Predicting second half surges is one of the most important aspects of fantasy football. Every year, players emerge late in the season and propel astute owners to championship glory. Although we tend to think of RBs and WRs as the emerging talents, you shouldn’t assume the current QB ranking will remain this way. If history tells us anything, there are at least a couple QBs that vault into QB1 territory in the second half.
The following table shows these QBs. To qualify, a QB had to be outside the top 12 (Tom Brady was right on 12 in 2010) during the first eight weeks of the season and then finish inside the top 12 for the second eight weeks. They also had to move at least 10 spots up the ranking in that time, so simply moving from 16th to 10th isn’t going to cut it.
YEAR | QB | WKS 1-8 | WKS 9-16 | REASON |
2013 | N. Foles | 33 | 1 | IR |
2013 | B. Roethlisberger | 21 | 3 | GI-R |
2013 | T. Brady | 22 | 5 | GI-R |
2013 | R. Tannehill | 19 | 8 | GI-Y |
2013 | R. Fitzpatrick | 36 | 9 | IR |
2012 | R. Wilson | 23 | 4 | GI-Y |
2012 | C. Kaepernick | 35 | 13 | IR |
2011 | T. Tebow | 31 | 7 | PR |
2011 | C. Palmer | 45 | 12 | GI-R |
2010 | M. Vick | 26 | 1 | IR |
2010 | T. Brady | 12 | 2 | GI-R |
2010 | B. Roethlisberger | 31 | 4 | GI-R |
2010 | M. Cassel | 23 | 5 | GI-R |
2010 | J. Cutler | 24 | 6 | GI-R |
2010 | M. Schaub | 17 | 7 | GI-R |
2009 | D. McNabb | 20 | 3 | GI-R |
2009 | V. Young | NA | 10 | PR |
2008 | M. Cassel | 20 | 1 | GI-Y |
2008 | T. Thigpen | 29 | 2 | IR |
2008 | S. Hill | 42 | 11 | PR |
The last column consists of an abbreviation that serves to group the players based on the reason for their emergence. These abbreviations consist of:
IR: INJURY REPLACEMENT
Injury Replacement: these passers took over from a injured starter and went on to perform better than expected. Nick Foles taking over for Michael Vick (who took over from Kevin Kolb three years earlier) and Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Jake Locker are the most recent examples, but Colin Kaepernick replacing Alex Smith in 2012 is another notable one (Kaep finished just outside the top 12, at 13, but I decided to include him anyway).
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