Time to trade for Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell represent buy-low candidates in Tyler Loechner's Week 4 fantasy football trade value chart and market analysis.

| 2 years ago
(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)

(AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)

Time to trade for Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the 2015 fantasy football trade value chart, which can help you strike a trade if you’re looking to improve your team and maximize value. Skip to the bottom if you just want to browse the chart, but keep reading if you want help making sense of it all.

We also have an updated Fantasy 124, the fantasy football stock market index showing the value of the (roughly) 124 most valuable fantasy football players on a weekly basis. The index — and the trade value charts — rely on PFF Fantasy’s Rest-of-Season projections from Mike Clay. The dollar amounts assume a 12-team league with a $200 cap and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex. There are two charts — one for standard leagues and one for points-per-reception (PPR) leagues.

The purpose of the Fantasy 124 is to show risers and fallers at a macro-level. As you can see below, quarterbacks and running backs rose in value while wideouts and tight ends fell.

And new this week — at your request — is an additional column in the trade value charts that shows how much each player’s value has changed week-over-week. Antonio Brown’s value decreased the most from Week 3 to Week 4 as a result of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury.

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Tyler Loechner is a lead writer at PFF Fantasy. He has played fantasy football since 1999 and has been a part of the PFF Fantasy staff since 2010. Tyler was also previously a fantasy football featured columnist at Bleacher Report.

  • Zeke

    These numbers are still rather opaque – what is the basis/rationale? It baffles me that Donte Moncrief’s value drops 85% after a week of continued TD scoring. Is this some kind of reflection of Andrew Luck?

    And that’s just one example. Generally speaking, these numbers are fine in the abstract but don’t stand up to real scrutiny.

    • Tyler Loechner

      Hi Zeke,

      Thank you for pointing out the Moncrief value. There was an error in my equation but I’ve fixed it for future iterations. His PPR value was right but the standard value should be $5. I will make a note of it in the article. Thanks for the careful scrutiny! It’s my goal to make this chart as accurate as possible on a weekly basis. There will of course be disagreements (that’s the beauty of fantasy football) but I always want to correct errors. Thanks!

  • Chang Liu

    Yea, once again, these numbers cannot make any sense. Hopkins value is on par with abdullah? Really? You guys should inflate the numbers to triple digits so people can see a bigger gap in between players. Kind of like what John Paulsen over at 4for4 does

    • Tyler Loechner

      Great suggest for the numbers inflation. I’ve already begun working to have that in place by next week.

      Our projections still like Abdullah for the rest of the season as an RB2.

  • Eric Lucas

    I’m a little unclear on this as well. I mean even without Ben Roethlisberger I find it very hard to see how Antonio Brown is the valued the same as Forsett. Am I missing something?

    • evo34

      Don’t expect an answer from PFF. I asked Mike Clay why he had Foster ranked #2 overall, and he defiantly claimed he did not. “I didn’t write that article.” Then, “Those aren’t my rankings.” Once I explained/proved to him that those are, in fact, his current rankings, he said simply, “It should be no surprise [Foster is that high], since I had him as the #2 RB pre-season.”

      To recap: deny, deny, acquiesce with no explanation. Is this really what we paid for?

      • Tyler Loechner

        Hi Evo23 and Eric,

        I tried to address the Foster question in my previous comment to Evo24. Regarding Brown/Forsett, Brown took a big hit in our projections as a result of the Roethlisberger injury. At the same time, our projections didn’t panic with Forsett. After last night’s game, both of those appear to have been good choices (Forsett was great and Brown struggled with Vick). Right now we have Forsett at ~10th for RBs and Brown at ~5th for WRs. That value would seem to be on par.

        With that said, I think Brown’s value skyrockets when Roethsliberger returns.

        • evo34

          23, 24, who’s counting…

          Brilliant call on Brown. The rest of the FFL community thought he wouldn’t get any better after Ben returned. :)

  • evo34

    I don’t think the author understands how “buy-low” works.. You can only buy low if the actual value of a player is well above his perceived value. So no, buying Antonio Brown now when your own valuation places him as barely a top-20 player (and everyone else still thinks he is an easy top-10 guy), is not “buying low.”

    Also, rating Arian Foster as a top-2 player in all of fant. football is embarrassing. For me. I can’t believe I paid to get this stuff..

    • Tyler Loechner

      Hi Evo34,

      Thanks for the comment. Brown’s value will only rise as Roethlisberger gets closer to injury, hence he’s a “buy-low” (his value is at it’s lowest point right now). The fact he needed overtime to keep his impressive 5-catch, 50-plus yard streak alive last night with Vick should help explain why.

      Regarding Foster, I’m not sure what the big issue is there. I have absolutely no problem with you thinking Foster is not No. 2 (really anywhere in the top 10 and I can see the point being made), but it’s not like he’s a no-name in the No. 2 spot. Running backs have been in flux this season and Foster has been one of the best for a long time.

      It’s important to remember that projections are different than rankings. I’m not in the business of projecting injuries, which play a bigger role in rankings than they do in projections. When projecting the ROS, unless a guy has a pre-existing injury, it’s difficult to say “I’m going to dock future projections because he has suffered injuries in the past.” It’s fair to move him lower on your rankings because of injury risk, but factoring risk into projections is a much different issue. “Risk” is subjective.

      It’s a subtle difference between rankings and projections, but it’s an important one to note, and these trade values are based on projections, not rankings.

      If rankings are what you’re looking for, our ROS rankings can be found here: https://www.profootballfocus.com/toolkit/staff-rankings/ros/

      And weekly rankings here:

      • evo34

        Rankings and projections are the same concept. You are trying to project rest of season performance. The fact that you had Foster as a #1 or #2 overall player all season and no one on your staff wanted to own speaks volumes as to the dysfunction of your process.

        As for Brown, please re-read my opening statement:

        You can only buy low if the actual value of a player is well above his
        perceived value. So no, buying Antonio Brown now when your own
        valuation places him as barely a top-20 player (and everyone else still
        thinks he is an easy top-10 guy), is not “buying low.”

        If you like a guy more than the market does, rank/project him higher, not lower than the consensus. Basic principle.