The IDP Breakdown – Week 9 Edition

Jeff Ratcliffe goes game-by-game and breaks down all of the key IDP matchups for Week 9.

| 3 years ago
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The IDP Breakdown – Week 9 Edition


tempLeeGal6_040413_950--nfl_mezz_1280_1024Cincinnati @ Miami

You wouldn’t know it by looking at his stats, but Michael Johnson has been fantastic on the field this season. He’s converted just 1.5 of his 31 total QB pressures (sum of sacks, hits, and hurries) for sacks this season. That’s a conversion rate of just 4.8 percent. With the league average over the past five seasons hovering around 17 percent, it’s reasonable to expect Johnson to regress upward toward the mean. That makes him a perfect buy-low candidate who could be in store for a big second half of the season. … Michael Boley will get the start for Cincinnati with Rey Maualuga sidelined due to a sprained MCL, but I wouldn’t recommend running out and picking him up even in deeper leagues. Boley will likely not be in an every-down role and he faces a Dolphins team that gives up the least tackles per game to linebackers. I’m not worried about Vontaze Burfict in this one, but I’d recommend avoiding Boley.

This one is bad for Cameron Wake owners for multiple reasons. For starters, the Bengals offensive line has been a brutal matchup for opposing defensive ends this season. Bengals offensive tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith have given up just four sacks combined on the season. I’m also avoiding Wake this week because he’s still not back to an every-down role. That’s unlikely to change on a short week, so Wake won’t be back to his elite-level fantasy value until at least Week 10. … However, Dannell Ellerbe does appear to be back on track. He posted 11 total tackles in Week 8, though the pesky New England home stats crew recorded nine of them as assists. Still, Ellerbe makes for a strong play this week in a good matchup against the Bengals. He’s back to an every-week LB2.

 

Philadelphia @ Oakland

The Eagles just can’t seem to put it all together this season. The offense was clicking early on while the defense struggled, and now it’s the exact opposite. While this isn’t fun for a Philly fan, it’s good news if you have any piece of this Philly unit. Mychal Kendricks was downright bad over the first month of the season, but he’s looked much improved in the last few weeks. Last week, he posted an impressive 11 total tackles and gets a strong matchup against an Oakland team that currently yields the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing linebackers on a per game basis. Kendricks has leapfrogged back over DeMeco Ryans as the Eagles’ linebacker to own, and makes for a solid LB2 this week.

Lamarr Houston is one of the league’s most underrated pass rushers. Through seven games this season, he’s racked up 38 QB pressures converting four for sacks. However, I’m down on Houston this week and actually prefer Jason Hunter in this matchup. Houston gets a very tough matchup against Eagles LT Jason Peters, while Hunter gets to see rookie RT Lane Johnson for most of the day on Sunday. Johnson has been good at times, but he’s coming off of one of his worst performances of the season. Hunter is a dangerous play, as he’s been almost nonexistent over the last three games. But if you’re willing to gamble on upside, you could hit a big payoff with Hunter as your DL3.

 

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Jeff Ratcliffe is the Assistant Managing Editor and resident IDP maven of Pro Football Focus Fantasy. Follow him on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe.

| Director of Fantasy

Jeff Ratcliffe is the Director of Fantasy at Pro Football Focus. He produces all of our projections and is one of the most accurate rankers in the fantasy industry. Jeff also is the host of our show on SiriusXM fantasy sports radio and is one of the main hosts of our Fantasy Slant podcast.

  • Blindphleb

    You guys have been high on Wake the past few weeks without him producing and once you doubt him he produces a monster game. So it goes in fantasy sports …