The Method to My Rankings Madness, Part 3

| 4 years ago

The Method to My Rankings Madness, Part 3


Our new staff dynasty rankings released over the weekend, and if you’ve seen them, then you probably noticed that my contributions are, in places, radically different from those of Bryan and Chad. The root of many of those differences is my personal leaning toward perceived safety over potential longevity, and that is not idle philosophy. I based my rankings heavily on a framework that values players with a statistical model, and so much of the leg work is done before I’ve even considered my opinions. Here is how I got there.

Continued from Part 2.

 

Here are the results for wide receivers:

 

Player Pos Exp2013Price YTR Category DiscRate Price ScaledPrice
Calvin Johnson WR $89.20 10 Star in prime 0.44 $112.77 $52
Brandon Marshall WR $75.08 8 Star in prime 0.44 $79.19 $37
A.J. Green WR $73.23 12 Star in prime 0.44 $78.50 $37
Wes Welker WR $76.89 5 Star in prime 0.44 $73.65 $34
Roddy White WR $74.21 6 Star in prime 0.44 $72.57 $34
Victor Cruz WR $70.50 11 Star in prime 0.44 $71.98 $33
Julio Jones WR $67.16 13 Star in prime 0.44 $65.13 $30
Dez Bryant WR $66.44 13 Star in prime 0.44 $63.51 $30
Marques Colston WR $67.32 7 Star in prime 0.44 $60.94 $28
Vincent Jackson WR $65.82 7 Star in prime 0.44 $57.79 $27
Andre Johnson WR $67.87 5 Star in prime 0.44 $56.45 $26
Percy Harvin WR $63.10 12 Star in prime 0.44 $55.74 $26
Eric Decker WR $61.10 11 Star in prime 0.44 $50.99 $24
Mike Wallace WR $59.82 10 Star in prime 0.44 $47.75 $22
Steve Johnson WR $59.55 10 Star in prime 0.44 $47.15 $22
Demaryius Thomas WR $58.44 12 Star in prime 0.44 $45.31 $21
Hakeem Nicks WR $57.59 12 Star in prime 0.44 $43.38 $20
Reggie Wayne WR $66.24 3 Star in prime 0.44 $42.32 $20
Dwayne Bowe WR $57.25 9 Star in prime 0.44 $41.57 $19
Michael Crabtree WR $56.43 12 Star in prime 0.44 $40.79 $19
Larry Fitzgerald WR $57.14 7 Star in prime 0.44 $39.59 $18
Jeremy Maclin WR $55.51 12 Star in prime 0.44 $38.75 $18
Greg Jennings WR $56.25 8 Star in prime 0.44 $38.69 $18
Jordy Nelson WR $55.88 9 Star in prime 0.44 $38.57 $18
Mike A. Williams WR $54.02 11 Star in prime 0.44 $35.20 $16
Brandon Lloyd WR $56.41 5 Star in prime 0.44 $34.61 $16
Miles Austin WR $53.66 8 Star in prime 0.44 $33.13 $15
Kenny Britt WR $45.05 13 Potential star 0.19 $32.04 $15
Lance Moore WR $53.16 7 Star in prime 0.44 $31.25 $15
Randall Cobb WR $51.08 14 Star in prime 0.44 $28.99 $13
Pierre Garcon WR $51.30 9 Star in prime 0.44 $28.55 $13
Steve L. Smith WR $56.80 3 Star in prime 0.44 $28.05 $13
T.Y. Hilton WR $50.31 14 Star in prime 0.44 $27.25 $13
DeSean Jackson WR $49.99 11 Star in prime 0.44 $26.20 $12
Danny Amendola WR $49.95 10 Star in prime 0.44 $25.90 $12
Torrey Smith WR $48.95 13 Star in prime 0.44 $24.12 $11
Malcom Floyd WR $49.98 6 Star in prime 0.44 $23.66 $11
Antonio Brown WR $48.66 12 Star in prime 0.44 $23.36 $11
Justin Blackmon WR $48.35 14 Star in prime 0.44 $22.82 $11
Anquan Boldin WR $49.60 5 Star in prime 0.44 $21.62 $10
Kendall Wright WR $42.38 14 Potential star 0.19 $19.81 $9
James Jones WR $51.11 8 RORA 0.68 $18.61 $9
Cecil Shorts WR $44.76 12 Star in prime 0.44 $14.60 $7
Nate Burleson WR $44.57 5 Star in prime 0.44 $12.05 $6
Denarius Moore WR $45.38 13 Non-star 0.6 $11.84 $6
Sidney Rice WR $43.37 10 Star in prime 0.44 $11.34 $5
Nate Washington WR $44.67 7 Non-star 0.6 $10.29 $5
Brian Hartline WR $42.38 11 Star in prime 0.44 $9.21 $4
Danario Alexander WR $44.37 12 RORA 0.68 $8.99 $4
Mario Manningham WR $41.65 10 Star in prime 0.44 $7.51 $3
Davone Bess WR $42.75 10 Non-star 0.6 $7.43 $3
Titus Young WR $39.73 13 Potential star 0.19 $6.97 $3
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR $39.77 11 Potential star 0.19 $6.82 $3
Josh Gordon WR $42.22 15 Non-star 0.6 $6.59 $3
Santana Moss WR $45.15 3 Star in decline 0.92 $6.45 $3
Jarius Wright WR $39.43 14 Potential star 0.19 $5.67 $3
Donnie Avery WR $41.50 8 Non-star 0.6 $5.29 $2
Andre Roberts WR $40.55 12 Star in prime 0.44 $5.15 $2
Laurent Robinson WR $40.86 9 Non-star 0.6 $4.28 $2
Domenik Hixon WR $38.25 9 Non-star 0.6 $0.00 $0
Brandon Stokley WR $35.96 0 Non-star 0.6 $0.00 $0
Donald Driver WR $28.96 -1 Retired 1.04 $0.00 $0
Jordan Shipley WR $37.95 10 Non-star 0.6 -$0.52 $0
Brandon LaFell WR $37.98 11 Potential star 0.19 -$1.20 $0
Greg Little WR $37.94 13 Potential star 0.19 -$1.45 $0
Brandon Gibson WR $37.15 11 Non-star 0.6 -$1.86 $0
Deion Branch WR $35.89 3 Star in decline 0.92 -$2.20 $0
Jeremy Kerley WR $35.92 13 Non-star 0.6 -$3.90 $0
Donald Jones WR $35.26 12 Non-star 0.6 -$5.00 $0
Chris Givens WR $37.06 14 Potential star 0.19 -$5.69 $0
Armon Binns WR $34.77 14 Non-star 0.6 -$5.80 $0
Randy Moss WR $26.71 1 Star in decline 0.92 -$6.01 $0
Andrew Hawkins WR $34.10 10 Non-star 0.6 -$6.87 $0
Ryan Broyles WR $36.72 12 Potential star 0.19 -$7.04 $0
Jason Avant WR $33.86 7 Non-star 0.6 -$7.05 $0
Steve Breaston WR $33.82 7 Non-star 0.6 -$7.12 $0
Robert Meachem WR $33.77 9 Non-star 0.6 -$7.36 $0
Braylon Edwards WR $32.85 7 Non-star 0.6 -$8.68 $0
Rod Streater WR $32.94 12 Non-star 0.6 -$8.83 $0
Michael Jenkins WR $32.29 6 Non-star 0.6 -$9.35 $0
Riley Cooper WR $32.60 12 Non-star 0.6 -$9.40 $0
Marvin Jones WR $32.42 14 Non-star 0.6 -$9.74 $0
Steve Smith WR $32.18 9 Non-star 0.6 -$9.98 $0
Kevin Walter WR $31.35 5 Non-star 0.6 -$10.40 $0
Doug Baldwin WR $31.52 13 Non-star 0.6 -$11.22 $0
Dwayne Harris WR $31.47 12 Non-star 0.6 -$11.28 $0
Julian Edelman WR $31.40 10 Non-star 0.6 -$11.32 $0
Aldrick Robinson WR $31.38 13 Non-star 0.6 -$11.44 $0
Josh Morgan WR $31.22 9 Non-star 0.6 -$11.56 $0
Rishard Matthews WR $31.30 14 Non-star 0.6 -$11.58 $0
Alshon Jeffery WR $35.45 14 Potential star 0.19 -$13.43 $0
Early Doucet WR $29.71 10 Non-star 0.6 -$14.11 $0
Juron Criner WR $29.34 14 Non-star 0.6 -$14.83 $0
Kevin Ogletree WR $29.24 11 Non-star 0.6 -$14.94 $0
Josh Cooper WR $29.21 13 Non-star 0.6 -$15.05 $0
Micheal Spurlock WR $28.86 7 Non-star 0.6 -$15.07 $0
Lestar Jean WR $29.12 12 Non-star 0.6 -$15.18 $0
Jerome Simpson WR $28.79 10 Non-star 0.6 -$15.64 $0
Eddie Royal WR $28.61 10 Non-star 0.6 -$15.91 $0
Golden Tate WR $34.77 12 Potential star 0.19 -$16.02 $0
Derek Hagan WR $28.48 9 Non-star 0.6 -$16.06 $0
Michael Floyd WR $34.83 14 Potential star 0.19 -$16.41 $0
Chaz Schilens WR $27.96 10 Non-star 0.6 -$17.00 $0
Lavelle Hawkins WR $27.83 10 Non-star 0.6 -$17.23 $0
Brandon Banks WR $27.86 12 Non-star 0.6 -$17.27 $0
Jamar Newsome WR $27.65 12 Non-star 0.6 -$17.63 $0
Marlon Moore WR $26.87 12 Non-star 0.6 -$18.93 $0
Tiquan Underwood WR $26.72 11 Non-star 0.6 -$19.12 $0
Jacoby Jones WR $26.18 8 Non-star 0.6 -$19.64 $0
Devin Hester WR $25.74 7 Non-star 0.6 -$20.09 $0
Harry Douglas WR $25.91 9 Non-star 0.6 -$20.28 $0
Stephen Burton WR $25.79 14 Non-star 0.6 -$20.74 $0
Jerricho Cotchery WR $24.85 6 Non-star 0.6 -$21.01 $0
Kyle Williams WR $24.59 8 Non-star 0.6 -$22.24 $0
Clyde Gates WR $24.64 10 Non-star 0.6 -$22.49 $0
Damaris Johnson WR $24.30 14 Non-star 0.6 -$23.22 $0
Joshua Cribbs WR $23.50 7 Non-star 0.6 -$23.67 $0
Dexter McCluster WR $32.89 12 Potential star 0.19 -$24.69 $0
Devery Henderson WR $22.13 6 Non-star 0.6 -$25.27 $0
Devin Aromashodu WR $22.54 8 Non-star 0.6 -$25.59 $0
Brad Smith WR $21.86 8 Non-star 0.6 -$26.70 $0
LaVon Brazill WR $21.62 13 Non-star 0.6 -$27.67 $0
Rueben Randle WR $32.30 15 Potential star 0.19 -$28.98 $0
Leonard Hankerson WR $31.75 12 Potential star 0.19 -$29.93 $0
Earl Bennett WR $31.47 11 Potential star 0.19 -$30.37 $0
Matt Willis WR $17.49 8 Non-star 0.6 -$33.80 $0
Emmanuel Sanders WR $30.34 11 Potential star 0.19 -$35.45 $0
Mohamed Massaquoi WR $28.76 11 Potential star 0.19 -$42.53 $0
Armanti Edwards WR $28.92 12 Potential star 0.19 -$42.96 $0
Stephen Hill WR $29.19 15 Potential star 0.19 -$44.11 $0
Damian Williams WR $28.65 12 Potential star 0.19 -$44.19 $0
Austin Pettis WR $28.19 12 Potential star 0.19 -$46.33 $0
DeVier Posey WR $28.21 14 Potential star 0.19 -$48.15 $0
Travis Benjamin WR $27.31 14 Potential star 0.19 -$52.47 $0
Mike Thomas WR $25.45 11 Potential star 0.19 -$57.36 $0
Tandon Doss WR $26.21 14 Potential star 0.19 -$57.73 $0
Jerrel Jernigan WR $25.94 13 Potential star 0.19 -$57.96 $0
Louis Murphy WR $25.29 11 Potential star 0.19 -$58.09 $0
Brandon Tate WR $22.40 12 Potential star 0.19 -$73.00 $0
Jonathan Baldwin WR $22.00 13 Potential star 0.19 -$76.51 $0
T.J. Graham WR $20.88 13 Potential star 0.19 -$81.78 $0
Brian Quick WR $15.10 13 Potential star 0.19 -$109.02 $0
Keshawn Martin WR $15.19 14 Potential star 0.19 -$110.61 $0

 

Here are the results for tight ends:

 

Player Pos Exp2013Price YTR Category DiscRate Price ScaledPrice
Rob Gronkowski TE $67.76 13 Star in prime 0.415 $59.65 $28
Jimmy Graham TE $63.33 11 Star in prime 0.415 $48.69 $23
Jason Witten TE $59.89 6 Star in prime 0.415 $36.49 $17
Aaron Hernandez TE $54.14 14 Star in prime 0.415 $27.67 $13
Antonio Gates TE $50.85 4 Star in decline 0.955 $8.18 $4
Brandon Pettigrew TE $45.71 9 Non-star 0.585 $5.47 $3
Heath Miller TE $44.57 7 RORA 0.625 $3.28 $2
Jermaine Gresham TE $42.96 12 Potential star 0.185 $2.44 $1
Owen Daniels TE $43.57 7 Non-star 0.585 $1.86 $1
Dustin Keller TE $43.02 9 Non-star 0.585 $0.96 $0
Tony Gonzalez TE $56.63 0 Star in prime 0.415 $0.00 $0
Vernon Davis TE $42.43 8 Star in prime 0.415 $0.00 $0
Fred Davis TE $40.93 10 Non-star 0.585 -$2.52 $0
Dennis Pitta TE $40.59 9 Non-star 0.585 -$3.08 $0
Greg Olsen TE $40.40 9 RORA 0.625 -$3.18 $0
Brent Celek TE $39.73 9 Non-star 0.585 -$4.51 $0
Dallas Clark TE $36.90 3 Star in decline 0.955 -$4.99 $0
Jacob Tamme TE $37.96 9 Non-star 0.585 -$7.47 $0
Scott Chandler TE $37.66 9 Non-star 0.585 -$7.95 $0
Jermichael Finley TE $40.42 11 Potential star 0.185 -$9.02 $0
Tom Crabtree TE $35.52 10 Non-star 0.585 -$11.59 $0
Brandon Myers TE $35.03 10 RORA 0.625 -$11.66 $0
Marcedes Lewis TE $34.74 8 Non-star 0.585 -$12.72 $0
Ben Watson TE $33.78 5 Non-star 0.585 -$13.22 $0
Dave Thomas TE $34.16 7 Non-star 0.585 -$13.48 $0
John Phillips TE $32.77 11 Non-star 0.585 -$16.27 $0
Gary Barnidge TE $32.41 10 Non-star 0.585 -$16.83 $0
Anthony Fasano TE $32.05 8 Non-star 0.585 -$17.17 $0
James Hanna TE $31.57 13 Non-star 0.585 -$18.35 $0
Jared Cook TE $38.33 11 Potential star 0.185 -$18.38 $0
Bear Pascoe TE $31.29 10 Non-star 0.585 -$18.69 $0
Matt Spaeth TE $30.42 9 Non-star 0.585 -$20.06 $0
Evan Moore TE $30.21 9 Non-star 0.585 -$20.39 $0
Zach J. Miller TE $29.34 10 Non-star 0.585 -$21.97 $0
Will Heller TE $27.93 5 Non-star 0.585 -$22.15 $0
Joel Dreessen TE $28.42 6 Non-star 0.585 -$22.28 $0
David Ausberry TE $28.74 12 Non-star 0.585 -$23.10 $0
Anthony McCoy TE $28.72 12 Non-star 0.585 -$23.16 $0
Tony Scheffler TE $28.17 7 Non-star 0.585 -$23.23 $0
Michael Palmer TE $28.62 12 Non-star 0.585 -$23.32 $0
Kyle Rudolph TE $37.48 14 Potential star 0.185 -$23.75 $0
Daniel Fells TE $27.66 8 Non-star 0.585 -$24.42 $0
Matthew Mulligan TE $27.67 9 Non-star 0.585 -$24.63 $0
David Paulson TE $27.66 13 Non-star 0.585 -$24.95 $0
Jeff Cumberland TE $27.35 11 Non-star 0.585 -$25.42 $0
Garrett Graham TE $27.26 10 Non-star 0.585 -$25.47 $0
Logan Paulsen TE $27.01 11 Non-star 0.585 -$25.97 $0
Charles Clay TE $26.29 13 Non-star 0.585 -$27.31 $0
Dante Rosario TE $25.91 9 Non-star 0.585 -$27.57 $0
Jeff King TE $24.85 7 Non-star 0.585 -$28.63 $0
Taylor Thompson TE $24.56 14 Non-star 0.585 -$30.22 $0
Delanie Walker TE $24.05 8 Non-star 0.585 -$30.38 $0
Niles Paul TE $24.00 13 Non-star 0.585 -$31.15 $0
John Carlson TE $22.72 8 Non-star 0.585 -$32.58 $0
Craig Stevens TE $22.74 9 Non-star 0.585 -$32.84 $0
Kellen Davis TE $21.06 10 Non-star 0.585 -$35.87 $0
Dwayne Allen TE $33.29 14 Potential star 0.185 -$43.85 $0
Tony Moeaki TE $31.80 11 Potential star 0.185 -$47.63 $0
Martellus Bennett TE $31.37 11 Potential star 0.185 -$49.56 $0
Rob Housler TE $30.59 12 Potential star 0.185 -$54.51 $0
Ed Dickson TE $27.80 11 Potential star 0.185 -$65.56 $0
Coby Fleener TE $28.35 13 Potential star 0.185 -$66.32 $0
Lance Kendricks TE $27.72 12 Potential star 0.185 -$67.74 $0
Orson Charles TE $26.52 15 Potential star 0.185 -$77.48 $0
Clay Harbor TE $24.87 11 Potential star 0.185 -$78.68 $0
Luke Stocker TE $22.58 12 Potential star 0.185 -$91.42 $0
Jordan Cameron TE $21.01 12 Potential star 0.185 -$98.62 $0

 

I used those generated rankings as a framework for the ones I turned into Bryan.

On the whole, I believe my valuation methodology is very good at weighing short-term expected production versus long-term potential of at-least somewhat-established players. For example, if I asked you to, in a vacuum, select either Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford at quarterback in a dynasty league with no other knowledge of your team composition, how would you answer? I think most people would expect Brees to outscore Stafford for the next few years, but Stafford should have many years left in him after Brees retires. My methodology balances the two based on historical risk patterns.

However, any dynasty valuation tool is only as good as its projections, and mine are woefully ill-equipped to handle potential stars with little-to-no experience. Case in point: David Wilson and Lamar Miller, both of whom I ranked in the top-20 in the rankings I turned into Bryan, were outside the top-100 of the generated running back rankings.

To fix that, I would need to put a lot more effort into my projections, using comparable players to forecast potential career arcs. Again, that is a long-term goal. For now, it is easier to manually adjust those players based on my own opinions on their skills, situations, and time tables. And since I have confidence in the prices of more experienced players, slotting those potential stars provides tight ranges for pricing them. I’ll do the same for the 2013 rookie class when the time comes.

Apart from that, the only other systematic limitation I noticed is for players with expanded roles. One example is Colin Kaepernick, who did not start until halfway through the season but then started every game from then on. My projections are not smart enough to differentiate that pattern from a player that missed eight games due to injury, for instance, and so Kaepernick’s projections are weighted down by a half-season of replacement-level quarterback production. Similarly, players like C.J. Spiller and Stevan Ridley that show year-to-year role expansion are underrated.

In the end, the generated rankings described most of the rankings I eventually turned into Bryan, which I think is a solid start. And my valuation methodology should provide a consistency to my rankings going forward.

Scott Spratt also works for Baseball Info Solutions and writes for The Hardball Times.  Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt

Find more of our Dynasty Content here.

  • Wintermute

    I think this is a fine addition to the dynasty rankings and the fact that there are significant differences between the three of you is a welcome development.  It forces us to take a second look at key players.  For example, you ranked M. Vick relatively high, which seemed incongruous with how he performed in 2012.  But his prior seasons deserved our attention, your ranking methodology called attention to those past seasons, and now he appears to be QB1 in a Chip Kelly offense.  Sweet.