The Matchup Machine – Week 8’s Best and Worst

Dan Schneier breaks down the best and worst fantasy football day game matchups for Week 6.

| 3 years ago
Larry-Fitzgerald

The Matchup Machine – Week 8’s Best and Worst


EddieLacyFor those subscribers who were active readers in 2012, you might remember that last season I wrote a weekly column breaking down the best and worst matchups for running backs. Using PFF’s grading system I was able to breakdown and pinpoint matchups along the offensive/defensive lines and between the fullbacks and tight ends/ linebackers. However, there is more to a running back’s weekly matchup including coaching tendencies, what direction a running back has success rushing to and the likelihood that a team is rushing based on the score of the game. All factors considered, I was able to predict the worst matchups at a highly successful rate while also targeting some of the breakout backs of the week.

This season I will be trying something a little different. Instead of just focusing in on the running backs, I will look into all of the different matchups in fantasy football including quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends in an attempt to pick the overall best and worst matchups of the week. Fortunately, PFF has all the tools to break down each individual matchup. Want to know how your wide receiver is going to do? Well if he lines up as a split end on 90% of his snaps, we can pinpoint which cornerback he will be matching up with for those snaps.

Of course, as was the case last season, this column will become more accurate as the season goes on and we compile more grades for the players and get a feel for tendencies and overall strengths/weaknesses of the 32 teams.

Before each new matchup projection for this week, I will revisit my prediction from last week so you all can get an idea of the process and its results. All the results will show how a player scored in a standard scoring system and in a 12 team league. The only difference is that by “standard” I am referring to what the majority of leagues have moved to – 0.5 points per reception. If you are a reader at PFF, it is likely that you are playing in this scoring system.

I find that this column can best be used for fantasy football day gamers. In leagues set up on websites like fanduel.com, you can choose from the entire player pool and must assemble a team based on a salary cap format.  You can get a 100% deposit bonus & chase the dream of the $1 million 1st prize at the FanDuel Fantasy Championship.

Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst options for Week 8.

Also, please feel encouraged to tweet questions at me on Twitter @PFF_DanSc or post them in the comments if you want to know any specific cornerback/wide receiver matchups for your players or if you want an idea of how your running back’s offensive line grades out or the rush defense that he faces.

 

Quarterback

The Best

Last Week: Tony Romo – 18th-overall QB 

What Happened: The Eagles defense played their first impressive game of the season in the first half. Romo got going in the second half, but failed to score a touchdown to go along with his 300+ passing yards.

Peyton Manning vs. Redskins

Peyton is an obvious every-week starter at quarterback and we all know that. This column, however, is dedicated to the best matchups. While I do often opt with a lesser-known player if the matchup is close, it is far too tempting not to target the Redskins defense. You know that things have gotten really sour for your defense when Josh McCown comes in off the bench and proceeds to move his team down the field for several touchdowns without taking a single first-team rep in practice the entire year. The Redskins have moved backwards and are grading out as our second-worst defense in pass coverage (-30.3). By default, Brandon Merriweather had been starting at safety. He is suspended for this game and his direct backup E.J. Biggers might be the only safety in the NFL who takes worse angles to the football.

The Redskins have used four safeties this season—Brandon Meriweather, Bacarri Rambo, E.J. Biggers and Reed Doughty. Together, they have a combined (-12.3) grade in pass coverage. Manning will pick apart this secondary the entire game. He has his options and can freely toss the ball anywhere on the field.

Machine Readout: Start him and invest in him in your daily fantasy football leagues!

 

Last Week: Eli Manning – 22nd-overall QB

What Happened: Manning burned me again in what proved to be one of the ugliest games of the 2013 NFL season. He missed an easy touchdown to Hakeem Nicks early and Victor Cruz dropped an easy touchdown later.

Aaron Rodgers @ Vikings

Up until this point, Rodgers has been an incredible disappointment for those owners who had drafted him in the first or second round. In early August I labeled him as a player to avoid drafting, but that was based partially on his ADP. Don’t worry because this is the week where Rodgers flashes his rare form. At (-19.0), the Vikings have graded out as the seventh-worst team in pass coverage thus far. This number could be much worse. Just last week, the Giants receivers got wide open on two easy touchdowns—both times they failed to secure the catch and neither time did the credit belong to the defender.

Making matters worse, their most talented player in the secondary, safety Harrison Smith, is no longer healthy enough to play. Eventually, the Packers will pound the ball on the ground against an equally weak Vikings’ run defense. However, Rodgers will likely get going early and take advantage of the Vikings scheme which has proven to be very vulnerable to giving up big plays in one-on-one coverage.

Machine Readout: Start him and invest in him in daily leagues if you want to save a little salary rather than sending it Manning’s way.

 

Last Week Tom Brady – 26th-overall QB

What Happened: Brady struggled again after having built some momentum in the previous weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger @ Raiders

Things are finally coming together for the Steelers as they are currently on a two game winning streak. Improved play along the offensive line has a lot to do with their recent success. Roethlisberger himself deserves most of the praise. In three straight games he has been wildly efficient and has completed over 70% of his passes. This week, he faces off against a pass defense that is as equally unsuccessful so far as the Vikings’ secondary he torched in Week 4.

The Raiders have graded out as the eighth-worst team in pass coverage (-18.8) while generating no pass rush and grading out as the third-worst team (-20.0) at generating pressure. The Steelers should have a field day against this secondary and will expose them with three wide receiver sets.

Machine Readout: Start him! Roethlisberger is my pick for the best value in daily fantasy leagues for Week 8.

To read the entire article, please login or sign up for a PFF Fantasy Subscription

Not a PFF fantasy subscriber? Compare all of our packages and features here.



Dan Schneier is a staff writer for PFF Fantasy, a former FOX Sports NFL scribe, and an auction format enthusiast.

  • shawn

    do you still plan on doing tight ends this year

    • Dan Schneier

      Hey Shawn,

      Tight ends have been trickier to figure out because teams vary the way they
      Defend them. I will try to work them into the piece soon. For now, are there any in particular you are interested in knowing for this week? I will do a little research and see how team x defends tight ends

  • Adam Hartzell

    Not one of Romo’s best games against a stagnant defense, but he did have a TD in the 4th quarter!

    • Dan Schneier

      Thanks for reading Adam. It was a surprising first half but what it really showed me was that romo and the passing game is very dependent on Murray being healthy. With no threat of run, the eagles were able to game plan — although their lack of talent caught up to them in the second half of course

      • Adam Hartzell

        Hi Dan,

        I was at the game Sunday, obviously being an Eagles fan I was extremely disappointed – they just can’t get it together at home. That’s 3 straight games the defense has limited their opponent to 21 or less points, but their strength (the offense) had an awful day thanks to Foles. I agree about Murray. Murray also provides a lot of attention in the passing game as well, and he really helps their offense open up the field more. I think when Terrance Williams, Dez, Witten, and Murray are all healthy at the same time is when the Cowboys will put up numbers similar to their games against SD, NYG and WAS.

  • Terrence

    Brandon Carr is expected to shadow Megatron. Do you still recommend benching Durham?

    • Dan Schneier

      Hey Terrance,
      Up until this point care had lined up primarily at the LCB position but I did read today’s report that he would shadow Calvin.

      With that said,
      Durham should be able to see opportunities in coverage with Claiborne. While Claiborne struggled to start the season, he has rebounded with two straight games “in the green”. He may be improved based on his health clearing up.

      I would still keep Durham on the bench.

  • Neal

    Hey Dan,

    Do you have a back-up wr flier of the week? Jones is looking questionable and I’m desperate for a warm body lol.

    Thanks

    • Dan Schneier

      Hey Neal,

      I was seriously disappointed when I saw that Jones is questionable. This week, it was tough sledding digging for a flier. A majority of the cornerbacks I like to pick on were on bye or matched up with known wide receivers.

      With Leon Hall out due to injury, Jeremy Kerley will be matched up with a much more inexperienced cornerback in the slot. I worry about how many snaps he gets outside in addition because they have used newly-signed David Nelson in the slot at times.

      If Miles Austin sits, Danny Coale will have a nice matchup against Lions’ slot cornerback Dwight Bentley who has given up 31 receptions on 42 targets for 290 yards.

      Digging deep with both of those ones though haha.

      • shawn

        you mean cole beasley….not danny coale

  • Bjkowalsky

    Jarrett Boykin doesn’t operate out of the slot much at all. Myles white is the packers slot guy now that Cobb is out. Boykin is operating on the on the outside, which means his numbers could be better because it is easier to score when playing on the outside.

    • Dan Schneier

      Hey man,

      Last game of course he was operating as the flanker because James Jones was out. However, when Jones returns, which I originally thought would be this weekend, my best guess would still be that Boykin slides over into the slot in “11 personnel” packages. Boykin may not have the prototypical body for a slot receiver, but he is smart and he has developed good chemistry with Rodgers. When Jones is back, I can’t see them kicking Boykin off the field.

  • Mark

    Which 2 should I start Josh Gordon Steven Jackson or Michael Floyd?

    • Dan Schneier

      Is it PPR? .5 PPR?

      In standard – I would go with Jackson and Floyd
      In PPR I would go with Floyd and Gordon.

      However, look into the matchup and if you feel like you need a breakthrough game, Gordon is the better bet than Jackson. Jackson is the safer play.

      • Mark

        Thanks, My bad. It is standard.