The First Four Rounds

When a season ends, before I begin any research or speculation, I like to look back at the full schedule of results and compare them to those of the previous few seasons. I did much the same this time last year. This time, I wanted to cut back on the volume of presented data to make it a bit easier to digest, and so I will focus on the first four rounds of a typical fantasy draft.

For the sake of consistency, my valuations will follow the same league format I have previously used. It has typical scoring and 10 teams with 16-man rosters. Here is the breakdown:

The VBD Total column represents the number of players at each position one expects to be owned by all the teams in the league. In other words, it establishes the replacement level of every position. I reallocated the 70 bench players to the four major positions and assumed no team would own a spare defense or kicker. The 16 bench players that remain unallocated are for handcuffs or other speculative holds that do not affect the replacement level. For example, if I owned Ray Rice, I would also want to own Bernard Pierce because he provides me with insurance. Without an injury to Rice, Pierce would not be expected to out-produce other backs available on the waiver wire.

Pretend that everyone in the league knew how many points every player would score in 2012 when they drafted. If they all drafted teams according to value-based drafting principles, the first four rounds of a standard draft would have been as follows.

Unsurprisingly, Adrian Peterson created substantial separation from the field. He scored 25 percent more points over replacement than the No. 2 overall player, Arian Foster. He and Alfred Morris, the No. 5 overall player, are the clear-cut most valuable fantasy players when you consider where they were drafted in typical leagues.

A year removed from a 2011 season in which four quarterbacks were inside the top-10 in points over replacement, no quarterbacks managed the same distinction in 2012. Some of that is drop off of absolute production. Drew Brees, the top quarterback this season, scored 367 standard points this year, which would have placed him fifth in 2011.

However, more of that difference can be explained by the improved production nearer the replacement level. From 2009-2011, the sixteenth-best fantasy quarterbacks scored between 215 and 220 points. In 2012, the sixteenth-best fantasy quarterback, Carson Palmer, scored 245 points. That is a tremendous decrease in separation between the elite quarterbacks and the ones available on the wire.

After a historically great 2012 draft class that introduced Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck to the player pool, I expect the next few seasons to feature similar quality depth at the position, which decreases the value of the traditionally elite options. That point is better explained visually.

The chart shows how many players at each position should have been taken by each draft slot. In 2010, the best quarterback was only the twentieth-most-valuable player overall. Then in 2011, elite quarterbacks climbed into the first round. In absolute terms, things did not fall back into the same place in 2012, but, from a fantasy perspective, they did. Both in 2010 and 2012, seven running backs, four wide receivers, and no quarterbacks or tight ends were first-round values.

Throughout the first four rounds, 2012 looks very similar to 2010. A few more quarterbacks enter the second round where the depth of quality running back options has really dried up. Jimmy Graham, the most valuable tight end by season totals in 2012, does not come off the board until the sixth round, which is actually a round later than Jason Witten’s 2010 season justified his selection. Of course, injuries limited both Graham and Rob Gronkowski this season, and both should belong in the top-40 next season.

Looking forward, 2012 value is only one part of the equation. Even though no quarterbacks qualified for the top-10 this season, I would not dismiss Aaron Rodgers from consideration for the first overall pick next season. The old adage that I would apply is that you cannot win your fantasy season in the first four rounds, but you can certainly lose it. Part of the appeal of elite quarterbacks is their consistency. If you take Rodgers first overall, he probably will not return that full value, but he probably will not completely bust, either. In fact, Rodgers is one of six players to appear in the top-40 in each of the previous four seasons. You might be surprised to know he is the only quarterback.

Here is the full list of the top-40 from this season and the years each player has made it into the first four rounds:

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Scott Spratt also works for Baseball Info Solutions and writes for The Hardball Times.  Feel free to ask him questions on Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt

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