Rookie RBs and fantasy relevance

Adam Eastman explains his case study of rookie running backs and why seeking rookie running back exposure is an annual habit of successful fantasy players.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

(AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Rookie RBs and fantasy relevance

There are no sure things in fantasy football. Each player comes with varying levels of uncertainty. Owners that avoid acquiring players with high levels of uncertainty also proportionally decrease their exposure to upside potential. The realization of upside potential directly translates into value. Owners worth their salt are constantly chasing value.

Rookies are an annual influx of players that have no professional sample size to consult when projecting production. Hence, rookies tend to have a greater discrepancy between projection and actual production. Avoid perceiving this volatility negatively. The blessings of the unknown are the nuts and bolts of value.

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Adam Raines-Eastman is the architect of the Fantasy Marketplace™, a multi-dimensional arena that illustrates the ever changing landscape of the entire draft pool.

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  • Tyler Herman

    Have you watched gordon at all this year? Its going to be a commitee in Sd and more than likely going to be Woodhead/Donald Brown by week 7.

    • Adam Eastman

      I wouldn’t put too much stock into preseason performance or usage. Also, considering how poorly donald brown played in 2014, I’d think Brandon Oliver would be the bigger threat to Gordon’s assumed early down work.

  • DT

    It may be too complicated, but it would be interesting to expand the analysis to a Dynasty perspective. You could possibly identify players with multiple elite and/or top 24 seasons for each RB. I think it would be curious to see what the data indicated. I think it is clear that RB#3 looks bad from a Dynasty perspective, too. (What a list!)
    Anyway, very interesting article and analysis. I enjoyed it.

    • Adam Eastman

      thanks DT. I will think about that for a furure piece.