Advanced Targets – Week 2 Wrap

Shawn Siegele goes beyond targets to looks at snaps and pass routes in the Week 2 breakdown of PFF's advanced wide receiver stats.

| 2 years ago
Andre Johnson

Advanced Targets – Week 2 Wrap


Andre JohnsonAdvanced Targets goes behind the scenes and provides snap and pass route splits in addition to target numbers. Yards per route (YPRR), targets per snap (TA/SN), targets per route (TA/PR), and pass routes per snap (PR/SN) are exclusive PFF metrics that will help inform your start/sit, waiver wire, and trade decisions in a way no other service can.

Each week I try to focus on slightly different elements of the advanced targets portfolio while providing you the full advanced splits. This week we’ll start with those players who were most heavily targeted on a per route basis. It’s always valuable to see which players received double digit targets on 30 routes as opposed to those who managed the same feat on 45 or more. We’ll also look at the big name players who suffered from run-heavy game plans and finally examine the poor efficiency numbers for many of the breakout candidates.

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Shawn Siegele is a lead writer for PFF Fantasy and creator of Money in the Banana Stand. He also contributes to RotoViz. You can follow him on twitter @FF_Contrarian.

 

 

  • MCHAWKING

    I’m genuinely curious how to use this data to predict future fantasy performance.

    Should Andre Johnson be interpreted as having an increasing value because he is bound to run MORE than just 17 routes on 63 snaps in the future? Or is his stock currently inflated because his 4.35 yards per route run is unsustainable and the Texans seem content to run the ball and let him block?

    You said at the start of the article “It’s always valuable to see which players received double digit targets on 30 routes as opposed to those who managed the same feat on 45 or more” but you didn’t explain why. Its not even clear to me if a high percentage of targets per route run on a low number of routes run is a good thing (“This is the QBs main guy”) or a bad thing (“This is unsustainable, he is blocking instead of route running”).

    In the future, I would like to see a little more context added to the numbers (ie. what is a good number of targets per route run, yards per route run, snaps per route, etc.)

    • Shawn Siegele

      Excellent points. 3.0 is the realistic ceiling for full year yards per route. Even for run-heavy squads, it’s very unusual for the top receiving targets to consistently go below 50% pass routes per snap. Johnson won’t be able to maintain those efficiency levels, but he’s playing extremely well and doesn’t seem to be suffering from the offseason overhaul in Houston. His total number of routes will rise sharply going forward.

      In general, a higher target rate is better. Targets that result mostly from game script are less representative of a QB looking a player’s way. I also recommend checking out the full season Advanced Targets recaps from previous years to get a fuller sense of context on some of the different stats. If you have an interest in that level of detail, there’s no substitute for going through the numbers yourself.