Team-By-Team Fantasy Trios

I decided to take a look back at the 2012 fantasy football season on a team-by-team basis, comparing each team’s leading quarterback, running back, and wide receiver’s fantasy success to their actual team’s offensive success according to the PFF grades. I did this exact same study two years ago and there were some very interesting results then, including an amazing correlation between fantasy success and the PFF grades. Here’s a quote from that article:

“After going through all of the numbers, the team PFF rankings were surprisingly close to the ranking of teams’ fantasy scorers. So close, in fact, that the average margin of error between the PFF rankings and average fantasy points scored was zero.”

This year, believe it or not, the average margin of error between the PFF rankings and the average fantasy points scored by a team’s leading QB, WR, and RB was…zero. Again.

For example, Atlanta’s combination of Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner were the sixth highest scoring fantasy trio on the same team in 2012. The Atlanta Falcons also had the sixth best offensive PFF grade for 2012. It’s not all perfect, though. Chicago’s combination of Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Jay Cutler combined as fantasy’s seventh best trio last season; but the Bears had an offense PFF grade of -35.3, third worst in the league.

Thirteen quarterbacks, eleven running backs, and eight wide receivers led their respective teams in fantasy points. Team leaders averaged 279 fantasy points over the course of the season. There was about a 58-point drop to the second tier, which averaged 221 fantasy points on the season. The third tier averaged 165 points, 56 lower than the second tier.

Let’s take a look at what these findings turned up. It should be noted that Week 17 was included in the point totals.

SNAPS AND POINTS PER SNAP

Typically, quarterbacks get more snaps than anybody else on a team. In 2012, there were 20 quarterbacks than took over 1,000 snaps. There were 10 receivers that had at least 1,000 snaps, and no running backs even cracked 850 snaps. However, when ranking a team's best fantasy QB, RB, and WR, the snap totals line up more with the fantasy points and less with the position.

A team's highest scoring fantasy player averaged 914 snaps. Their second highest scorer averaged just 34 snaps less at 880. The third tier has an average of just 635 snaps, a massive drop of nearly 30 percent from the second tier. However, when looking at points per snap, the third tier was actually better than the second tier:

There could be a variety of explanations as to why the third tier was actually more effective with their snaps than the second tier, but it's certainly a head-scratcher.

My best explanation is that the third tier is home to more injury victims and late starters than the second tier. For example, Percy Harvin, DeMarco Murray, and Colin Kaepernick are all in the third tier for their respective teams. Harvin and Murray excelled whent hey were on the field, but they were injured for a large portion of the season. Kaepernick didn't get his chance until the season was well underway. So while he's in the third tier for the 49ers, it's only because of when he started.

BEST FANTASY TRIO

No surprise here. The best fantasy trio of 2012 was Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Stevan Ridley of the New England Patriots. Those three combined for an average of 282.1 fantasy points on the season, which is above the league team leader average of 278.8 points. Fantasy footballers owning one of these three players were aided by New England’s absurd snap totals.

Brady took 1,231 snaps on the season, the most since PFF started counting in 2008. New England’s prolific offense went through these three players, and it showed int he fantasy totals. Brady had the third most fantasy points among quarterbacks this season, Welker had the seventh most among receivers, and Ridley had the 15th-most among running backs. And, even though his position wasn’t counted for in this research, Rob Gronkowski had the fifth most fantasy points among tight ends (second most in standard leagues) in just 11 games.

The margin of error between this trio’s fantasy ranking and New England’s offensive PFF ranking was just one. New England had the second best offensive PFF grade (240.7) for the third year in a row. With all of the major parts returning (aside from the possibility of Wes Welker leaving, which I don’t think will happen), it’s a safe to say that the Patriots will have an excellent pool for fantasy picking again next season.

WORST FANTASY TRIO

For the second time in the last three years, the Arizona Cardinals have had one of the two worst offensive PFF grades in the league. What made 2012 especially bad, though, is how far behind the rest of the league their offense graded. With a PFF grade of -188.3, the Cardinals were more than 120 grade points away from the next worst team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cardinals offense was close to three times more inept than the Jaguars. That’s bad.

Despite having a terrible season, especially when you consider where he was drafted, Larry Fitzgerald led Arizona with 174.8 fantasy points on the season. Compared to all other team leaders, Fitzgerald’s 174.8 points were the lowest.

If you think that’s bad, consider this: Arizona’s highest scoring quarterback (Kevin Kolb, 91.8 points) and running back (LaRod Stephens-Howling, 82.7 points) combined for less points than Fitzgerald. Andre Roberts did nearly outscore Fitzgerald with 172.3 points, but only one player per position per team can qualify.

The average margin of error between this trio’s fantasy rankings and Arizona’s offensive PFF ranking was zero. They were both dead last.

BIGGEST DEVIATION

As noted earlier, Chicago’s trio of Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Jay Cutler were much more successful in the fantasy world than their offense was in the real world, as PFF grade suggests. There was a differential of 23 between their fantasy rank and Chicago’s offensive PFF grade. Why was there such a large gap?

The most obvious explanation is the lack of supporting help. Marshall, Forte, and Cutler were three of only six Bears that recorded an offensive PFF grade in the green. Those three players combined for a PFF grade of 32. The rest of the offense combined for a PFF grade of -67.3.

Marshall in particular was much better than any other Chicago receiver. He had 994 snaps, more than Alshon Jeffery and Earl Bennett combined. His 181 targets were 41 more and his 118 receptions were 39 more than all of Chicago’s receivers combined.

Marshall, Forte, and Cutler truly were Chicago’s only stars on offense, and they happen to be a QB, RB, and WR. That explains why there was such a large deviation between their fantasy success and their team’s PFF grade.

Below is the full list of team leaders, sorted alphabetically: