $26 |
| WR | Vincent Jackson | 164.6 | 224.6 | 89.9 | 114.9 | $24 | $23 |
| RB | Ryan Mathews | 190.6 | 240.6 | 89.7 | 120.7 | $24 | $24 |
| RB | Frank Gore | 190.2 | 220.2 | 89.3 | 100.3 | $23 | $20 |
| WR | Marques Colston | 162.3 | 242.3 | 87.6 | 132.6 | $23 | $27 |
| RB | Adrian L. Peterson | 188.1 | 206.1 | 87.2 | 86.2 | $23 | $17 |
| WR | Hakeem Nicks | 161.2 | 237.2 | 86.5 | 127.5 | $23 | $25 |
| RB | Darren Sproles | 186.7 | 272.7 | 85.8 | 152.8 | $23 | $31 |
| WR | Brandon Marshall | 158.7 | 240.7 | 84 | 131 | $22 | $26 |
| RB | Steven Jackson | 183.9 | 225.9 | 83 | 106 | $22 | $21 |
| RB | Reggie Bush | 181.2 | 224.2 | 80.3 | 104.3 | $21 | $21 |
| WR | Laurent Robinson | 151.8 | 205.8 | 77.1 | 96.1 | $20 | $19 |
| RB | Michael Bush | 176.1 | 211.1 | 75.2 | 91.2 | $20 | $18 |
| WR | Greg Jennings | 148.9 | 215.9 | 74.2 | 106.2 | $20 | $21 |
| QB | Eli Manning | 288.82 | 288.82 | 73.62 | 73.62 | $19 | $15 |
| WR | A.J. Green | 147.7 | 212.7 | 73 | 103 | $19 | $21 |
| RB | Fred Jackson | 173.6 | 212.6 | 72.7 | 92.7 | $19 | $19 |
| WR | Dez Bryant | 146.8 | 209.8 | 72.1 | 100.1 | $19 | $20 |
| RB | Matt Forte | 172.7 | 224.7 | 71.8 | 104.8 | $19 | $21 |
| WR | Dwayne Bowe | 145.9 | 226.9 | 71.2 | 117.2 | $19 | $23 |
| RB | Chris D. Johnson | 171.1 | 228.1 | 70.2 | 108.2 | $18 | $22 |
| WR | Nate Washington | 144.3 | 218.3 | 69.6 | 108.6 | $18 | $22 |
| RB | Beanie Wells | 170.1 | 180.1 | 69.2 | 60.2 | $18 | $12 |
| WR | Julio Jones | 143.9 | 197.9 | 69.2 | 88.2 | $18 | $18 |
| WR | Steve Johnson | 142.4 | 218.4 | 67.7 | 108.7 | $18 | $22 |
| QB | Tony Romo | 282.72 | 282.72 | 67.52 | 67.52 | $18 | $13 |
| QB | Matt Ryan | 279.48 | 279.48 | 64.28 | 64.28 | $17 | $13 |
| RB | Rashard Mendenhall | 162.2 | 180.2 | 61.3 | 60.3 | $16 | $12 |
| WR | Percy Harvin | 133.5 | 220.5 | 58.8 | 110.8 | $15 | $22 |
| RB | Ahmad Bradshaw | 158.6 | 192.6 | 57.7 | 72.7 | $15 | $15 |
| WR | Pierre Garcon | 130.7 | 200.7 | 56 | 91 | $15 | $18 |
| RB | Willis McGahee | 155.4 | 167.4 | 54.5 | 47.5 | $14 | $9 |
| RB | Shonn Greene | 152.8 | 169.8 | 51.9 | 49.9 | $14 | $10 |
| WR | Torrey Smith | 126.1 | 176.1 | 51.4 | 66.4 | $14 | $13 |
| RB | Cedric Benson | 151.8 | 166.8 | 50.9 | 46.9 | $13 | $9 |
| RB | Mike Tolbert | 151.6 | 205.6 | 50.7 | 85.7 | $13 | $17 |
| WR | Jabar Gaffney | 124.7 | 192.7 | 50 | 83 | $13 | $17 |
| QB | Philip Rivers | 264.56 | 264.56 | 49.36 | 49.36 | $13 | $10 |
| WR | Antonio Brown | 122.8 | 191.8 | 48.1 | 82.1 | $13 | $16 |
| RB | Jonathan Stewart | 148.8 | 195.8 | 47.9 | 75.9 | $13 | $15 |
| RB | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 148.6 | 157.6 | 47.7 | 37.7 | $13 | $8 |
| WR | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 121.5 | 185.5 | 46.8 | 75.8 | $12 | $15 |
| WR | DeSean Jackson | 120.1 | 178.1 | 45.4 | 68.4 | $12 | $14 |
| WR | Reggie Wayne | 120 | 195 | 45.3 | 85.3 | $12 | $17 |
| WR | Jeremy Maclin | 115.9 | 178.9 | 41.2 | 69.2 | $11 | $14 |
| WR | Malcom Floyd | 115.6 | 158.6 | 40.9 | 48.9 | $11 | $10 |
| RB | DeAngelo Williams | 140 | 156 | 39.1 | 36.1 | $10 | $7 |
| WR | Santonio Holmes | 113.4 | 164.4 | 38.7 | 54.7 | $10 | $11 |
| QB | Mark Sanchez | 253.26 | 253.26 | 38.06 | 38.06 | $10 | $8 |
| WR | Michael Crabtree | 112 | 185 | 37.3 | 75.3 | $10 | $15 |
| WR | Lance Moore | 110.7 | 162.7 | 36 | 53 | $9 | $11 |
| TE | Aaron Hernandez | 133 | 212 | 35.4 | 55.4 | $9 | $11 |
| WR | Plaxico Burress | 109.2 | 154.2 | 34.5 | 44.5 | $9 | $9 |
| WR | Eric Decker | 109.2 | 153.2 | 34.5 | 43.5 | $9 | $9 |
| RB | Pierre Thomas | 134.7 | 184.7 | 33.8 | 64.8 | $9 | $13 |
| WR | Anquan Boldin | 106.7 | 163.7 | 32 | 54 | $8 | $11 |
| TE | Tony Gonzalez | 129.5 | 209.5 | 31.9 | 52.9 | $8 | $11 |
| WR | James Jones | 105.5 | 143.5 | 30.8 | 33.8 | $8 | $7 |
| WR | Doug Baldwin | 103.2 | 154.2 | 28.5 | 44.5 | $7 | $9 |
| RB | Ben Tate | 128.8 | 141.8 | 27.9 | 21.9 | $7 | $4 |
| TE | Jermichael Finley | 124.7 | 179.7 | 27.1 | 23.1 | $7 | $5 |
| TE | Jason Witten | 124.2 | 203.2 | 26.6 | 46.6 | $7 | $9 |
| QB | Michael Vick | 241.02 | 241.02 | 25.82 | 25.82 | $7 | $5 |
| WR | Deion Branch | 100.2 | 151.2 | 25.5 | 41.5 | $7 | $8 |
| WR | Miles Austin | 99.9 | 142.9 | 25.2 | 33.2 | $7 | $7 |
| WR | Early Doucet | 98.9 | 152.9 | 24.2 | 43.2 | $6 | $9 |
| WR | Brandon Lloyd | 98.3 | 149.3 | 23.6 | 39.6 | $6 | $8 |
| WR | Robert Meachem | 98 | 138 | 23.3 | 28.3 | $6 | $6 |
| RB | LeGarrette Blount | 123.4 | 133.4 | 22.5 | 13.5 | $6 | $3 |
| RB | C.J. Spiller | 123.2 | 162.2 | 22.3 | 42.3 | $6 | $8 |
| TE | Antonio Gates | 119.8 | 183.8 | 22.2 | 27.2 | $6 | $5 |
| WR | Titus Young | 96.7 | 144.7 | 22 | 35 | $6 | $7 |
| WR | Jerome Simpson | 96.5 | 146.5 | 21.8 | 36.8 | $6 | $7 |
| WR | David Nelson | 95.8 | 156.8 | 21.1 | 47.1 | $6 | $9 |
| WR | Mike A. Williams | 95.7 | 160.7 | 21 | 51 | $6 | $10 |
| RB | DeMarco Murray | 120 | 146 | 19.1 | 26.1 | $5 | $5 |
| RB | Roy Helu | 119.9 | 168.9 | 19 | 49 | $5 | $10 |
| WR | Nate Burleson | 93.7 | 166.7 | 19 | 57 | $5 | $11 |
| TE | Vernon Davis | 115.2 | 182.2 | 17.6 | 25.6 | $5 | $5 |
| RB | Brandon Jacobs | 118 | 133 | 17.1 | 13.1 | $4 | $3 |
| WR | Denarius Moore | 91.8 | 124.8 | 17.1 | 15.1 | $4 | $3 |
| WR | Steve Breaston | 90.5 | 151.5 | 15.8 | 41.8 | $4 | $8 |
| WR | Damian Williams | 89.2 | 134.2 | 14.5 | 24.5 | $4 | $5 |
| TE | Dustin Keller | 111.5 | 176.5 | 13.9 | 19.9 | $4 | $4 |
| TE | Brent Celek | 111.1 | 173.1 | 13.5 | 16.5 | $4 | $3 |
| QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 226.86 | 226.86 | 11.66 | 11.66 | $3 | $2 |
| QB | Ben Roethlisberger | 226.08 | 226.08 | 10.88 | 10.88 | $3 | $2 |
| WR | Johnny Knox | 84.9 | 121.9 | 10.2 | 12.2 | $3 | $2 |
| TE | Brandon Pettigrew | 107.7 | 190.7 | 10.1 | 34.1 | $3 | $7 |
| WR | Greg Little | 82.9 | 143.9 | 8.2 | 34.2 | $2 | $7 |
| WR | Santana Moss | 82.4 | 128.4 | 7.7 | 18.7 | $2 | $4 |
| RB | Darren McFadden | 106.8 | 125.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | $2 | $1 |
| WR | Donald Driver | 80.5 | 117.5 | 5.8 | 7.8 | $2 | $2 |
| WR | Brandon LaFell | 79.3 | 115.3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | $1 | $1 |
| WR | Demaryius Thomas | 79.1 | 111.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | $1 | $0 |
| RB | Donald Brown | 103.1 | 119.1 | 2.2 | -0.8 | $1 | $0 |
| WR | Mario Manningham | 76.3 | 115.3 | 1.6 | 5.6 | $0 | $1 |
| WR | Joshua Cribbs | 75.8 | 116.8 | 1.1 | 7.1 | $0 | $1 |
| QB | Josh Freeman | 216.16 | 216.16 | 0.96 | 0.96 | $0 | $0 |
| QB | Alex D. Smith | 215.9 | 215.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | $0 | $0 |
| QB | Joe Flacco | 215.2 | 215.2 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 |
| RB | Ryan Grant | 100.9 | 119.9 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 |
| WR | Dezmon Briscoe | 74.7 | 109.7 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 |
| TE | Fred Davis | 97.6 | 156.6 | 0 | 0 | $0 | $0 |
In 2011, there was a sea change. A running back, Ray Rice, was still the best value, but Aaron Rodgers was 3rd, and there were three more QBs—Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady—in the top 10. In addition, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were worthy of second round selections—at 11 and 20, respectively—as was Matthew Stafford, quarterback number 5.
It is way too early to apply this logic to specific players for 2012 rankings. A player’s fantasy score from 2011 is only a part of his future outlook. However, it is a good way to look at trends in overall scoring. I find it easiest to consume as a side-by-side table, so I included one for the first 4 rounds of the draft. The pick column indicates the draft position in a fantasy draft, and the QB, RB, WR, and TE columns show how many of that type of player should have been drafted by that point. The left set of columns is 2010 and the right set is 2011.
| 2010 | 2011 | ||||||||
| Pick | QB | RB | WR | TE | QB | RB | WR | TE | Round |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 11 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 13 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 14 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| 15 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 16 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| 17 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 18 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | |
| 19 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | |
| 20 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 21 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 | |
| 23 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 2 | |
| 24 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
| 25 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | |
| 26 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 2 | |
| 27 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 2 | |
| 28 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 2 | |
| 29 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 2 | |
| 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 2 | |
| 31 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 4 |
| 32 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 2 | |
| 33 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 2 | |
| 34 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 2 | |
| 35 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 2 | |
| 36 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 2 | |
| 37 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 2 | |
| 38 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 2 | |
| 39 | 5 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 2 | |
| 40 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 2 | |
You’ll notice the early-round increases in QB and TE selections, as I previously mentioned. It is also interesting to note that the increase in QB and TE values has devalued RBs more than WRs. By the beginning of the second round, only 4 RBs and 2 WRs should have been taken, down from 7 and 4 from 2010. By the beginning of the third round, 6 RBs and 8 WRs should have been taken. That is fewer than half of the 13 RBs that should have been taken by that point in 2010 and is actually 1 more WR. Meanwhile, that RB disparity is almost completely accounted for in round 3 and 4 of the draft.
The real question is whether these changes are anomalous or representative of a shift in relative values. I have to say that given some of the NFL rules changes that have made it difficult for defensive players to hit the quarterback and protect the middle of the field, as well as the increasing prevalence of running back committees, I believe this is more the new rule than the exception. When you go on the clock for your first pick in your 2012 fantasy drafts and you want to take Aaron Rodgers, go ahead. It is not as crazy as it once was.
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