Trade Wins – Second-Guessing Strength of Schedule

Ryan McKee looks at past RB performances in the all-important playoff weeks to determine whether strength of schedule played a significant role.

| 3 years ago

Trade Wins – Second-Guessing Strength of Schedule

deangelo-williamsMy wife and I had our first child yesterday. It was an amazing experience and I’m grateful both my wife and baby Maya are healthy and happy. Of course, this also changes everything. Forever. And if there’s one thing I’ve picked up from the parenting books, blogs, apps and classes, it’s that getting your baby into a routine is paramount. In fact, babies may just have the ultimate strength of schedule factor out there, even moreso than when Rob Gronkowski gets to face the Jets in week 16. And while Gronk may lead you to championship glory in the coming weeks, a strong schedule with your baby paves the way to the ultimate parenting prize…sleep!

In the fantasy football world, you’ll frequently hear phrases like ‘it’s a game of matchups’, and it’s likely that your league mates are all gearing up for the home stretch by carefully disecting the strenght of schedule of their roster.

But is setting your roster as simple as picking the players facing the weakest opponent? Is strength of schedule more reliable than other key factors like past performance, targets/touches, etc?

To get an answer to this, I had a look at the top ten RB performers in weeks 14-16 since 2008. Once I listed those players, I took the average PFF Rating of those players’ opponents to determine whether a more advantageous schedule played a role.

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  • aaron

    I was very curious to see the results after reading the title. Great idea for an article. Would it be a better indicator if you gave each RBs average fantasy pts per game to get a 3 week score then see what percentage increase or decrease? What percentage increase would you expect if they faced a 20th ranked schedule vs a 10th?